A machine learning-based approach to determine infection status in recipients of BBV152 whole virion inactivated SARS-CoV-2 vaccine for serological surveys

Data science has been an invaluable part of the COVID-19 pandemic response with multiple applications, ranging from tracking viral evolution to understanding the effectiveness of interventions. Asymptomatic breakthrough infections have been a major problem during the ongoing surge of Delta variant globally. Serological discrimination of vaccine response from infection has so far been limited to Spike protein vaccines used in the higher-income regions. Here, we show for the first time how statistical and machine learning (ML) approaches can discriminate SARS-CoV-2 infection from immune response to an inactivated whole virion vaccine (BBV152, Covaxin, India), thereby permitting real-world vaccine effectiveness assessments from cohort-based serosurveys in Asia and Africa where such vaccines are commonly used. Briefly, we accessed serial data on Anti-S and Anti-NC antibody concentration values, along with age, sex, number of doses, and number of days since the last vaccine dose for 1823 Covaxin recipients. An ensemble ML model, incorporating a consensus clustering approach alongside the support vector machine (SVM) model, was built on 1063 samples where reliable qualifying data existed, and then applied to the entire dataset. Of 1448 self-reported negative subjects, 724 were classified as infected. Since the vaccine contains wild-type virus and the antibodies induced will neutralize wild type much better than Delta variant, we determined the relative ability of a random subset of such samples to neutralize Delta versus wild type strain. In 100 of 156 samples, where ML prediction differed from self-reported uninfected status, Delta variant, was neutralized more effectively than the wild type, which cannot happen without infection. The fraction rose to 71.8% (28 of 39) in subjects predicted to be infected during the surge, which is concordant with the percentage of sequences classified as Delta (75.6%-80.2%) over the same period.

Clinicogenomic analysis of breakthrough infections by SARS CoV2 variants after ChAdOx1 nCoV- 19 vaccination in healthcare workers

BackgroundIndia saw a massive surge and emergence of SARS CoV2 variants. We elucidated clinical and humoral immune response and genomic analysis of vaccine breakthrough (VBT) infections after ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 vaccine in healthcare workers (HCWs). MethodsThe study was conducted on 1858 HCWs receiving two doses of ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 vaccine. Serial blood samples were collected to measure SARS CoV2 IgG and neutralizing antibodies. 46 RT-PCR positive samples from VBT infections were subjected to whole genome sequencing (WGS). ResultsInfection was confirmed in 219 (11.79%) HCWs of which 21.46% (47/219) were non-vaccinated, significantly more (p <0.001) than 9.52% (156/1639) vaccinated group. VBT infections were significantly higher in doctors and nurses compared to other hospital staff (p <0.001). Unvaccinated individuals had 1.57 times higher risk of infection compared to partially vaccinated (p 0.02) and 2.49 times than fully vaccinated (<0.001). Partially vaccinated were at higher risk of infection than fully vaccinated (RR 1.58,p 0.01). There were 3 (1.36%) severe cases and 1 death in unvaccinated group compared to none in the vaccinated. Non-response after 14 days of second dose was seen in 6.5% (3/46) and low antibody levels (1-4.62 S/CO) in 8.69% (4/46). Delta variant (B.1.617.2) was dominant (69.5%) and reinfection was documented in 4 (0.06%) HCWs. ConclusionsNearly one in ten vaccinated HCWs can get infected, more so with only single dose (13.65%) than two doses (8.62%). Fully vaccinated are better protected with higher humoral immune response. Genomic analysis revealed an alarming rise of Delta variant (B.1.617.2) in VBT infections.

Human genetic factors associated with pneumonia susceptibility, a cue for COVID-19 mortality

The risk for community acquired pneumonia (CAP) is partially driven by genetics. To identify the CAP-associated genetic risk loci, we performed a meta-analysis of clinically diagnosed CAP (3,310 individuals) with 2,655 healthy controls. The findings revealed CYP1A1 variants (rs2606345, rs4646903, rs1048943) associated with pneumonia. We observed rs2606345 [G vs T; OR=1.49(1.29-1.69); p=0.0001; I2= 15.5%], and rs1048943 [T vs G; OR= 1.31(0.90-1.71); p=0.002; I2=19.3%] as risk markers and rs4646903 [T vs C; OR= 0.79(0.62-0.96); p=0.03; I2=0%] as a protective marker for susceptibility to CAP, when compared with healthy controls. Our meta-analysis showed the presence of CYP1A1 SNP alleles contributing significant risk toward pneumonia susceptibility. Interestingly, we observed a striking difference of allele frequency for rs2606345 (CYP1A1) among Europeans, Africans and Asians which may provide a possible link for observed variations in death due to coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), a viral pneumonia. We report, for the first time, a significant positive correlation for the risk allele (T or A) of rs2606345, with a higher COVID-19 mortality rate worldwide and within a genetically heterogeneous nation like India. Mechanistically, the risk allele A (rs2606345) is associated with lower expression of CYP1A1 and presumably leads to reduced capacity for xenobiotic detoxification. We note that ambient air pollution, a powerful inducer of CYP1A1 gene expression, is globally associated with lower, not higher mortality, as would normally be predicted. In conclusion, we find that CYP1A1 alleles are associated with CAP mortality, presumably via altered xenobiotic metabolism. We speculate that gene-environment interactions governing CYP1A1 expression may influence COVID-19 mortality.

Genomic characterization and Epidemiology of an emerging SARS-CoV-2 variant in Delhi, India

Delhi, the national capital of India, has experienced multiple SARS-CoV-2 outbreaks in 2020 and reached a population seropositivity of over 50% by 2021. During April 2021, the city became overwhelmed by COVID-19 cases and fatalities, as a new variant B.1.617.2 (Delta) replaced B.1.1.7 (Alpha). A Bayesian model explains the growth advantage of Delta through a combination of increased transmissibility and partial reduction of immunity elicited by prior infection (median estimates; x1.5-fold, 20% reduction). Seropositivity of an employee and family cohort increased from 42% to 86% between March and July 2021, with 27% reinfections, as judged by increased antibody concentration after previous decline. The likely high transmissibility and partial evasion of immunity by the Delta variant contributed to an overwhelming surge in Delhi. One-Sentence SummaryDelhi experienced an overwhelming surge of COVID-19 cases and fatalities peaking in May 2021 as the highly transmissible and immune evasive Delta variant replaced the Alpha variant.

SARS-CoV-2 B.1.617 emergence and sensitivity to vaccine-elicited antibodies

The SARS-CoV-2 B.1.617.2 (Delta) variant was first identified in the state of Maharashtra in late 2020 and spread throughout India, outcompeting pre-existing lineages including B.1.617.1 (Kappa) and B.1.1.7 (Alpha). In vitro, B.1.617.2 is 6-fold less sensitive to serum neutralising antibodies from recovered individuals, and 8-fold less sensitive to vaccine-elicited antibodies as compared to wild type Wuhan-1 bearing D614G. Serum neutralising titres against B.1.617.2 were lower in ChAdOx-1 versus BNT162b2 vaccinees. B.1.617.2 spike pseudotyped viruses exhibited compromised sensitivity to monoclonal antibodies against the receptor binding domain (RBD) and N-terminal domain (NTD), in particular to the clinically approved bamlavinimab and imdevimab monoclonal antibodies. B.1.617.2 demonstrated higher replication efficiency in both airway organoid and human airway epithelial systems as compared to B.1.1.7, associated with B.1.617.2 spike being in a predominantly cleaved state compared to B.1.1.7. Additionally we observed that B.1.617.2 had higher replication and spike mediated entry as compared to B.1.617.1, potentially explaining B.1.617.2 dominance. In an analysis of over 130 SARS-CoV-2 infected healthcare workers across three centres in India during a period of mixed lineage circulation, we observed substantially reduced ChAdOx-1 vaccine efficacy against B.1.617.2 relative to non-B.1.617.2. Compromised vaccine efficacy against the highly fit and immune evasive B.1.617.2 Delta variant warrants continued infection control measures in the post-vaccination era.

Effect Monitoring and Insights from Vaccination program of Healthcare Workforce from a tertiary level hospital in India against SARS-CoV-2.

Immunization is expected to confer protection against infection and severe disease for vaccinees, while reducing risks to unimmunized populations by inhibiting transmission. Here, based on serial serological studies, we show that during a severe SARS-CoV2 Delta-variant outbreak in Delhi, 25.3% (95% CI 16.9 - 35.2) of previously uninfected, ChAdOx1-nCoV19 double vaccinated, healthcare-workers (HCW) were infected within a period of less than two months, based on serology. Induction of anti-spike response was similar between groups with breakthrough infection (541 U/ml, IQR 374) or not (342 U/ml, IQR 497), as was induction of neutralization activity to wildtype. Most infections were unrecognized. The Delta-variant thus causes frequent unrecognized breakthrough infections in adequately immunized subjects, reducing any herd-effect of immunity, and requiring reinstatement of preventive measures such as masking.

Insights from a Pan India Sero-Epidemiological survey (Phenome-India Cohort) for SARS-CoV2

To understand the spread of SARS-CoV2, in August and September 2020, the Council of Scientific and Industrial Research (India), conducted a sero-survey across its constituent laboratories and centers across India. Of 10,427 volunteers, 1058 (10.14%) tested positive for SARS CoV2 anti-nucleocapsid (anti-NC) antibodies; 95% with surrogate neutralization activity. Three-fourth recalled no symptoms. Repeat serology tests at 3 (n=346) and 6 (n=35) months confirmed stability of antibody response and neutralization potential. Local sero-positivity was higher in densely populated cities and was inversely correlated with a 30 day change in regional test positivity rates (TPR). Regional seropositivity above 10% was associated with declining TPR. Personal factors associated with higher odds of sero-positivity were high-exposure work (Odds Ratio, 95% CI, p value; 2{middle dot}23, 1{middle dot}92-2{middle dot}59, 6{middle dot}5E-26), use of public transport (1{middle dot}79, 1{middle dot}43-2{middle dot}24, 2{middle dot}8E-06), not smoking (1{middle dot}52, 1{middle dot}16-1{middle dot}99, 0{middle dot}02), non-vegetarian diet (1{middle dot}67, 1{middle dot}41-1{middle dot}99, 3{middle dot}0E-08), and B blood group (1{middle dot}36,1{middle dot}15-1{middle dot}61, 0{middle dot}001). Impact StatementWidespread asymptomatic and undetected SARS-CoV2 infection affected more than a 100 million Indians by September 2020. Declining new cases thereafter may be due to persisting humoral immunity amongst sub-communities with high exposure. FundingCouncil of Scientific and Industrial Research, India (CSIR)

COVID-19 Risk Stratification and Mortality Prediction in Hospitalized Indian Patients

The clinical course of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) infection is highly variable with the vast majority recovering uneventfully but a small fraction progressing to severe disease and death. Appropriate and timely supportive care can reduce mortality and it is critical to evolve better patient risk stratification based on simple clinical data, so as to perform effective triage during strains on the healthcare infrastructure. This study presents risk stratification and mortality prediction models based on usual clinical data from 544 COVID-19 patients from New Delhi, India using machine learning methods. An XGboost classifier yielded the best performance on risk stratification (F1 score of 0.81). A logistic regression model yielded the best performance on mortality prediction (F1 score of 0.71). Significant biomarkers for predicting risk and mortality were identified. Examination of the data in comparison to a similar dataset with a Wuhan cohort of 375 patients was undertaken to understand the much lower mortality rates in India and the possible reasons thereof. The comparison indicated higher survival rate in the Delhi cohort even when patients had similar parameters as the Wuhan patients who died. Steroid administration was very frequent in Delhi patients, especially in surviving patients whose biomarkers indicated severe disease. This study helps in identifying the high-risk patient population and suggests treatment protocols that may be useful in countries with high mortality rates.

Validation of expert system enhanced deep learning algorithm for automated screening for COVID-Pneumonia on chest X-rays

The coronavirus disease of 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic exposed a limitation of artificial intelligence (AI) based medical image interpretation systems. Early in the pandemic, when need was greatest, the absence of sufficient training data prevented effective deep learning (DL) solutions. Even now, there is a need for Chest-X-ray (CxR) screening tools in low and middle income countries (LMIC), when RT-PCR is delayed, to exclude COVID-19 pneumonia (Cov-Pneum) requiring transfer to higher care. In absence of local LMIC data and poor portability of CxR DL algorithms, a new approach is needed. Axiomatically, it is faster to repurpose existing data than to generate new datasets. Here, we describe CovBaseAI, an explainable tool which uses an ensemble of three DL models and an expert decision system (EDS) for Cov-Pneum diagnosis, trained entirely on datasets from the pre-COVID-19 period. Portability, performance, and explainability of CovBaseAI was primarily validated on two independent datasets. First, 1401 randomly selected CxR from an Indian quarantine-center to assess effectiveness in excluding radiologic Cov-Pneum that may require higher care. Second, a curated dataset with 434 RT-PCR positive cases of varying levels of severity and 471 historical scans containing normal studies and non-COVID pathologies, to assess performance in advanced medical settings. CovBaseAI had accuracy of 87% with negative predictive value of 98% in the quarantine-center data for Cov-Pneum. However, sensitivity varied from 0.66 to 0.90 depending on whether RT-PCR or radiologist opinion was set as ground truth. This tool with explainability feature has better performance than publicly available algorithms trained on COVID-19 data but needs further improvement.

A rapid and sensitive method to detect SARS-CoV-2 virus using targeted-mass spectrometry

In the last few months, there has been a global catastrophic outbreak of severe acute respiratory syndrome disease caused by the novel corona virus SARS-CoV-2 affecting millions of people worldwide. Early diagnosis and isolation is key to contain the rapid spread of the virus. Towards this goal, we report a simple, sensitive and rapid method to detect the virus using a targeted mass spectrometric approach, which can directly detect the presence of virus from naso-oropharyngeal swabs. Using a multiple reaction monitoring we can detect the presence of two peptides specific to SARS-CoV-2 in a 2.3 minute gradient run with 100% specificity and 90.4 % sensitivity when compared to RT-PCR. Importantly, we further show that these peptides could be detected even in the patients who have recovered from the symptoms and have tested negative for the virus by RT-PCR highlighting the sensitivity of the technique. This method has the translational potential of in terms of the rapid diagnostics of symptomatic and asymptomatic COVID-19 and can augment current methods available for diagnosis of SARS-CoV-2.

Evaluation of inhibitory effect of the plant Phyllanthus amarus against dermatophytic fungi Microsporum gypseum / 生物医学与环境科学（英文）

<p><b>OBJECTIVE</b>The antifungal activity of various solvent extracts (such as ether, chloroform, ethyl acetate and ethyl alcohol) of the plant Phyllanthus amarus against dermatophytic fungi Microsporum gypseum was observed.</p><p><b>METHOD</b>Antifungal bioassay in terms of reduction in weight, colony diameter and sporulation of the target fungal colony was carried out using Broth Dilution method. Results Root part of the plant, extracted in various organic solvents did not show any noticeable antifungal activity. The percentage inhibition observed in different solvent extracts of aerial part was found as reduction in weight: chloroform [50.3%], ethyl acetate [27.7%] and ethyl alcohol [12.1%], reduction in colony diameter: chloroform [53.4%], ethyl acetate [31.4%] and ethyl alcohol [15.0%] and reduction in sporulation: maximum inhibition in chloroform extract, at test concentration of 4000 ppm at incubation period of 8 days.</p><p><b>CONCLUSION</b>Chloroform fraction of the aerial part of the plant P. amarus shows significant inhibitory effect against dermatophytic fungi M. gypseum and requires chemical characterization for its bioactive principle.</p>