Estimation of DENV-2 Transmission as a Function of Site-Specific Entomological Parameters from Three Cities in Colombia.

BACKGROUND: Measuring dengue virus transmission in endemic areas is a difficult task as many variables drive transmission, and often are not independent of one another. OBJECTIVES: We aimed to determine the utility of vectorial capacity to explain the observed dengue infection rates in three hyperendemic cities in Colombia, and tested hypotheses related to three variables: mosquito density, effective vector competence, and biting rate. METHODS: We estimated two of the most influential entomological variables related to cumulative vectorial capacity, which is a modification of the traditional vectorial capacity equation, of three Colombian mosquito populations. Laboratory studies were undertaken to measure vector competence and man biting rate of local mosquito populations. In addition, the assessment of cumulative vectorial capacity also incorporated site-specific estimations of mosquito density and the probability of daily survival from previous studies conducted in those cities. FINDINGS: We found that the biting rates and mosquito infection rates differed among populations of mosquitoes from these three cities, resulting in differences in the site-specific measures of transmission potential. Specifically, we found that using site-specific entomological measures to populate the cumulative vectorial capacity equation was best at recapitulating observed mosquito infection rates when mosquito density was discounted compared to when we incorporated site-specific density measures. CONCLUSIONS: Specific mosquito-biting rate is likely sufficient to explain transmission differences in these three cities, confirming that this parameter is a critical parameter when predicting and assessing dengue transmission in three Colombian cities with different field observed transmission patterns.

Potential distribution of mosquito vector species in a primary malaria endemic region of Colombia.

Rapid transformation of natural ecosystems changes ecological conditions for important human disease vector species; therefore, an essential task is to identify and understand the variables that shape distributions of these species to optimize efforts toward control and mitigation. Ecological niche modeling was used to estimate the potential distribution and to assess hypotheses of niche similarity among the three main malaria vector species in northern Colombia: Anopheles nuneztovari, An. albimanus, and An. darlingi. Georeferenced point collection data and remotely sensed, fine-resolution satellite imagery were integrated across the Urabá -Bajo Cauca-Alto Sinú malaria endemic area using a maximum entropy algorithm. Results showed that An. nuneztovari has the widest geographic distribution, occupying almost the entire study region; this niche breadth is probably related to the ability of this species to colonize both, natural and disturbed environments. The model for An. darlingi showed that most suitable localities for this species in Bajo Cauca were along the Cauca and Nechí river. The riparian ecosystems in this region and the potential for rapid adaptation by this species to novel environments, may favor the establishment of populations of this species. Apparently, the three main Colombian Anopheles vector species in this endemic area do not occupy environments either with high seasonality, or with low seasonality and high NDVI values. Estimated overlap in geographic space between An. nuneztovari and An. albimanus indicated broad spatial and environmental similarity between these species. An. nuneztovari has a broader niche and potential distribution. Dispersal ability of these species and their ability to occupy diverse environmental situations may facilitate sympatry across many environmental and geographic contexts. These model results may be useful for the design and implementation of malaria species-specific vector control interventions optimized for this important malaria region.

Ecological niche and geographic distribution of the Chagas disease vector, Triatoma dimidiata (Reduviidae: Triatominae): Evidence for niche differentiation among cryptic species.

The principal vector of Chagas disease in Central America, Triatoma dimidiata, shows considerable diversity of habitat, phenotype, and genotype across its geographic range (central Mexico to southern Ecuador), suggesting that it constitutes a complex of cryptic species. However, no consistent picture of the magnitude of ecological differentiation among populations of this complex has yet been developed. To assess ecological variation across the complex, we broadened the geographic coverage of phylogeographic data and analyses for the complex into Colombia and Mexico, with additional nuclear (ITS-2) and mitochondrial (ND4) DNA sequences. This information allowed us to describe distributions of previously documented clades in greater detail: Group I, from central Guatemala south to Ecuador; Group II, across Mexico south through the Yucatán Peninsula to Belize and northern Guatemala; and Group III, in northern Guatemala, Belize, and the Yucatán Peninsula. Using ecological niche modeling, we assessed ecological niche differentiation among the groups using four hypotheses of accessible areas (M) across the distribution of the complex. Results indicated clear niche divergence of Group I from Group II: the speciation process thus appears to have involved genetic and ecological changes, suggesting divergence in populations in response to environmental conditions.

Spatio-temporal distribution of Aedes aegypti (Diptera: Culicidae) mitochondrial lineages in cities with distinct dengue incidence rates suggests complex population dynamics of the dengue vector in Colombia.

BACKGROUND: Aedes aegypti is the primary vector of the four serotypes of dengue virus (DENV1-4), Chikungunya and yellow fever virus to humans. Previous population genetic studies have revealed a particular genetic structure among the vector populations in the Americas that suggests differences in the ability to transmit DENV. In Colombia, despite its high epidemiologic importance, the genetic population structure and the phylogeographic depiction of Ae. aegypti, as well as its relationship with the epidemiologic landscapes in cities with heterogeneous incidence levels, remains unknown. We conducted a spatiotemporal analysis with the aim of determining the genetic structure and phylogeography of Colombian populations of Ae. aegypti among cities with different eco-epidemiologic characteristics with regard to DENV. METHODS/FINDINGS: Mitochondrial cytochrome oxidase C subunit 1 (COI)--NADH dehydrogenase subunit 4 (ND4) genes were sequenced and analyzed from 341 adult mosquitoes collected during 2012 and 2013 in the Colombian cities of Bello, Riohacha and Villavicencio, which exhibit low, medium and high levels of incidence of DENV, respectively. The results demonstrated a low genetic differentiation over time and a high genetic structure between the cities due to changes in the frequency of two highly supported genetic groups. The phylogeographic analyses indicated that one group (associated with West African populations) was found in all the cities throughout the sampling while the second group (associated with East African populations) was found in all the samples from Bello and in only one sampling from Riohacha. Environmental factors such as the use of chemical insecticides showed a significant correlation with decreasing genetic diversity, indicating that environmental factors affect the population structure of Ae. aegypti across time and space in these cities. CONCLUSIONS: Our results suggest that two Ae. aegypti lineages are present in Colombia; one that is widespread and related to a West African conspecific, and a second that may have been recently introduced and is related to an East African conspecific. The first lineage can be found in cities showing a high incidence of dengue fever and the use of chemical insecticides, whereas the second is present in cities showing a low incidence of dengue fever where the use of chemical insecticides is not constant. This study helps to improve our knowledge of the population structure of Ae. aegypti involved in the diversity of dengue fever epidemiology in Colombia.

Spatial and temporal dynamics of Aedes aegypti larval sites in Bello, Colombia.

Counts of immature stages of the mosquito Aedes aegypti have been used to calculate several entomological indices of dengue vector abundance. Some studies have concluded that these indices can be used as indicators of dengue epidemic risk, while other studies have failed to find a predictive relationship. Ecological niche models have been able to predict distributional patterns in space and time, not only of vectors, but also of the diseases that they transmit. In this study, we used Landsat 7 ETM+ images and two niche-modeling algorithms to estimate the local-landscape ecological niche and the dynamics of Ae. aegypti larval habitats in Bello, Colombia, and to evaluate their potential spatial and temporal distribution. Our models showed low omission error with high confidence levels: about 13.4% of the area presents conditions consistently suitable for breeding across the entire study period (2002-2008). The proportion of neighborhoods predicted to be suitable showed a positive association with dengue case rates, whereas the vector-focused Bretau index had no relationship to case rates. As a consequence, niche models appear to offer a superior option for predictive evaluation of dengue transmission risk and anticipating the potential for outbreaks.

Mapping environmental dimensions of dengue fever transmission risk in the Aburrá Valley, Colombia.

Dengue fever (DF) is endemic in Medellín, the second largest Colombian city, and surrounding municipalities. We used DF case and satellite environmental data to investigate conditions associated with suitable areas for DF occurrence in 2008 in three municipalities (Bello, Medellín and Itagüí). We develop spatially stratified tests of ecological niche models, and found generally good predictive ability, with all model tests yielding results significantly better than random expectations. We concluded that Bello and Medellín present ecological conditions somewhat different from, and more suitable for DF than, those of Itagüí. We suggest that areas predicted by our models as suitable for DF could be considered as at-risk, and could be used to guide campaigns for DF prevention in these municipalities.