The Integrated Policy Package Assessment approach: elaborating ex ante knowledge in the field of urban mobility.

Background: In response to climate change challenges, a main policy emphasis is on transitioning the energy system from high- to low-carbon energy supply. The German energy transition is first and foremost based on political decisions and interventions. These decisions need to be assessed ex ante to ensure a good governance approach to energy policies, for which this paper introduces the Integrated Policy Package Assessment approach (IPPA). IPPA consists of four steps: design, assessment, evaluation and discourse. Results: The results section illustrates the IPPA framework by applying it to urban passenger transport as an example case. First, the design phase was used to elaborate two complementary policy packages each consisting of several policy measures in the transformation pathways of "multi- and inter-modality", and "alternative drive". Second, the individual measures of the packages were impact-analysed by a large number of individual impact studies from various disciplines. Synthesizing the individual study results, we developed an impact assessment matrix for impact evaluation. The matrix covers the impact categories: technology development, sector integration, environment, social resonance, and institutional factors. In a further step, the key findings of the impact assessment were reflected and reviewed from the perspectives of various stakeholders and practice experts through a practice-science dialogue on transforming the urban passenger transport system. Conclusions: The discussion and conclusion sections outline the main findings relating to content and process aspects, when applying the IPPA framework to a policy package in urban transport.

Scientific truth or debate: On the link between perceived scientific consensus and belief in anthropogenic climate change.

Scientists overwhelmingly agree that climate change exists and is caused by human activity. It has been argued that communicating the consensus can counter climate scepticism, given that perceived scientific consensus is a major factor predicting public belief that climate change is anthropogenic. However, individuals may hold different models of science, potentially affecting their interpretation of scientific consensus. Using representative surveys in the United Kingdom, France, Germany and Norway, we assessed whether the relationship between perceived scientific consensus and belief in anthropogenic climate change is conditioned by a person's viewing science as 'the search for truth' or as 'debate'. Results show that perceived scientific consensus is higher among climate change believers and moreover, significantly predicts belief in anthropogenic climate change. This relationship is stronger among people holding a model of science as the 'search for truth'. These results help to disentangle the effect of implicit epistemological assumptions underlying the public understanding of the climate change debate.