Alongshore upwelling modulates the intensity of marine heatwaves in a temperate coastal sea.

Analyses of long-term temperature records based on satellite data have revealed an increase in the frequency and intensity of marine heatwaves (MHWs) in the world oceans, a trend directly associated with global change according to climate model simulations. However, these analyses often target open ocean pelagic systems and rarely include local scale, field temperature records that are more adequate to assess the impact of MHWs close to the land-sea interface. Here, we compared the incidence and characteristics of open ocean MHWs detected by satellites with those observed in the field over two decades (1998-2019) at two temperate intertidal locations in the central Cantabrian Sea, southern Bay of Biscay. Satellite retrievals tended to smooth out cooling events associated with intermittent, alongshore upwelling, especially during summer. These biases propagated to the characterization of MHWs and resulted in an overestimation of their incidence and duration close to the coast. To reconcile satellite and field records, we developed a downscaling approach based on regression modeling that enabled the reconstruction of past temperatures and analyze MHW trends. Despite the cooling effect due to upwelling, the temperature reconstructions revealed a six-fold increase in the incidence of MHWs in the Cantabrian Sea over the last four decades. A comparison between static (no trend) vs. dynamic (featuring a linear warming trend) MHW detection thresholds allowed us to attribute over half of the increase in MHW incidence to the ocean warming trend. Our results highlight the importance of local processes to fully characterize the complexity and impacts of MHWs on marine coastal ecosystems and call for the conservation of climate refugia associated with coastal upwelling to counter the impacts of climate warming.

Demography_Lab, an educational application to evaluate population growth: Unstructured and matrix models.

Training in Population Ecology asks for scalable applications capable of embarking students on a trip from basic concepts to the projection of populations under the various effects of density dependence and stochasticity. Demography_Lab is an educational tool for teaching Population Ecology aspiring to cover such a wide range of objectives. The application uses stochastic models to evaluate the future of populations. Demography_Lab may accommodate a wide range of life cycles and can construct models for populations with and without an age or stage structure. Difference equations are used for unstructured populations and matrix models for structured populations. Both types of models operate in discrete time. Models can be very simple, constructed with very limited demographic information or parameter-rich, with a complex density-dependence structure and detailed effects of the different sources of stochasticity. Demography_Lab allows for deterministic projections, asymptotic analysis, the extraction of confidence intervals for demographic parameters, and stochastic projections. Stochastic population growth is evaluated using up to three sources of stochasticity: environmental and demographic stochasticity and sampling error in obtaining the projection matrix. The user has full control on the effect of stochasticity on vital rates. The effect of the three sources of stochasticity may be evaluated independently for each vital rate. The user has also full control on density dependence. It may be included as a ceiling population size controlling the number of individuals in the population or it may be evaluated independently for each vital rate. Sensitivity analysis can be done for the asymptotic population growth rate or for the probability of extinction. Elasticity of the probability of extinction may be evaluated in response to changes in vital rates, and in response to changes in the intensity of density dependence and environmental stochasticity.

A regime shift in intertidal assemblages triggered by loss of algal canopies: A multidecadal survey.

Canopy-forming macroalgae recently experienced a worldwide decline. This is relevant, because canopies sustain complex food webs in temperate coasts. We assessed the die-back of the canopy-forming alga Fucus serratus in N Spain, at its warm distributional range boundary, and its effects on associated assemblages. We combined long-term descriptive surveys with canopy-removal experiments. Results showed that rapid shifts to turf-forming communities were mostly the direct consequence of the canopy loss, rather than a concurrent process directly triggered by climate change. The switch alters the whole food web, as the prominent role of F.serratus and other cold-temperate intertidal fucoids is not being replaced by functionally equivalent species. Canopy loss caused a rapid biotic homogenization at regional scale which is spreading towards the west, from the edge to the central part of the former distributional range of F.serratus in N Spain. The most obvious effect is the ecological and functional impoverishment of the coastal system.

Spatio-temporal dynamics of Codium populations along the rocky shores of N and NW Spain.

The green alga Codium fragile ssp. fragile (hereafter C. fragile) has long been assumed to outcompete and displace its native congeners via cryptic invasion. We analysed the population dynamics of the exotic C. fragile and native congeners and their relative abundance on intertidal shores in N-NW Spain. Our results did not support the existence of current competitive displacement by the exotic species. The presence of C. fragile was clearly seasonal, while the native C. tomentosum was more persistent throughout the year, due to a higher frequency of frond sprouting from perennial basal fragments. However, our results also indicated an increase in the proportion of C. fragile relative to native species towards inner areas of the Bay of Biscay, which was correlated with environmental gradients. The greater tolerance of C. fragile to environmental stress and its opportunistic abilities may favour establishment and spread of the species under a warming scenario.

Pop-Inference: An educational application to evaluate statistical differences among populations.

Pop-Inference is an educational tool designed to help teaching of hypothesis testing using populations. The application allows for the statistical comparison of demographic parameters among populations. Input demographic data are projection matrices or raw demographic data. Randomization tests are used to compare populations. The tests evaluate the hypothesis that demographic parameters differ among groups of individuals more that should be expected from random allocation of individuals to populations. Confidence intervals for demographic parameters are obtained using the bootstrap. Tests may be global or pairwise. In addition to tests on differences, one-way life table response experiments (LTRE) are available for random and fixed factors. Planned (a priori) comparisons are possible. Power of comparison tests is evaluated by constructing the distribution of the test statistic when the null hypothesis is true and when it is false. The relationship between power and sample size is explored by evaluating differences among populations at increasing population sizes, while keeping vital rates constant.

Effects of the 'Prestige' oil spill on macroalgal assemblages: large-scale comparison.

An assessment of the effects of the 'Prestige' oil spill on intertidal, macroalgal assemblages was carried out comparing abundance data obtained before and after the spill. Four zones in the North and Northwest coast of Spain were sampled, one of them located at the immediate vicinity of the spill, the zone most heavily oiled. Macroalgal assemblages had similar structure between years. Neither critical decrease in abundance of the dominant macroalgae, nor increase in opportunistic species were found. Some differences in abundance were observed, but they did not show any pattern, being more likely the result of the natural variability of the assemblage. Extensive, but not intense fuel deposition on the shores and a limited use of aggressive cleanup methods are suggested as possible causes for the lack of the effects in these assemblages after the 'Prestige' oil spill.

A continental scale evaluation of the role of limpet grazing on rocky shores.

It is critical for our knowledge of biodiversity and ecosystem processes to understand how individual species contribute to ecosystem processes and how these contributions vary in space and time. We used a manipulative field experiment in five locations over 17 degrees of latitude [from southern Portugal to the Isle of Man (British Isles)] to determine the relative response of rocky intertidal algal assemblages released from control by the grazing of limpets. Response ratios showed that when limpets were removed there was a trend of effects from north to south. In the north, grazing had a strong effect on algal assemblages, but removing grazers reduced spatial variability in assemblages. In the south, the effect of limpet grazing was far weaker and removal of grazers had a much reduced impact on spatial variability. Here we show a clear trophic control of an ecosystem in that grazing by limpets not only determines macroalgal abundance overall but also modifies ecosystem stability via variability in cover of algae.