Association between achieving adequate antenatal care and health-seeking behaviors: A study of Demographic and Health Surveys in 47 low- and middle-income countries.

BACKGROUND: Antenatal care (ANC) is essential for ensuring the well-being of pregnant women and their fetuses. This study models the association between achieving adequate ANC and various health and health-seeking indicators across wealth quintiles in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). METHODS AND FINDINGS: We analyzed data from 638,265 women across 47 LMICs using available Demographic and Health Surveys from 2010 to 2022. Via multilevel logistic regression analyses adjusted for a series of confounding variables and country and wealth quintile fixed effects, we estimated the projected impact of achieving adequate ANC utilization and quality on a series of health and health care indicators: facility birth, postnatal care, childhood immunizations, and childhood stunting and wasting. Achieving adequate levels of ANC utilization and quality (defined as at least 4 visits, blood pressure monitoring, and blood and urine testing) was positively associated with health-seeking behavior across the majority of countries. The strongest association was observed for facility birth, followed by postnatal care and child immunization. The strength of the associations varied across countries and wealth quintiles, with more significant ones observed in countries with lower baseline ANC utilization levels and among the lower wealth quintiles. The associations of ANC with childhood stunting and wasting were notably less statistically significant compared to other indicators. Despite rigorous adjustments for potential confounders, a limitation to the methodology is that it is possible that unobserved variables may still impact outcomes. CONCLUSIONS: Strengthening ANC is associated with improved use of other health care in LMICs. ANC could serve as a critical platform for improving health outcomes for mothers and their children, emphasizing its importance beyond direct impact on maternal and neonatal mortality.

Users' perception of quality as a driver of private healthcare use in Mexico: Insights from the People's Voice Survey.

OBJECTIVE: The Mexican government has pursued multiple initiatives to improve healthcare coverage and financial protection. Yet, out-of-pocket health spending and use of private sector providers in Mexico remains high. In this paper, we sought to describe the characteristics of public and private healthcare users, describe recent visit quality across provider types, and to assess whether perceiving the public healthcare sector as poor quality is associated with private health sector use. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We analyzed the cross-sectional People's Voice Survey conducted from December 2022 to January 2023. We used Chi-square tests to compare contextual, individual, and need-for-care factors and ratings of most recent visits between users of public (social security and other public providers) and private sector providers (stand-alone private providers and providers adjacent to pharmacies). We used a multivariable Poisson regression model to assess associations between low ratings of public healthcare sources and the use of private care. Among the 811 respondents with a healthcare visit in the past year, 31.2% used private sources. Private healthcare users were more educated and had higher incomes than public healthcare users. Quality of most recent visit was rated more highly in private providers (70.2% rating the visit as excellent or very good for stand-alone private providers and 54.3% for pharmacy-adjacent doctors) compared to social security (41.6%) and other public providers (46.6%). Those who perceived public health institutions as low quality had a higher probability of seeking private healthcare. CONCLUSION: Users rated public care visits poorly relative to private care; at the population level, perceptions of poor quality care may drive private care use and hence out-of-pocket costs. Improving public healthcare quality is necessary to ensure universal health coverage.

Routine data in a primary care performance dashboard, Ethiopia.

Objective: To explore the feasibility of building a primary care performance dashboard using DHIS2 data from Ethiopia's largest urban (Addis Ababa), agrarian (Oromia) and pastoral (Somali) regions. Methods: We extracted 26 data elements reported by 12 062 health facilities to DHIS2 for the period 1 July 2022 to 30 June 2023. Focusing on indicators of effectiveness, safety and user experience, we built 14 indicators of primary care performance covering reproductive, maternal and child health, human immunodeficiency virus, tuberculosis, noncommunicable disease care and antibiotic prescription. We assessed data completeness by calculating the proportion of facilities reporting each month, and examined the presence of extreme outliers and assessed external validity. Findings: At the regional level, average completeness across all data elements was highest in Addis Ababa (82.9%), followed by Oromia (66.2%) and Somali (52.6%). Private clinics across regions had low completeness, ranging from 38.6% in Somali to 58.7% in Addis Ababa. We found only a few outliers (334 of 816 578 observations) and noted that external validity was high for 11 of 14 indicators of primary care performance. However, the 12-month antiretroviral treatment retention rate and proportions of patients with controlled diabetes or hypertension exhibited poor external validity. Conclusion: The Ethiopian DHIS2 contains information for measuring primary care performance, using simple analytical methods, at national and regional levels and by facility type. Despite remaining data quality issues, the health management information system is an important data source for generating health system performance assessment measures on a national scale.

Population assessment of health system performance in 16 countries.

Objective: To demonstrate how the new internationally comparable instrument, the People's Voice Survey, can be used to contribute the perspective of the population in assessing health system performance in countries of all levels of income. Methods: We surveyed representative samples of populations in 16 low-, middle- and high-income countries on health-care utilization, experience and confidence during 2022-2023. We summarized and visualized data corresponding to the key domains of the World Health Organization universal health coverage framework for health system performance assessment. We examined correlation with per capita health spending by calculating Pearson coefficients, and within-country income-based inequities using the slope index of inequality. Findings: In the domain of care effectiveness, we found major gaps in health screenings and endorsement of public primary care. Only one in three respondents reported very good user experience during health visits, with lower proportions in low-income countries. Access to health care was rated highest of all domains; however, only half of the populations felt secure that they could access and afford high-quality care if they became ill. Populations rated the quality of private health systems higher than that of public health systems in most countries. Only half of respondents felt involved in decision-making (less in high-income countries). Within countries, we found statistically significant pro-rich inequalities across many indicators. Conclusion: Populations can provide vital information about the real-world function of health systems, complementing other system performance metrics. Population-wide surveys such as the People's Voice Survey should become part of regular health system performance assessments.

Data challenges for international health emergencies: lessons learned from ten international COVID-19 driver projects.

The COVID-19 pandemic highlighted the importance of international data sharing and access to improve health outcomes for all. The International COVID-19 Data Alliance (ICODA) programme enabled 12 exemplar or driver projects to use existing health-related data to address major research questions relating to the pandemic, and developed data science approaches that helped each research team to overcome challenges, accelerate the data research cycle, and produce rapid insights and outputs. These approaches also sought to address inequity in data access and use, test approaches to ethical health data use, and make summary datasets and outputs accessible to a wider group of researchers. This Health Policy paper focuses on the challenges and lessons learned from ten of the ICODA driver projects, involving researchers from 19 countries and a range of health-related datasets. The ICODA programme reviewed the time taken for each project to complete stages of the health data research cycle and identified common challenges in areas such as data sharing agreements and data curation. Solutions included provision of standard data sharing templates, additional data curation expertise at an early stage, and a trusted research environment that facilitated data sharing across national boundaries and reduced risk. These approaches enabled the driver projects to rapidly produce research outputs, including publications, shared code, dashboards, and innovative resources, which can all be accessed and used by other research teams to address global health challenges.

Population confidence in the health system in 15 countries: results from the first round of the People's Voice Survey.

Population confidence is essential to a well functioning health system. Using data from the People's Voice Survey-a novel population survey conducted in 15 low-income, middle-income, and high-income countries-we report health system confidence among the general population and analyse its associated factors. Across the 15 countries, fewer than half of respondents were health secure and reported being somewhat or very confident that they could get and afford good-quality care if very sick. Only a quarter of respondents endorsed their current health system, deeming it to work well with no need for major reform. The lowest support was in Peru, the UK, and Greece-countries experiencing substantial health system challenges. Wealthy, more educated, young, and female respondents were less likely to endorse the health system in many countries, portending future challenges for maintaining social solidarity for publicly financed health systems. In pooled analyses, the perceived quality of the public health system and government responsiveness to public input were strongly associated with all confidence measures. These results provide a post-COVID-19 pandemic baseline of public confidence in the health system. The survey should be repeated regularly to inform policy and improve health system accountability.

User-reported quality of care: findings from the first round of the People's Voice Survey in 14 countries.

High-quality care is essential for improving health outcomes, although many health systems struggle to maintain good quality. We use data from the People's Voice Survey-a nationally representative survey conducted in 14 high-income, middle-income, and low-income countries-to describe user-reported quality of most recent health care in the past 12 months. We described ratings for 14 measures of care competence, system competence, and user experience and assessed the relationship between visit quality factors and user recommendation of the facility. We disaggregated the data by high-need and underserved groups. The proportion of respondents rating their most recent visit as high quality ranged from 25% in Laos to 74% in the USA. The mean facility recommendation score was 7·7 out of 10. Individuals with high needs or who are underserved reported lower-quality services on average across countries. Countries with high health expenditure per capita tended to have better care ratings than countries with low health expenditure. Visit quality factors explained a high proportion of variation in facility recommendations relative to facility or demographic factors. These results show that user-reported quality is low but increases with high national health expenditure. Elevating care quality will require monitoring and improvements on multiple dimensions of care quality, especially in public systems.

Inequalities in health system coverage and quality: a cross-sectional survey of four Latin American countries.

The premise of health as a human right in Latin America has been challenged by health system fragmentation, quality gaps, a growing burden of chronic disease, sociopolitical upheaval, and the COVID-19 pandemic. We characterised inequities in health system quality in Colombia, Mexico, Peru, and Uruguay. We did a cross-sectional telephone survey with up to 1250 adults in each country. We created binary outcomes in coverage, user experience, system competence, and confidence in the system and calculated the slope index of inequality by income and education. Although access to care was high, only a third of respondents reported having a high-quality source of care and 25% of those with mental health needs had those needs met. Two-thirds of adults were able to access relevant preventive care and 42% of older adults were screened for cardiovascular disease. Telehealth access, communication and autonomy in most recent visit, reasonable waiting times, and receiving preventive health checks showed inequalities favouring people with a high income. In Uruguay, inequality between government and social security services explained a substantial proportion of disparities in preventive health access. In other study countries, inequalities were also substantial within government and social security subsectors. Essential health system functions are unequal in these four Latin American countries.

Health system quality and COVID-19 vaccination: a cross-sectional analysis in 14 countries.

The social and behavioural determinants of COVID-19 vaccination have been described previously. However, little is known about how vaccinated people use and rate their health system. We used surveys conducted in 14 countries to study the health system correlates of COVID-19 vaccination. Country-specific logistic regression models were adjusted for respondent age, education, income, chronic illness, history of COVID-19, urban residence, and minority ethnic, racial, or linguistic group. Estimates were summarised across countries using random effects meta-analysis. Vaccination coverage with at least two or three doses ranged from 29% in India to 85% in Peru. Greater health-care use, having a regular and high-quality provider, and receiving other preventive health services were positively associated with vaccination. Confidence in the health system and government also increased the odds of vaccination. By contrast, having unmet health-care needs or experiencing discrimination or a medical mistake decreased the odds of vaccination. Associations between health system predictors and vaccination tended to be stronger in high-income countries and in countries with the most COVID-19-related deaths. Access to quality health systems might affect vaccine decisions. Building strong primary care systems and ensuring a baseline level of quality that is affordable for all should be central to pandemic preparedness strategies.

Quality of routine health data at the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic in Ethiopia, Haiti, Laos, Nepal, and South Africa.

BACKGROUND: During the COVID-19 pandemic, governments and researchers have used routine health data to estimate potential declines in the delivery and uptake of essential health services. This research relies on the data being high quality and, crucially, on the data quality not changing because of the pandemic. In this paper, we investigated those assumptions and assessed data quality before and during COVID-19. METHODS: We obtained routine health data from the DHIS2 platforms in Ethiopia, Haiti, Lao People's Democratic Republic, Nepal, and South Africa (KwaZulu-Natal province) for a range of 40 indicators on essential health services and institutional deaths. We extracted data over 24 months (January 2019-December 2020) including pre-pandemic data and the first 9 months of the pandemic. We assessed four dimensions of data quality: reporting completeness, presence of outliers, internal consistency, and external consistency. RESULTS: We found high reporting completeness across countries and services and few declines in reporting at the onset of the pandemic. Positive outliers represented fewer than 1% of facility-month observations across services. Assessment of internal consistency across vaccine indicators found similar reporting of vaccines in all countries. Comparing cesarean section rates in the HMIS to those from population-representative surveys, we found high external consistency in all countries analyzed. CONCLUSIONS: While efforts remain to improve the quality of these data, our results show that several indicators in the HMIS can be reliably used to monitor service provision over time in these five countries.

Associations between the stringency of COVID-19 containment policies and health service disruptions in 10 countries.

BACKGROUND: Disruptions in essential health services during the COVID-19 pandemic have been reported in several countries. Yet, patterns in health service disruption according to country responses remain unclear. In this paper, we investigate associations between the stringency of COVID-19 containment policies and disruptions in 31 health services in 10 low- middle- and high-income countries in 2020. METHODS: Using routine health information systems and administrative data from 10 countries (Chile, Ethiopia, Ghana, Haiti, Lao People's Democratic Republic, Mexico, Nepal, South Africa, South Korea, and Thailand) we estimated health service disruptions for the period of April to December 2020 by dividing monthly service provision at national levels by the average service provision in the 15 months pre-COVID (January 2019-March 2020). We used the Oxford COVID-19 Government Response Tracker (OxCGRT) index and multi-level linear regression analyses to assess associations between the stringency of restrictions and health service disruptions over nine months. We extended the analysis by examining associations between 11 individual containment or closure policies and health service disruptions. Models were adjusted for COVID caseload, health service category and country GDP and included robust standard errors. FINDINGS: Chronic disease care was among the most affected services. Regression analyses revealed that a 10% increase in the mean stringency index was associated with a 3.3 percentage-point (95% CI -3.9, -2.7) reduction in relative service volumes. Among individual policies, curfews, and the presence of a state of emergency, had the largest coefficients and were associated with 14.1 (95% CI -19.6, 8.7) and 10.7 (95% CI -12.7, -8.7) percentage-point lower relative service volumes, respectively. In contrast, number of COVID-19 cases in 2020 was not associated with health service disruptions in any model. CONCLUSIONS: Although containment policies were crucial in reducing COVID-19 mortality in many contexts, it is important to consider the indirect effects of these restrictions. Strategies to improve the resilience of health systems should be designed to ensure that populations can continue accessing essential health care despite the presence of containment policies during future infectious disease outbreaks.

Tracking health system performance in times of crisis using routine health data: lessons learned from a multicountry consortium.

COVID-19 has prompted the use of readily available administrative data to track health system performance in times of crisis and to monitor disruptions in essential healthcare services. In this commentary we describe our experience working with these data and lessons learned across countries. Since April 2020, the Quality Evidence for Health System Transformation (QuEST) network has used administrative data and routine health information systems (RHIS) to assess health system performance during COVID-19 in Chile, Ethiopia, Ghana, Haiti, Lao People's Democratic Republic, Mexico, Nepal, South Africa, Republic of Korea and Thailand. We compiled a large set of indicators related to common health conditions for the purpose of multicountry comparisons. The study compiled 73 indicators. A total of 43% of the indicators compiled pertained to reproductive, maternal, newborn and child health (RMNCH). Only 12% of the indicators were related to hypertension, diabetes or cancer care. We also found few indicators related to mental health services and outcomes within these data systems. Moreover, 72% of the indicators compiled were related to volume of services delivered, 18% to health outcomes and only 10% to the quality of processes of care. While several datasets were complete or near-complete censuses of all health facilities in the country, others excluded some facility types or population groups. In some countries, RHIS did not capture services delivered through non-visit or nonconventional care during COVID-19, such as telemedicine. We propose the following recommendations to improve the analysis of administrative and RHIS data to track health system performance in times of crisis: ensure the scope of health conditions covered is aligned with the burden of disease, increase the number of indicators related to quality of care and health outcomes; incorporate data on nonconventional care such as telehealth; continue improving data quality and expand reporting from private sector facilities; move towards collecting patient-level data through electronic health records to facilitate quality-of-care assessment and equity analyses; implement more resilient and standardized health information technologies; reduce delays and loosen restrictions for researchers to access the data; complement routine data with patient-reported data; and employ mixed methods to better understand the underlying causes of service disruptions.

Equitable Distribution of Poor Quality of Care? Equity in Quality of Reproductive Health Services in Ethiopia.

The Ethiopian health system faces persistent inequities in health-care utilization and outcomes, despite continued efforts to expand health service coverage. There is little evidence in the literature describing the status of equity in the quality of healthcare. This paper aims to understand the disparities in quality of antenatal care (ANC) and family planning (FP) among the poor and non-poor communities. We used the 2016 Ethiopia Demographic and Health Survey (DHS) data to compute a Multidimensional Poverty Index (MPI), and the 2014 Service Provision Assessment (SPA) data to assess quality of ANC and FP services-defined as the level of adherence to World Health Organization (WHO) clinical and service guidelines. We merged the two datasets using geographical coordinates, and aggregated service users into facility catchment area clusters using a 2-km radius for urban and 10-km radius for rural facilities. We computed ANC and FP quality and MPI indices for each facility and assigned these to catchment areas. Using the international cutoff point for deprivation (MPI = 33.3%), we evaluated whether the quality of ANC and FP services varies by poor and non-poor catchment areas. We found that most of catchment areas (75.7%) were deprived. While the overall quality of ANC and FP services are low (33% and 34% respectively), we found little variation in the distribution of the quality of these services between poor and non-poor areas, urban and rural settings, or regionally. The short-term focus needs to be on improving the overall quality of services rather than on its distribution.

Effect of lifting COVID-19 restrictions on utilisation of primary care services in Nepal: a difference-in-differences analysis.

INTRODUCTION: An increasing number of studies have reported disruptions in health service utilisation due to the COVID-19 pandemic and its associated restrictions. However, little is known about the effect of lifting COVID-19 restrictions on health service utilisation. The objective of this study was to estimate the effect of lifting COVID-19 restrictions on primary care service utilisation in Nepal. METHODS: Data on utilisation of 10 primary care services were extracted from the Health Management Information System across all health facilities in Nepal. We used a difference-in-differences design and linear fixed effects regressions to estimate the effect of lifting COVID-19 restrictions. The treatment group included palikas that had lifted restrictions in place from 17 August 2020 to 16 September 2020 (Bhadra 2077) and the control group included palikas that had maintained restrictions during that period. The pre-period included the 4 months of national lockdown from 24 March 2020 to 22 July 2020 (Chaitra 2076 to Ashar 2077). Models included month and palika fixed effects and controlled for COVID-19 incidence. RESULTS: We found that lifting COVID-19 restrictions was associated with an average increase per palika of 57.5 contraceptive users (95% CI 14.6 to 100.5), 15.6 antenatal care visits (95% CI 5.3 to 25.9) and 1.6 child pneumonia visits (95% CI 0.2 to 2.9). This corresponded to a 9.4% increase in contraceptive users, 34.2% increase in antenatal care visits and 15.6% increase in child pneumonia visits. Utilisation of most other primary care services also increased after lifting restrictions, but coefficients were not statistically significant. CONCLUSIONS: Despite the ongoing pandemic, lifting restrictions can lead to an increase in some primary care services. Our results point to a causal link between restrictions and health service utilisation and call for policy makers in low- and middle-income countries to carefully consider the trade-offs of strict lockdowns during future COVID-19 waves or future pandemics.

The road to recovery: an interrupted time series analysis of policy intervention to restore essential health services in Mexico during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Background: Recovery of health services disrupted by the COVID-19 pandemic represents a significant challenge in low- and middle-income countries. In April 2021, the Mexican Institute of Social Security (IMSS), which provides health care to 68.5 million people, launched the National Strategy for Health Services Recovery (Recovery policy). The study objective was to evaluate whether the Recovery policy addressed COVID-related declines in maternal, child health, and non-communicable diseases (NCDs) services. Methods: We analysed the data of 35 IMSS delegations from January 2019 to November 2021 on contraceptive visits, antenatal care consultations, deliveries, caesarean sections, sick children's consultations, child vaccination, breast and cervical cancer screening, diabetes and hypertension consultations, and control. We focused on the period before (April 2020 - March 2021) and during (April 2021 - November 2021) the Recovery policy and used an interrupted time series design and Poisson Generalized Estimating Equation models to estimate the association of this policy with service use and outcomes and change in their trends. Results: Despite the third wave of the pandemic in 2021, service utilization increased in the Recovery period, reaching (at minimum) 49% of pre-pandemic levels for sick children's consultations and (at maximum) 106% of pre-pandemic levels for breast cancer screenings. Evidence for the Recovery policy role was mixed: the policy was associated with increased facility deliveries (IRR = 1.15, 95%CI = 1.11-1.19) with a growing trend over time (IRR = 1.04, 95%CI = 1.03-1.05); antenatal care and child health services saw strong level effects but decrease over time. Additionally, the Recovery policy was associated with diabetes and hypertension control. Services recovery varied across delegations. Conclusions: Health service utilization and NCDs control demonstrated important gains in 2021, but evidence suggests the policy had inconsistent effects across services and decreasing impact over time. Further efforts to strengthen essential health services and ensure consistent recovery across delegations are warranted.

Improving health and social systems for all children in LMICs: structural innovations to deliver high-quality services.

Despite health gains over the past 30 years, children and adolescents are not reaching their health potential in many low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs). In addition to health systems, social systems, such as schools, communities, families, and digital platforms, can be used to promote health. We did a targeted literature review of how well health and social systems are meeting the needs of children in LMICs using the framework of The Lancet Global Health Commission on high-quality health systems and we reviewed evidence for structural reforms in health and social sectors. We found that quality of services for children is substandard across both health and social systems. Health systems have deficits in care competence (eg, diagnosis and management), system competence (eg, timeliness, continuity, and referral), user experience (eg, respect and usability), service provision for common and serious conditions (eg, cancer, trauma, and mental health), and service offerings for adolescents. Education and social services for child health are limited by low funding and poor coordination with other sectors. Structural reforms are more likely to improve service quality substantially and at scale than are micro-level efforts. Promising approaches include governing for quality (eg, leadership, expert management, and learning systems), redesigning service delivery to maximise outcomes, and empowering families to better care for children and to demand quality care from health and social systems. Additional research is needed on health needs across the life course, health system performance for children and families, and large-scale evaluation of promising health and social programmes.

COVID-19 and resilience of healthcare systems in ten countries.

Declines in health service use during the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic could have important effects on population health. In this study, we used an interrupted time series design to assess the immediate effect of the pandemic on 31 health services in two low-income (Ethiopia and Haiti), six middle-income (Ghana, Lao People's Democratic Republic, Mexico, Nepal, South Africa and Thailand) and high-income (Chile and South Korea) countries. Despite efforts to maintain health services, disruptions of varying magnitude and duration were found in every country, with no clear patterns by country income group or pandemic intensity. Disruptions in health services often preceded COVID-19 waves. Cancer screenings, TB screening and detection and HIV testing were most affected (26-96% declines). Total outpatient visits declined by 9-40% at national levels and remained lower than predicted by the end of 2020. Maternal health services were disrupted in approximately half of the countries, with declines ranging from 5% to 33%. Child vaccinations were disrupted for shorter periods, but we estimate that catch-up campaigns might not have reached all children missed. By contrast, provision of antiretrovirals for HIV was not affected. By the end of 2020, substantial disruptions remained in half of the countries. Preliminary data for 2021 indicate that disruptions likely persisted. Although a portion of the declines observed might result from decreased needs during lockdowns (from fewer infectious illnesses or injuries), a larger share likely reflects a shortfall of health system resilience. Countries must plan to compensate for missed healthcare during the current pandemic and invest in strategies for better health system resilience for future emergencies.

Effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on health service utilization across regions of Ethiopia: An interrupted time series analysis of health information system data from 2019-2020.

The spread of COVID-19 and associated deaths have remained low in Ethiopia. However, the pandemic could pose a public health crisis indirectly through disruptions in essential health services. The aim of this study was to examine disruptions in health service utilization during the first nine months of the COVID-19 pandemic across 10 regions in Ethiopia. We analyzed utilization of 21 different health services across all of Ethiopia (except the Tigray region) for the period of January 2019 to December 2020. Data were extracted from the Ethiopian district health information system (DHIS2). Monthly visits in 2020 were graphed relative to the same months in 2019. Interrupted time series analysis was used to estimate the effect of the pandemic on service utilization in each region. We found that disruptions in health services were generally higher in urban regions which were most affected by COVID. Outpatient visits declined by 52%, 54%, and 58%, specifically in Dire Dawa, Addis Ababa and Harari, the three urban regions. Similarly, there was a 47% reduction in inpatient admissions in Addis Ababa. In agrarian regions, the pandemic caused an 11% to 17% reduction in outpatient visits and a 10% to 27% decline in inpatient admissions. Visits for children with diarrhea, pneumonia and malnutrition also declined substantially while maternal health services were less affected. Our study indicates that disruptions in health services were more pronounced in areas that were relatively harder hit by the pandemic. Our results show that the Ethiopian health system has a limited capacity to absorb shocks. During future waves of COVID or future pandemics, the Ethiopian health system must be better prepared to maintain essential services and mitigate the indirect impact of the pandemic on public health, particularly in urban areas.

How does the effectiveness of strategies to improve healthcare provider practices in low-income and middle-income countries change after implementation? Secondary analysis of a systematic review.

BACKGROUND: A recent systematic review evaluated the effectiveness of strategies to improve healthcare provider (HCP) performance in low-income and middle-income countries. The review identified strategies with varying effects, including in-service training, supervision and group problem-solving. However, whether their effectiveness changed over time remained unclear. In particular, understanding whether effects decay over time is crucial to improve sustainability. METHODS: We conducted a secondary analysis of data from the aforementioned review to explore associations between time and effectiveness. We calculated effect sizes (defined as percentage-point (%-point) changes) for HCP practice outcomes (eg, percentage of patients correctly treated) at each follow-up time point after the strategy was implemented. We estimated the association between time and effectiveness using random-intercept linear regression models with time-specific effect sizes clustered within studies and adjusted for baseline performance. RESULTS: The primary analysis included 37 studies, and a sensitivity analysis included 77 additional studies. For training, every additional month of follow-up was associated with a 0.19 %-point decrease in effectiveness (95% CI: -0.36 to -0.03). For training combined with supervision, every additional month was associated with a 0.40 %-point decrease in effectiveness (95% CI: -0.68 to -0.12). Time trend results for supervision were inconclusive. For group problem-solving alone, time was positively associated with effectiveness, with a 0.50 %-point increase in effect per month (95% CI: 0.37 to 0.64). Group problem-solving combined with training was associated with large improvements, and its effect was not associated with time. CONCLUSIONS: Time trends in the effectiveness of different strategies to improve HCP practices vary among strategies. Programmes relying solely on in-service training might need periodical refresher training or, better still, consider combining training with group problem-solving. Although more high-quality research is needed, these results, which are important for decision-makers as they choose which strategies to use, underscore the utility of studies with multiple post-implementation measurements so sustainability of the impact on HCP practices can be assessed.