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CONTEXT: It has been observed that sex hormones may play a role in inflammatory processes and mortality of critically ill patients. AIMS: The aim was evaluated the relationship between serum estradiol level at Intensive Care Unit (ICU) admission and mortality of critically ill patients. SETTINGS AND DESIGN: This study was a prospective cohort conducted in one mixed ICU. SUBJECTS AND METHODS: In heterogeneous group of critically ill patients admitted to the ICU, we measured serum estradiol at admission time. STATISTICAL ANALYSIS USED: The discrimination to predict mortality of serum estradiol level was assessed by the receiver-operating curve (ROC) curve and its association with mortality by logistic regression analysis. RESULTS: We included 131 patients, 57.3% of which were male. The serum estradiol level measured at ICU admission was significantly higher in nonsurvivors than in survivors: 116 versus 67.2 pg/mL, respectively (P < 0.0001). The area under the ROC of serum estradiol level to predict mortality was 0.74 (P < 0.0001). Serum estradiol level ≥97.9 pg/mL had sensitivity of 60%, specificity of 90%, positive predictive value of 64%, negative predictive value of 88%, positive likelihood ratio of 6, and negative likelihood ratio of 0.44, for predicting mortality. In multivariate analysis, it had relative risk of 6.47 (P = 0.002) for ICU mortality. CONCLUSIONS: The serum estradiol level is elevated in critically ill patients, regardless of gender, especially in those who die. It has good discriminative capacity to predict mortality, and it is an independent risk factor for death in this group of patients.
RESUMO
BACKGROUND: Mechanical ventilation (MV) is used in 60-70 % of patients admitted to the intensive care unit (ICU). An f/Vt threshold value of 105 is a predictor of successful weaning from mechanical ventilation (WMV) in patients with asthma, cardiac surgery, pneumonia, sepsis, neurocritical, etc. However, there are no reports about the usefulness of the f/Vt value to predict successful WMV in patients with active smoking (AS). The purpose of this paper is to identify a threshold value for f/Vt to predict successful WMV in patients with AS. METHODS: Prospectively, 85 patients with AS and MV >24 hours admitted to de ICU were included. Demographic and clinical data were registered. The f/Vt value was measured with a Wright's spirometer, and the sensibility, specificity, positive predictive value (PPV) and negative predictive value (NPV) were calculated to predict a successful WMV. A p value <0.05 was considered statistically significant. RESULTS: The average of f/Vt was 68.69. Successful WMV was of 75.3 %. An f/Vt threshold value of 79.5 had sensibility of 76 %, specificity of 61 %, PPV of 85 %, and NPV of 46 % to predict successful WMV in this group of patients. CONCLUSIONS: An f/Vt threshold value of 79.5 is useful to predict successful WMV in patients with AS.
Introducción: la ventilación mecánica (VM) se utiliza en el 60-70 % de los ingresos a la unidad de cuidados intensivos (UCI). Un valor umbral del índice f/Vt de 105 es un predictor de éxito en el retiro de la ventilación mecánica (RVM) en pacientes con asma, cirugía cardiaca, neumonía, sepsis, neurocríticos, etc. Sin embargo, no existen reportes de la utilidad del índice f/Vt para predecir RVM exitoso en pacientes con tabaquismo activo (TA). El objetivo de este trabajo es identificar un valor umbral del índice f/Vt para predecir RVM exitoso en pacientes con TA. Métodos: se incluyeron prospectivamente 85 pacientes con TA y VM >24 horas, ingresados a la UCI. Se registraron variables demográficas y clínicas. Se midió el índice f/Vt con un espirómetro de Wright y se calculó su sensibilidad, especificidad, valor predictivo positivo (VPP) y valor predictivo negativo (VPN) para predecir RVM exitoso. Una p <0.05 se consideró estadísticamente significativa. Resultados: el promedio del índice f/Vt fue de 68.69. El RVM exitoso fue del 75.3 %. Un valor umbral del índice f/Vt de 79.5 tuvo sensibilidad de 76 %, especificidad de 61 %, VPP de 85 % y VPN de 46 % para predecir RVM exitoso en este grupo de enfermos. Conclusiones: el valor umbral del índice f/Vt de 79.5 es útil para predecir éxito en el RVM en pacientes con TA.
