Risk of Pancreatic Cancer in Patients With Pancreatic Cysts and Family History of Pancreatic Cancer.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: A diagnosis of pancreatic cancer in a first-degree relative increases an individuals' risk of this cancer. However, it is not clear whether this cancer risk increases in individuals with pancreatic cystic lesions who have a first-degree relative with pancreatic cancer. The Fukuoka criteria are used to estimate risk of pancreatic cancer for patients with pancreatic cystic lesions: individuals with cysts with high risk or worrisome features (Fukuoka positive) have a higher risk of pancreatic cancer than individuals without these features (Fukuoka negative). We aimed to compare the risk of pancreatic cancer and surgery based on presence or absence of pancreatic cystic lesions and a first-degree relative with pancreatic cancer. METHODS: We performed a retrospective study of patients seen at the Mayo Clinic in Rochester, Minnesota, from January 1, 2000, through December 31, 2012. We identified individuals with: pancreatic cystic lesions and first-degree relative with pancreatic cancer (group 1, n = 269), individuals with pancreatic cystic lesions but no first-degree relative with pancreatic cancer (group 2, n = 1195), and individuals without pancreatic cystic lesions but with a first-degree relative with pancreatic cancer (group 3, n = 720). We compared, among groups, as well among patients with cysts classified according to Fukuoka criteria, proportions of individuals who developed pancreatic cancer or underwent pancreatic surgery within a 5-year period. RESULTS: A significantly higher proportion of individuals in group 1 developed pancreatic cancer during the 5-year period than in group 3 (6.64% vs 1.69%; P = .03); there was no significant difference between the percentage of individuals in group 1 vs group 2 who developed pancreatic cancer (6.64% vs 4.05%; P = .41). There was no significant difference in pancreatic cancer development among individuals with Fukuoka-positive cysts with vs without a family history of pancreatic cancer (P = .39). There was no significant difference in the proportion of patients in group 1 vs group 2 who underwent pancreatic surgery for their pancreatic cyst over the 5-year period (14.37% vs 11.80%; P = .59). Among patients with Fukuoka-negative cysts, a significantly higher proportion underwent surgery in group 1 than in group 2 (10.90% vs 5.90%; P = .03). However, among patients with Fukuoka-positive cysts, there was no difference in proportions of patients who underwent surgery between groups 1 and 2 (P = .66). CONCLUSIONS: In a retrospective study of patients with pancreatic cysts and/or cancer, we found that a family history of pancreatic cancer does not affect 5-year risk of pancreatic cancer in patients with pancreatic cystic lesions. Despite this, among patients with Fukuoka-negative cysts, a higher proportion of those with a family history of pancreatic cancer undergo surgery than patients without family history of pancreatic cancer.

Fukuoka criteria accurately predict risk for adverse outcomes during follow-up of pancreatic cysts presumed to be intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasms.

OBJECTIVE: Fukuoka consensus guidelines classify pancreatic cystic lesions (PCLs) presumed to be intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasms (IPMNs) into Fukuoka positive (FP) (subgroups of high-risk (HR) and worrisome features (WFs)) and Fukuoka negative (FN) (non-HR feature/WF cysts). We retrospectively estimated 5-year risk of pancreatic cancer (PC) in FN, WF and HR cysts of patients with PCL-IPMN. DESIGN: From Mayo Clinic databases, we randomly selected 2000 patients reported to have a PCL; we excluded inflammatory or suspected non-IPMN cysts and those without imaging follow-up. We re-reviewed cross-sectional imaging and abstracted clinical and follow-up data on PCL-IPMNs. The study contained 802 patients with FN cysts and 358 with FP cysts. RESULTS: Patients with PCL-IPMN had median (IQR) follow-up of 4.2 (1.8-7.1) years. Among FN cysts, 5-year PC risk was low (2-3%) regardless of cyst size (p=0.67). After excluding events in the first 6 months, 5-year PC risk remained low (0-2%) regardless of cyst size (p=0.61). Among FP cysts, HR cysts (n=66) had greater 5-year PC risk than WF cysts (n=292) (49.7% vs 4.1%; p<0.001). In HR cysts, 3-year PC risk was greatest for obstructive jaundice versus enhancing solid component or main pancreatic duct >10 mm (79.8% vs 37.3% vs 39.4%, respectively; p=0.01). CONCLUSIONS: Fukuoka guidelines accurately stratify PCL-IPMNs for PC risk, with FN cysts having lowest and HR cysts having greatest risk. After 6-month follow-up, WF and FN cysts had a low 5-year PC risk. Surveillance strategies should be tailored appropriately.