Linking climate warming and land conversion to species' range changes across Great Britain.

Although increased temperatures are known to reinforce the effects of habitat destruction at local to landscape scales, evidence of their additive or interactive effects is limited, particularly over larger spatial extents and longer timescales. To address these deficiencies, we created a dataset of land-use changes over 75 years, documenting the loss of over half (>3000 km2) the semi-natural grassland of Great Britain. Pairing this dataset with climate change data, we tested for relationships to distribution changes in birds, butterflies, macromoths, and plants (n = 1192 species total). We show that individual or additive effects of climate warming and land conversion unambiguously increased persistence probability for 40% of species, and decreased it for 12%, and these effects were reflected in both range contractions and expansions. Interactive effects were relatively rare, being detected in less than 1 in 5 species, and their overall effect on extinction risk was often weak. Such individualistic responses emphasise the importance of including species-level information in policies targeting biodiversity and climate adaptation.

Evaluating the long-term consequences of air pollution in early life: geographical correlations between coal consumption in 1951/1952 and current mortality in England and Wales.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate associations between early life air pollution and subsequent mortality. DESIGN: Geographical study. SETTING: Local government districts within England and Wales. EXPOSURE: Routinely collected geographical data on the use of coal and related solid fuels in 1951-1952 were used as an index of air pollution. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: We evaluated the relationship between these data and both all-cause and disease-specific mortality among men and women aged 35-74 years in local government districts between 1993 and 2012. RESULTS: Domestic (household) coal consumption had the most powerful associations with mortality. There were strong correlations between domestic coal use and all-cause mortality (relative risk per SD increase in fuel use 1.124, 95% CI 1.123 to 1.126), and respiratory (1.238, 95% CI 1.234 to 1.242), cardiovascular (1.138, 95% CI 1.136 to 1.140) and cancer mortality (1.073, 95% CI 1.071 to 1.075). These effects persisted after adjustment for socioeconomic indicators in 1951, current socioeconomic indicators and current pollution levels. CONCLUSION: Coal was the major cause of pollution in the UK until the Clean Air Act of 1956 led to a rapid decline in consumption. These data suggest that coal-based pollution, experienced over 60 years ago in early life, affects human health now by increasing mortality from a wide variety of diseases.

Area deprivation across the life course and physical capability in midlife: findings from the 1946 British Birth cohort.

Physical capability in later life is influenced by factors occurring across the life course, yet exposures to area conditions have only been examined cross-sectionally. Data from the National Survey of Health and Development, a longitudinal study of a 1946 British birth cohort, were used to estimate associations of area deprivation (defined as percentage of employed people working in partly skilled or unskilled occupations) at ages 4, 26, and 53 years (residential addresses linked to census data in 1950, 1972, and 1999) with 3 measures of physical capability at age 53 years: grip strength, standing balance, and chair-rise time. Cross-classified multilevel models with individuals nested within areas at the 3 ages showed that models assessing a single time point underestimate total area contributions to physical capability. For balance and chair-rise performance, associations with area deprivation in midlife were robust to adjustment for individual socioeconomic position and prior area deprivation (mean change for a 1-standard-deviation increase: balance, -7.4% (95% confidence interval (CI): -12.8, -2.8); chair rise, 2.1% (95% CI: -0.1, 4.3)). In addition, area deprivation in childhood was related to balance after adjustment for childhood socioeconomic position (-5.1%, 95% CI: -8.7, -1.6). Interventions aimed at reducing midlife disparities in physical capability should target the socioeconomic environment of individuals-for standing balance, as early as childhood.

Challenges in examining area effects across the life course on physical capability in mid-life: findings from the 1946 British Birth Cohort.

A major limitation of past work linking area socioeconomic conditions to health in mid-life has been the reliance on single point in time measurement of area. Using the MRC National Survey of Health and Development, this study for the first time linked place of residence at three major life periods of childhood (1950), young adulthood (1972), and mid-life (1999) to area-socioeconomic data from the nearest census years. Using objective measures of physical capability as the outcome, the purpose of this study was to highlight four methodological challenges of attrition bias, secular changes in socio-economic measures, historical data availability, and changing reporting units over time. In general, standing balance and chair rise time showed clear cross-sectional associations with residing in areas with high deprivation. However, it was the process of overcoming the methodological challenges, which led to the conclusion that in this example percent low social class occupations was the most appropriate measure to use when extending cross-sectional analysis of standing balance and chair rise to life course investigation.