Bellwethers of change: population modelling of North Pacific humpback whales from 2002 through 2021 reveals shift from recovery to climate response.

For the 40 years after the end of commercial whaling in 1976, humpback whale populations in the North Pacific Ocean exhibited a prolonged period of recovery. Using mark-recapture methods on the largest individual photo-identification dataset ever assembled for a cetacean, we estimated annual ocean-basin-wide abundance for the species from 2002 through 2021. Trends in annual estimates describe strong post-whaling era population recovery from 16 875 (± 5955) in 2002 to a peak abundance estimate of 33 488 (± 4455) in 2012. An apparent 20% decline from 2012 to 2021, 33 488 (± 4455) to 26 662 (± 4192), suggests the population abruptly reached carrying capacity due to loss of prey resources. This was particularly evident for humpback whales wintering in Hawai'i, where, by 2021, estimated abundance had declined by 34% from a peak in 2013, down to abundance levels previously seen in 2006, and contrasted to an absence of decline in Mainland Mexico breeding humpbacks. The strongest marine heatwave recorded globally to date during the 2014-2016 period appeared to have altered the course of species recovery, with enduring effects. Extending this time series will allow humpback whales to serve as an indicator species for the ecosystem in the face of a changing climate.

A collaborative and near-comprehensive North Pacific humpback whale photo-ID dataset.

We present an ocean-basin-scale dataset that includes tail fluke photographic identification (photo-ID) and encounter data for most living individual humpback whales (Megaptera novaeangliae) in the North Pacific Ocean. The dataset was built through a broad collaboration combining 39 separate curated photo-ID catalogs, supplemented with community science data. Data from throughout the North Pacific were aggregated into 13 regions, including six breeding regions, six feeding regions, and one migratory corridor. All images were compared with minimal pre-processing using a recently developed image recognition algorithm based on machine learning through artificial intelligence; this system is capable of rapidly detecting matches between individuals with an estimated 97-99% accuracy. For the 2001-2021 study period, a total of 27,956 unique individuals were documented in 157,350 encounters. Each individual was encountered, on average, in 5.6 sampling periods (i.e., breeding and feeding seasons), with an annual average of 87% of whales encountered in more than one season. The combined dataset and image recognition tool represents a living and accessible resource for collaborative, basin-wide studies of a keystone marine mammal in a time of rapid ecological change.

Humpback whales (Megaptera novaeangliae) attend both Mexico and Hawaii breeding grounds in the same winter: mixing in the northeast Pacific.

Humpback whales that assemble on winter breeding grounds in Mexico and Hawaii have been presumed to be, at least, seasonally isolated. Recently, these assemblies were declared Distinct Population Segments under the US Endangered Species Act. We report two humpback whales attending both breeding grounds in the same season-one moving from Hawaii to Mexico and the other from Mexico to Hawaii. The first was photo-identified in Maui, Hawaii on 23 February 2006 and again, after 53 days and 4545 km, on 17 April 2006 in the Revillagigedo Archipelago, Mexico. The second was photo-identified off Guerrero, Mexico on 16 February 2018 and again, 49 days and 5944 km later, on 6 April 2018 off Maui. The 2006 whale was identified in summer off Kodiak Island, Alaska; the 2018 whale off British Columbia. These Mexico-Hawaii identifications provide definitive evidence that whales in these two winter assemblies may mix during one winter season. This, combined with other lines of evidence on Mexico-Hawaii mixing, including interchange of individuals year to year, long-term similarity of everchanging songs, one earlier same-season travel record, and detection of humpback whales mid-ocean between these locations in winter, suggests reassessment of the 'distinctiveness' of these populations may be warranted.

Lobomycosis-like disease in common bottlenose dolphins Tursiops truncatus from Belize and Mexico: bridging the gap between the Americas.

Lobomycosis and lobomycosis-like diseases (LLD) (also: paracoccidioidomycosis) are chronic cutaneous infections that affect Delphinidae in tropical and subtropical regions worldwide. In the Americas, these diseases have been relatively well-described, but gaps still exist in our understanding of their distribution across the continent. Here we report on LLD affecting inshore bottlenose dolphins Tursiops truncatus from the Caribbean waters of Belize and from the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean off the southwestern coast of Mexico. Photo-identification and catalog data gathered between 1992 and 2017 for 371 and 41 individuals, respectively from Belize and Mexico, were examined for the presence of LLD. In Belize, 5 free-ranging and 1 stranded dolphin were found positive in at least 3 communities with the highest prevalence in the south. In Guerrero, Mexico, 4 inshore bottlenose dolphins sighted in 2014-2017 were affected by LLD. These data highlight the need for histological and molecular studies to confirm the etiological agent. Additionally, we document a single case of LLD in an adult Atlantic spotted dolphin Stenella frontalis in southern Belize, the first report in this species. The role of environmental and anthropogenic factors in the occurrence, severity, and epidemiology of LLD in South and Central America requires further investigation.