Projecting the Future Registered Nurse Workforce After the COVID-19 Pandemic.

Importance: Health care delivery systems rely on a well-prepared and adequately sized registered nurse (RN) workforce. The US RN workforce decreased by more than 100 000 in 2021 during the COVID-19 pandemic-a far greater single-year drop than observed over the past 4 decades. The implication for the longer-term growth of the RN workforce is unknown. Objective: To describe recent trends in RN employment through 2023 and forecast the growth of the RN workforce through 2035. Design, Setting, and Participants: Descriptive analysis of recent trends since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic in RN employment using data from the US Bureau of the Census Current Population Survey and including employed RNs aged 23 to 69 years from 1982 through 2023, and retrospective cohort analysis of employment trends by birth year and age to project the age distribution and employment of RNs through 2035. Main Outcome and Measures: Annual full-time equivalent (FTE) employment of RNs by age, demographics, and sector of employment; forecast of RN workforce by age through 2035. Results: The final sample included 455 085 RN respondents aged 23 to 69 years. After a sharp decline in 2021, RN employment recovered, and the total number of FTE RNs in 2022 and 2023 was 6% higher than in 2019 (3.35 million vs 3.16 million, respectively). Using data on employment, education, and population through 2022, the size of the RN workforce was projected to increase by roughly 1.2 million FTEs to 4.56 million by 2035, close to prepandemic forecasts. Growth will be driven primarily by RNs aged 35 to 49 years, who are projected to compose nearly half (47%) of the RN workforce in 2035, up from 38% in 2022. Conclusions and Relevance: In this study, the rebound in the total size of the US RN workforce during 2022 and 2023 indicates that the earlier drop in RN employment during the first 2 years of the COVID-19 pandemic was likely transitory. Updated forecasts of the future RN workforce are very close to those made before the pandemic.

Comparing ambulatory commercial spending in Rhode Island and Massachusetts, 2016-2019.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate trends and drivers of commercial ambulatory spending and price variation. DATA SOURCES AND STUDY SETTING: Commercial claims data from the Massachusetts and Rhode Island All-Payer Claims Databases from 2016 to 2019. STUDY DESIGN: Observational study of spending in major ambulatory care settings. We calculated per member per year spending, average price, and utilization rates to consider drivers of spending, and constructed site-specific price indices to evaluate price variation. DATA COLLECTION/EXTRACTION METHODS: We analyzed commercial claims data from All-Payer Claims Databases in the two states. PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Ambulatory spending levels in Massachusetts were 38.0% higher than those in Rhode Island in 2019. Overall utilization rates were similar, but Massachusetts had a 6.2 percentage point higher share of visits occurring in hospital outpatient departments (HOPD). Average prices were 31.5% higher in Massachusetts in 2016 and 36.4% higher in 2019. We observed extensive price variation in both states across both office and HOPD settings. CONCLUSIONS: States seeking to address increases in health care spending, including those with cost growth benchmarks and rate review policies, should consider additional interventions that mitigate market failures in the establishment of commercial health care prices.

Assessment of a Price Index for Hospital Outpatient Department Services Using Commercial Claims Data in Massachusetts.

This cross-sectional study assesses a market basket price index to evaluate hospital outpatient department price levels and growth.

Marriage, Children, and Sex-Based Differences in Physician Hours and Income.

Importance: A better understanding of the association between family structure and sex gaps in physician earnings and hours worked over the life cycle is needed to advance policies addressing persistent sex disparities. Objective: To investigate differences in earnings and hours worked for male and female physicians at various ages and family status. Design, Setting, and Participants: This retrospective, cross-sectional study used data on physicians aged 25 to 64 years responding to the American Community Survey between 2005 and 2019. Exposures: Earned income and work hours. Main Outcomes and Measures: Outcomes included annual earned income, usual hours worked per week, and earnings per hour worked. Gaps in earnings and hours by sex were calculated by family status and physician age and, in some analyses, adjusted for demographic characteristics and year of survey. Data analyses were conducted between 2019 and 2022. Results: The sample included 95 435 physicians (35.8% female, 64.2% male, 19.8% Asian, 4.8% Black, 5.9% Hispanic, 67.3% White, and 2.2% other race or ethnicity) with a mean (SD) age of 44.4 (10.4) years. Relative to male physicians, female physicians were more likely to be single (18.8% vs 11.2%) and less likely to have children (53.3% vs 58.2%). Male-female earnings gaps grew with age and, when accumulated from age 25 to 64 years, were approximately $1.6 million for single physicians, $2.5 million for married physicians without children, and $3.1 million for physicians with children. Gaps in earnings per hour did not vary by family structure, with male physicians earning between 21.4% and 23.9% more per hour than female physicians. The male-female gap in hours worked was 0.6% for single physicians, 7.0% for married physicians without children, and 17.5% for physicians with children. Conclusions and Relevance: In this cross-sectional study of US physicians, marriage and children were associated with a greater earnings penalty for female physicians, primarily due to fewer hours worked relative to men. Addressing the barriers that lead to women working fewer hours could contribute to a reduction in the male-female earnings gap while helping to expand the effective physician workforce.

An overview and policy implications of national nurse identifier systems: A call for unity and integration.

There is a clear and growing need to be able record and track the contributions of individual registered nurses (RNs) to patient care and patient care outcomes in the US and also understand the state of the nursing workforce. The National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine report, The Future of Nursing 2020-2030: Charting a Path to Achieve Health Equity (2021), identified the need to track nurses' collective and individual contributions to patient care outcomes. This capability depends upon the adoption of a unique nurse identifier and its implementation within electronic health records. Additionally, there is a need to understand the nature and characteristics of the overall nursing workforce including supply and demand, turnover, attrition, credentialing, and geographic areas of practice. This need for data to support workforce studies and planning is dependent upon comprehensive databases describing the nursing workforce, with unique nurse identification to support linkage across data sources. There are two existing national nurse identifiers- the National Provider Identifier and the National Council of State Boards of Nursing Identifier. This article provides an overview of these two national nurse identifiers; reviews three databases that are not nurse specific to understand lessons learned in the development of those databases; and discusses the ethical, legal, social, diversity, equity, and inclusion implications of a unique nurse identifier.

Characteristics of rural registered nurses and the implications for workforce policy.

PURPOSE: Rural registered nurses (RNs) play an integral role in providing care for an underserved population with worse health outcomes than urban counterparts. However, little information is available on the profile of this workforce, which is necessary to understand the capacity of these nurses to provide quality and demanded care presently and in the future. METHODS: We utilize data from the American Community Survey to provide a contemporary analysis on the supply of rural RNs in the United States. FINDINGS: While the number of physicians serving rural populations has decreased in recent years, and rural nurse practitioners (NPs) remain in short supply, rural RNs have steadily grown in numbers at a rate comparable to urban RNs. Rural RNs are markedly less diverse than the populations they serve and only half of rural RNs had a bachelor's degree or higher compared to over 70% for urban RNs. In their supply, young rural nurses appear on pace with urban nurses to adequately replace older nurses and continue to grow the workforce, based on data through 2019. CONCLUSIONS: The rural RN workforce is projected to steadily grow amidst declining rural physicians and limited rural NPs. The burgeoning investments in the rural health workforce present opportunities to help diversify, increase educational access, and further rural readiness for rural RNs moving forward.

Frequency Of Indirect Billing To Medicare For Nurse Practitioner And Physician Assistant Office Visits.

Nurse practitioners (NPs) and physician assistants (PAs) represent a growing share of the health care workforce, but much of the care they provide cannot be observed in claims data because of indirect (or "incident to") billing, a practice in which visits provided by an NP or PA are billed by a supervising physician. If NPs and PAs bill directly for a visit, Medicare and many private payers pay 85 percent of what is paid to a physician for the same service. Some policy makers have proposed eliminating indirect billing, but the possible impact of such a change is unknown. Using a novel approach that relies on prescriptions to identify indirectly billed visits, we estimated that the number of all NP or PA visits in fee-for-service Medicare data billed indirectly was 10.9 million in 2010 and 30.6 million in 2018. Indirect billing was more common in states with laws restricting NPs' scope of practice. Eliminating indirect billing would have saved Medicare roughly $194 million in 2018, with the greatest decrease in revenue seen among smaller primary care practices, which are more likely to use this form of billing.

Nurse Employment During The First Fifteen Months Of The COVID-19 Pandemic.

Analysis of Current Population Survey data suggests a tightening labor market for registered nurses, licensed practical nurses, and nursing assistants, marked by falling employment and rising wages through June 2021. Unemployment rates remain higher in nonhospital settings and among registered nurses and nursing assistants who are members of racial and ethnic minority groups.

Optimal Staffing Models To Care For Frail Older Adults In Primary Care And Geriatrics Practices In The US.

Different staffing configurations in primary and geriatric care practices could have implications for how best to deliver services that are essential for a growing population of older adults. Using data from a 2018 survey of physicians (MDs) and nurse practitioners (NPs) working in primary and geriatric care, we assessed whether different configurations were associated with better or worse performance on a number of standard process measures indicative of comprehensive, high-quality primary care. Practices with a large concentration of MDs had the highest estimated labor costs. Practices high in NPs and physician assistants (PAs) were most common in states that grant full scope of practice to NPs. The high-NP/PA configuration was associated with a 17-percentage-point greater probability of facilitating patient visits and a 26-percentage-point greater probability of providing the full bundle of primary care services compared with the high-MD model. Team-based configurations had a 27.7-percentage-point greater probability of providing the full bundle of primary care services. The complex needs of older adults may be best served by team-based practices with a broad provider mix that can provide a range of services in the office and the community.

Implications Of The Rapid Growth Of The Nurse Practitioner Workforce In The US.

Concerns about physician shortages have led policy makers in the US public and private sectors to advocate for the greater use of nurse practitioners (NPs). We examined recent changes in demographic, employment, and earnings characteristics of NPs and the implications of those changes. In the period 2010-17 the number of NPs in the US more than doubled from approximately 91,000 to 190,000. This growth occurred in every US region and was driven by the rapid expansion of education programs that attracted nurses in the Millennial generation. Employment was concentrated in hospitals, physician offices, and outpatient care centers, and inflation-adjusted earnings grew by 5.5 percent over this period. The pronounced growth in the number of NPs has reduced the size of the registered nurse (RN) workforce by up to 80,000 nationwide. In the future, hospitals must innovate and test creative ideas to replace RNs who have left their positions to become NPs, and educators must be alert for signs of falling earnings that may signal the excess production of NPs.

Care Management For Older Adults: The Roles Of Nurses, Social Workers, And Physicians.

Care management programs have become more widely adopted as health systems try to improve the coordination and integration of services across the continuum of care, especially for frail older adults. Several models of care suggest the inclusion of registered nurses (RNs) and social workers to assist in these activities. In a 2018 national survey of 410 clinicians in 363 primary care and geriatrics practices caring for frail older adults, we found that nearly 40 percent of practices had no social workers or RNs. However, when both types of providers did work in a practice, social workers were more likely than RNs to be reported to participate in social needs assessment and RNs more likely than social workers to participate in care coordination. Physicians' involvement in social needs assessment and care coordination declined significantly when social workers, RNs, or both were employed in the practice.

Association Between the Growth of Accountable Care Organizations and Physician Work Hours and Self-employment.

Importance: The share of the population covered by accountable care organizations (ACOs) is growing, but the association between this increase and physician employment is unknown. Objective: To investigate the association between the growth of ACOs and changes in physician work hours, probability of being self-employed, and probability of working in a hospital. Design, Setting, and Participants: A fixed-effects design was used in this cross-sectional study to compare changes in physician employment in hospital referral regions with high vs low ACO growth. A nationally representative 1% sample of all working US physicians obtained annually from 2011 through 2015 from the American Community Survey (N = 49 582) was included. Data analysis was conducted from March 28, 2017, to April 10, 2018. Main Outcomes and Measures: Physician hours worked per week, probability of being self-employed, and probability of working in a hospital. Results: Of the 49 582 physicians included in the study, 63.5% were men; the mean (SD) age of sampled physicians was 46.01 (11.59) years. In 2011, sampled physicians worked a mean (SD) of 52.2 (16.1) hours per week, 24.43% were self-employed, and 42.03% worked in a hospital. A 10-percentage point increase in ACO enrollment in a hospital referral region was associated with a statistically significant reduction of 0.82 (95% CI, -1.52 to -0.13; P = .02) work hours in men and a decrease of 2% (95% CI, -3.8% to -0.1%; P = .04) in the probability of all physicians being self-employed. The association with self-employment was strongest (-5.0%; 95% CI, -8.7% to -1.4%; P = .006) in physicians aged 50 to 69 years, who were also more likely (4.0%; 95% CI, 1.0% to 6.9%; P = .009) to work in a hospital. Conclusions and Relevance: The growth of ACOs within hospital referral regions appears to be associated with a reduction in hours of work and self-employment among physicians. These results suggest that ACOs may affect physician employment patterns.

Millennials Almost Twice As Likely To Be Registered Nurses As Baby Boomers Were.

Baby-boomer registered nurses (RNs), the largest segment of the RN workforce from 1981 to 2012, are now retiring. This would have led to nurse shortages but for the surprising embrace of the profession by millennials-who are entering the nurse workforce at nearly double the rate of the boomers. Still, the boomers' retirement will reduce growth in the size of the RN workforce to 1.3 percent per year for the period 2015-30.

Evaluation of Policy Options for Increasing the Availability of Primary Care Services in Rural Washington State.

The Washington State legislature has recently considered several policy options to address a perceived shortage of primary care physicians in rural Washington. These policy options include opening the new Elson S. Floyd College of Medicine at Washington State University in 2017; increasing the number of primary care residency positions in the state; expanding educational loan-repayment incentives to encourage primary care physicians to practice in rural Washington; increasing Medicaid payment rates for primary care physicians in rural Washington; and encouraging the adoption of alternative models of primary care, such as medical homes and nurse-managed health centers, that reallocate work from physicians to nurse practitioners (NPs) and physician assistants (PAs). RAND Corporation researchers projected the effects that these and other policy options could have on the state's rural primary care workforce through 2025. They project a 7-percent decrease in the number of rural primary care physicians and a 5-percent decrease in the number of urban ones. None of the policy options modeled in this study, on its own, will offset this expected decrease by relying on physicians alone. However, combinations of these strategies or partial reallocation of rural primary care services to NPs and PAs via such new practice models as medical homes and nurse-managed health centers are plausible options for preserving the overall availability of primary care services in rural Washington through 2025.

How fast will the registered nurse workforce grow through 2030? Projections in nine regions of the country.

BACKGROUND: After an unprecedented increase in nursing school enrollment and graduates in the past 10 years, projected shortages of nurses have been erased at a national level. However, nursing markets are local, and an uneven distribution of health care providers of all types is a longstanding feature of health care in the United States. PURPOSE: The purpose of this study was to understand how the outlook for future registered nurse (RN) supply varies regionally across the United States. METHODS: We apply our nursing supply model to the nine U.S. Census Divisions to produce separate supply forecasts for each region. DISCUSSION: We find dramatic differences in expected future growth of the nursing workforce across U.S. regions. These range from zero expected growth in the number of RNs per capita in New England and in the Pacific regions between 2015 and 2030 to 40% growth in the East South Central region (Mississippi, Alabama, Tennessee, Kentucky) and in the West South Central region (Texas, Oklahoma, Arkansas, Louisiana). CONCLUSION: Assuming growth in the demand for RNs per population, some regions of the United States are expected to face shortfalls in their nursing workforce if recent trends do not change.

Recent Changes in the Number of Nurses Graduating from Undergraduate and Graduate Programs.

Since the 1970s, a number of initiatives have attempted to increase the proportion of nursing graduates with a baccalaureate degree, but with little national effect. Now market forces, health reforms, and an Institute of Medicine report (2011) have combined to transform the educational composition of the nursing workforce. Today, there are considerably more graduates of baccalaureate nursing programs than associate degree programs. The educational transformation of the nursing workforce is not limited to baccalaureate education but includes the rapidly increasing numbers of registered nurses who have earned graduate degrees. These changes in nursing education are increasing the readiness of nursing professionals to capitalize on new opportunities, overcome challenges, and take on new roles and responsibilities as the nation's health care delivery and payments systems evolve in coming years.