Prediction of the virus incubation period for COVID-19 and future outbreaks

A crucial factor in mitigating respiratory viral outbreaks is early determination of the duration of the incubation period and, accordingly, the required quarantine time for potentially exposed individuals. Here, we explore different genomic features of RNA viruses that correlate with the incubation times and provide a predictive model that accurately estimates the upper limit incubation time for diverse viruses including SARS-CoV-2, and thus, could help control future outbreaks.

Genomic determinants of pathogenicity in SARS-CoV-2 and other human coronaviruses

SARS-CoV-2 poses an immediate, major threat to public health across the globe. Here we report an in-depth molecular analysis to reconstruct the evolutionary origins of the enhanced pathogenicity of SARS-CoV-2 and other coronaviruses that are severe human pathogens. Using integrated comparative genomics and machine learning techniques, we identify key genomic features that differentiate SARS-CoV-2 and the viruses behind the two previous deadly coronavirus outbreaks, SARS-CoV and MERS-CoV, from less pathogenic coronaviruses. These features include enhancement of the nuclear localization signals in the nucleocapsid protein and distinct inserts in the spike glycoprotein that appear to be associated with high case fatality rate of these coronaviruses as well as the host switch from animals to humans. The identified features could be crucial elements of coronavirus pathogenicity and possible targets for diagnostics, prognostication and interventions.