Development and internal validation of the survival time risk score in patients treated for oesophageal cancer with palliative intent in South Africa.

BACKGROUND: Most patients who present to South African state hospitals with advanced stage oesophageal squamous cell cancer (OSCC) disease receive palliative treatment. This study aimed to assess the factors that influence survival in patients with OSCC who received palliative management and to develop a prognostic score to aid clinicians in decisionmaking. METHODS: Analysis of a prospectively collected database assessed factors influencing survival of patients diagnosed with OSCC receiving palliative treatment. Factors assessed included patient demographics, clinical and laboratory data and tumour factors. A multivariable logistic regression model was used to assess for significant factors associated with survival time and a prognostic score was developed and internally validated based on these factors. RESULTS: There were 384 patients with a male-to-female ratio of 1.3:1. The median survival of the cohort was 3.7 months. Factors that influenced survival on multivariate analysis included area of residence (aOR 1.82, 95% CI 1.02-3.24), performance status (aOR 2.56, 95% CI 1.50-4.35), body mass index (aOR 1.87, 95% CI 1.14-3.06) and serum albumin (aOR 3.06, 95% CI 1.46-6.42). The final prognostic score contained three of the four independent variables based on the regression coefficient for each variable. After internal validation, the risk score maintained fair discrimination and good calibration. CONCLUSION: The prognostic scoring system based on patient performance status, body mass index and serum albumin, if validated on an independent cohort, would allow more objective decisions on whether to stage or not prior to embarking on palliative treatment, streamlining care and improving quality of life.

Predictors of in-hospital mortality among HIV-positive patients presenting with an acute illness to the emergency department.

OBJECTIVES: Despite better access to antiretroviral therapy (ART) over recent years, HIV remains a major global cause of mortality. The present study aimed to identify predictors of in-hospital mortality among HIV-positive patients presenting to an emergency department (ED). METHODS: In this cross-sectional study, HIV-positive patients presenting to the Charlotte Maxeke Johannesburg Academic Hospital adult ED between 07 July 2017 and 18 October 2018 were prospectively enrolled. Data were compared between participants who survived to hospital discharge and those who died. The data were further subjected to univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses to determine variables that were associated with in-hospital mortality. RESULTS: Of a total of 1224 participants, the in-hospital mortality was 13.6% (n = 166). On multivariate analysis, respiratory rate > 20 breaths/min [odds ratio (OR) = 1.90, P = 0.012], creatinine > 120 µmol/L (OR = 1.97, P = 0.006), oxygen saturation < 90% (OR = 2.09, P = 0.011), white cell count < 4.0 × 109 /L (OR = 2.09, P = 0.008), ART non-adherence or not yet on ART (OR = 2.39, P = 0.012), Glasgow Coma Scale < 15 (OR = 2.53, P = 0.000), albumin < 35 g/L (OR = 2.61, P = 0.002), lactate > 2 mmol/L (OR = 4.83, P = 0.000) and cryptococcal meningitis (OR = 6.78, P = 0.000) were significantly associated with in-hospital mortality. CONCLUSIONS: Routine clinical and laboratory parameters are useful predictors of in-hospital mortality in HIV-positive patients presenting to the ED with an acute illness. These parameters may be of value in guiding clinical decision-making, directing the appropriate use of resources and influencing patient disposition, and may also be useful in developing an outcome prediction tool.

The prevalence of pulmonary embolism in non-hospitalised de-isolated patients diagnosed with mild COVID-19 disease.

BACKGROUND: Pulmonary embolism (PE) is a known complication of COVID-19 disease. The mechanism of thromboembolic events appears to be stimulated by excessive thrombin production, inhibition of fibrinolysis and deposition of antiphospholipids and thrombi, as well as microvascular dysfunction in multiple vascular beds. The occurrence of PE has been well demonstrated in hospitalised patients with severe disease. Very few data are available on its incidence or prevalence in non-hospitalised patients diagnosed with a milder form of the disease. OBJECTIVES: To assess the prevalence of PE in non-hospitalised patients diagnosed with mild COVID-19 who presented with raised D-dimer levels and persistent or new-onset cardiopulmonary symptoms. METHODS: This was a retrospective study conducted in the Department of Nuclear Medicine at Universitas Academic Hospital, Bloemfontein, South Africa. We reviewed the studies of 65 non-hospitalised patients with COVID-19 referred to the department from July 2020 to January 2021 for a perfusion-only single-photon emission computed tomography/computed tomography (SPECT/CT) study or a ventilation/perfusion (VQ) SPECT/CT study. All 65 patients had raised D-dimer levels with persistent, worsening or new-onset cardiopulmonary symptoms after the diagnosis of COVID-19. RESULTS: Sixty-five patients were studied. The median (interquartile range) age was 46 (41 - 54) years and the majority (88.2%) were female. There were 22 patients (33.8%) with lung perfusion defects in keeping with PE. Two of these patients had a false-negative computed tomography pulmonary angiography (CTPA) study for PE performed the same day as their VQ SPECT/CT study. CONCLUSIONS: We confirm a high prevalence of PE in non-hospitalised patients diagnosed with mild COVID-19 who presented with raised D-dimer levels and persistent or new-onset cardiopulmonary symptoms. We recommend that irrespective of disease severity, hospitalised and non-hospitalised patients with COVID-19 presenting with persistent or new-onset cardiopulmonary symptoms and raised D-dimer levels should be investigated further for PE.

Prevalence of comorbidities in women with and without breast cancer in Soweto, South Africa: Results from the SABC study.

BACKGROUND: Comorbidities occurring concurrently in breast cancer patients can be burdensome, as they may negatively influence time and stage of presentation. OBJECTIVES: To describe the comorbid health conditions among South African (SA) black women with and without breast cancer and to determine factors associated with advanced-stage presentation of breast cancer. METHODS: A population-based case-control study on breast cancer was conducted in black women in Soweto, SA, the SABC (South Africa Breast Cancer) study. Lifestyle information and blood samples were collected from 399 women with histologically confirmed new cases of invasive primary breast cancer, recruited prior to any therapy, and 399 age- and neighbourhood-matched controls without breast cancer. We compared self-reported metabolic diseases, depression, anthropometric measurements, blood pressure, HIV status and point-of-care lipid and glucose levels between patients with breast cancer and the control group. RESULTS: In the whole population, the mean (standard deviation) age was 54.6 (12.9) years, the majority (81.2%) of the participants were overweight or obese, 85.3% had abdominal adiposity, 61.3% were hypertensive, 47.1% had impaired fasting plasma glucose, 8.4% had elevated total cholesterol, 74.8% had low high-density lipoprotein and 10.9% were assessed to be depressed. Ninety-one percent of the whole cohort had at least one metabolic disease. In the breast cancer group, 72.2% had one or more metabolic diseases only (HIV-negative and no evidence of depression), compared with 64.7% of the control group. From a multivariate logistic regression adjusted model, higher household socioeconomic status conferred a 19% reduction in the odds of having advanced-stage breast cancer at diagnosis, while hypertension, dyslipidaemia and HIV were not significantly associated with stage at breast cancer diagnosis in the adjusted model. CONCLUSIONS: A large proportion of women experience several comorbidities, highlighting the need to address the chronic non-communicable disease epidemic in SA and to co-ordinate multidisciplinary primary-, secondary- and tertiary-level care in the country's complex healthcare system for better outcome.

Bone Scintigraphy in Breast Cancer Patients in Ibadan, Nigeria.

BACKGROUND: The bone is the commonest site of metastases from breast carcinoma. Radionuclide isotope scanning is a sensitive scanning procedure for the demonstration of bone pathology. In May 2006, a gamma camera was introduced into clinical use for skeletal scintigraphy at the University College Hospital, Ibadan, Nigeria. OBJECTIVE: To review the first five years findings of skeletal scintigraphy in our breast cancer patients. METHODS: We retrospectively reviewed the clinical data and scintigraphic bone studies of patients with histology proven breast carcinoma managed in the Surgical Oncology Division, University College Hospital, Ibadan, Nigeria between May 2006 and April 2011. RESULTS: Within the period, a total of 597 breast cancer patients had skeletal scintigraphy (SS). Of the 594 (99.5%) SS reports available for review, scintigraphic evidence of bone metastases was found in 232 (39.1%) patients. Correlation of bone involvement and clinical stage showed that a large majority of the patients had stage IV (83.3%) and III (15.7%) disease. Most patients (71.6%) had multiple bone lesions. The bone lesions were osteoblastic in 88.9% of the patients; only 1.8% had purely osteolytic lesions with the remainder being a mix of both. CONCLUSION: There was scintigraphic evidence of bone metastasis in most of our patients with stage four breast cancer and in some with locally advanced disease. Multiple bone lesions were found in many of them and almost all the lesions were osteoblastic. Moreover, both the truncal and axial skeletal bones were involved in similar proportions.

Orbito-Ocular Tumours in Ibadan, South-West Nigeria.

AIM: The aim of this study was to review the cases of orbito-ocular tumors in a single tertiary health facility, and determine changes in pattern of presentation. METHODS: Medical records of all patients with histologically confirmed orbito-ocular tumors between January 1992 and December 2011 in a tertiary center were reviewed. Patients' demographics, types of orbito-ocular tumor and their presentation were recorded. RESULTS: Records of 205 patients were analyzed with a male to female ratio of 1.1:1 and median age of seven years. Retinoblastoma was the most common tumor followed by ocular surface squamous neoplasia. Squamous cell carcinoma was the most common eyelid tumor while rhabdomyosarcoma was the most common orbital tumor. No case of melanoma was seen during the period. More than two thirds of patients had lost vision at presentation due to delay in seeking appropriate medical attention Conclusion: There appears to be a reduction in the cases of orbito-ocular tumors in Ibadan, however, there is little variation in the pattern of presentation. Encouraging early presentation to the appropriate health facility may possibly reduce the morbidity in these patients.