Trends and challenges in diabetes for middle-income countries: Evidence from Mexico.

The epidemiological and economic burden of diabetes poses one of the main challenges for health systems worldwide. This is particularly relevant in middle-income countries because of the constant growing trends that have been observed in recent years. In order to identify trends and challenges on epidemiological and economic burden from diabetes in a middle-income country we developed a longitudinal analysis on costs and trends in the number of cases of diabetes in Mexico. The study population included total annual cases of diabetes at national level. Regarding the annual cumulative incidence for 2016 versus 2018, depending on the institution there is an increase of 9-13% (p < 0.001). Comparing the economic burden from incidence in 2016 versus 2018 (p < 0.05), there is a 26% increase. The total amount for diabetes in 2017 (US dollars) was $9,684,780,574. It includes $ 4,292,085,964 in direct costs and $ 5,392,694,610 in indirect costs. The total direct costs are: $ 510,986,406 for uninsured population; $ 1,416,132,058 for insured population; $ 2,235,969,330 for users' pockets. This is an example of what is happening in the management of diabetes care in middle-income countries and we suggest review and rethinking strategies of prevention, planning, organisation and resource allocation.

Challenges and dilemmas on universal coverage for non-communicable diseases in middle-income countries: evidence and lessons from Mexico.

BACKGROUND: Despite more than 20 years of reform projects in health systems, the universal coverage strategy has not reached the expected results in most middle-income countries (MICs). Using evidence from the Mexican case on diabetes and hypertension as tracers of non-communicable diseases, the effective coverage rate barely surpasses half of the expected goals necessary to meet the challenges that these two diseases represent at the population level. Prevalence and incidence rates do not diminish either; they even grow. In terms of the economic burden, this means that lack of financial protection and catastrophic expense rates have increased, contrary to what could have been expected. DISCUSSION: As any complex system, health systems present challenges and dilemmas that are difficult to solve. In terms of universal coverage, when contrasting normative coverage versus effective coverage, the epidemiological, cultural, organizational and economic challenges and barriers become evident. Such challenges have not allowed a greater effectiveness of the contributions of state of the art medicine in the resolution of health problems, particularly in relation to diabetes and hypertension. CONCLUSIONS: Despite of the existence of many universal coverage projects, strategies and programs implemented in MICs, challenges remain and, far from disappearing, unresolved problems are still present, even with increasing trends. The model of care based on a curative biomedical approach was enough to respond to the health needs of the last century, but is no longer adapted to the needs of the present century. The dilemmas of continuity vs. rupture require to review and discuss the background and structure of health systems and their underlying models of care. These two elements have not allowed the different coverage schemes to guarantee greater effectiveness in the application of state of the art medicine, nor a greater health care financial protection for patients and their families. We thus can either accept the fragmented health systems and bio-medical-curative models of care approach or, instead, we can move towards integrated health systems that would be based on a socio-medical-preventive approach to health care.

Challenges on the epidemiological and economic burden of diabetes and hypertension in Mexico.

OBJECTIVE To analyze the epidemiological and economic burden of the health services demand due to diabetes and hypertension in Mexico. METHODS Evaluation study based on a time series study that had as a universe of study the assured and uninsured population that demands health services from the three main institutions of the Health System in Mexico: The Health Department, the Mexican Institute of Social Security, and Institute of Services and Social Security for State Workers. The financing method was based on instrumentation and consensus techniques for medium case management. In order to estimate the epidemiological changes and financial requirements, a time series of observed cases for diabetes and hypertension 1994-2013 was integrated. Probabilistic models were developed based on the Box-Jenkins technique for the period of 2013-2018 with 95% confidence intervals and p < 0.05. RESULTS Comparing results from 2013 versus 2018, in the five regions, different incremental trends of 14%-17% in epidemiological changes and 58%-66% in the economic burden for both diseases were observed. CONCLUSIONS If the risk factors and the different models of care remained as they currently are in the three institutions analyzed, the financial consequences would be of greater impact for the Mexican Institute of Social Security, following in order of importance the Institute of Services and Social Security for State Workers and lastly the Health Department. The financial needs for both diseases will represent approximately 13%-15% of the total budget allocated to the uninsured population and 15%-17% for the population insured depending on the region.

Diabetes, a global public health challenge with a high epidemiological and economic burden on health systems in Latin America.

This manuscript presents the results of an analysis that highlights the challenges of diabetes as a global public health problem. The analysis was conducted in two phases: the first phase deals with primary data and results of a longitudinal study to provide evidence on the Mexican case. Regarding epidemiological changes between 2014 and 2016, there is an increase of 9-13% (p < .001). Comparing the economic burden from epidemiological changes in 2014 versus 2016 (p < .05), there is a 26% increase. The total amount spent on diabetes in 2015 (US dollars) was $ 8,974,662,570. This includes $ 3,981,426,810 in direct costs and $ 4993,235,752 in indirect costs. The second phase emphasises the analysis of diabetes as a major global public health challenge in the Americas. For this purpose a comparative analysis of epidemiological trends was carried out in seven selected Latin American countries (LACs). The results of both phases showed evidence leading to the conclusion that if the risk factors and models of health care remain as they currently are in LACs, there will be a high economic impact to patients' pockets and to health systems, which could lead to financial collapse.

Challenges on the epidemiological and economic burden of diabetes and hypertension in Mexico / Retos sobre la carga epidemiológica y económica para diabetes e hipertensión en México

ABSTRACT OBJECTIVE To analyze the epidemiological and economic burden of the health services demand due to diabetes and hypertension in Mexico. METHODS Evaluation study based on a time series study that had as a universe of study the assured and uninsured population that demands health services from the three main institutions of the Health System in Mexico: The Health Department, the Mexican Institute of Social Security, and Institute of Services and Social Security for State Workers. The financing method was based on instrumentation and consensus techniques for medium case management. In order to estimate the epidemiological changes and financial requirements, a time series of observed cases for diabetes and hypertension 1994-2013 was integrated. Probabilistic models were developed based on the Box-Jenkins technique for the period of 2013-2018 with 95% confidence intervals and p < 0.05. RESULTS Comparing results from 2013 versus 2018, in the five regions, different incremental trends of 14%-17% in epidemiological changes and 58%-66% in the economic burden for both diseases were observed. CONCLUSIONS If the risk factors and the different models of care remained as they currently are in the three institutions analyzed, the financial consequences would be of greater impact for the Mexican Institute of Social Security, following in order of importance the Institute of Services and Social Security for State Workers and lastly the Health Department. The financial needs for both diseases will represent approximately 13%-15% of the total budget allocated to the uninsured population and 15%-17% for the population insured depending on the region.

RESUMEN OBJETIVO Analizar la carga epidemiológica y económica de la demanda de servicios de salud por diabetes e hipertensión en México. MÉTODOS Investigación evaluativa basada en un estudio de series de tiempo que tomó como universo de estudio la población asegurada y no asegurada que demanda servicios de salud a las tres principales instituciones del Sistema de Salud en México: Secretaría de Salud, Instituto Mexicano del Seguro Social, e Instituto de Servicios y Seguridad Social para los Trabajadores del Estado. El método de costeo tomó como base las técnicas de instrumentación y de consenso por manejo de caso promedio. Para estimar los cambios epidemiológicos y requerimientos financieros, se integró una serie de tiempos de casos observados para diabetes e hipertensión 1994-2013. Se desarrollaron modelos probabilísticos basados en la técnica de Box-Jenkins para el periodo 2013-2018 con intervalos del 95% de confianza y p < 0.05. RESULTADOS Comparando resultados de 2013 versus 2018, en las cinco regiones, se observaron diferentes tendencias incrementales de 14%-17% en cambios epidemiológicos y de 58%-66% en la carga económica para ambas enfermedades. CONCLUSIONES Si los factores de riesgo y los diferentes modelos de atención permanecieran como están actualmente en las tres instituciones de análisis, las consecuencias financieras serían de mayor impacto para el Instituto Mexicano del Seguro Social, siguiendo en orden de importancia el Instituto de Servicios y Seguridad Social para los Trabajadores del Estado y finalmente para la Secretaría de Salud. Los requerimientos financieros para ambas enfermedades representarán aproximadamente del 13%-15% del presupuesto total asignado para población no asegurada y el 15%-17% para población asegurada dependiendo de la región.