Prediction of Suicide Attempts Using the Box-Jenkins Model.

Objective: Suicide is a preventable social harm in the field of health. The present study aimed to design a prediction model for suicide incidence based on Box-Jenkins model in Ilam province. Method : Using a retrospective method all completed and attempted suicide data were collected during 1993-2013. Then, using the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model, the time series analysis of the Box-Jenkins model was conducted to predict suicide status in the coming years (2014-2015). Results: According to the actual results obtained from the suicide data in 2014, a total of 1078 suicides were recorded and compared to the predicted results, according to the fitted model of the time series, which showed the selected model predicted 931 suicide cases, showing 86% accuracy of prediction. The series' prediction indicated 931 suicides in 2014 with a negative growth rate of 25.3% compared to 2013 and 969 suicide cases in 2015 with a positive growth rate of 3.93% compared to 2014. Conclusion: The results of this study showed the designed model provides a high diagnostic value to predict suicide rates. These types of models can help to predict suicide in future and plan to control and prevent suicide attempts.

The effects of mumie extract on cell proliferation and enzyme expression of human osteoblast-like cells (MG63).

Background: Mumie, as an inorganic and semi-solid herbal substance, could be obtained from crevice caves and is used for bone diseases in traditional medicine. This study investigated the effects of this substance on the expression of bone alkaline phosphatase (BALP) enzyme as well as proliferation and mortality rates of MG63 human osteoblast-like cells. Materials and methods: The MG63 cells were cultured and the effect of 100, 200 and 300 µg/ml of mumie extract on cell viability were compared with zoledronic acid and estradiol valerate as positive controls, as well as with MG63 cells alone as the negative control group. The activity rate of the BALP enzyme was also assessed. Results: During 48 hours of the study period, the concentrations of 100 and 200µg/ml of mumie extract increased the proliferation rate and decreased the mortality rate of MG63 cells significantly; however, the concentration of 300µg/ml decreased the proliferation rate and increased the mortality rate of the cells. Also, BALP enzyme expression was slightly affected by 100 and 200 µg/ml of mumie extract whilst it was significantly decreased by the concentration of 300 µg/ml. Conclusion: This study showed that mumie extract has an increasing effect on proliferation rate and a decreasing effect on the mortality rate of osteoblast cells in low concentrations; however, the higher concentrations of this substance could be toxic and effect inversely.

Effect of childhood BMI on asthma: a systematic review and meta-analysis of case-control studies.

BACKGROUND: Asthma is a multifactorial syndrome that threatens the health of children. Body mass index (BMI) might be one of the potential factors but the evidence is controversial. The aim of this study is to perform a comprehensive meta-analysis to investigate the association between asthma and BMI. METHODS: Electronic databases including, Web of Science, Pubmed, Scopus, Science Direct, ProQuest, up to April 2017, were searched by two researchers independently. The keywords "asthma, body mass index, obesity, overweight, childhood and adolescence" were used. Random and fixed effects models were applied to obtain the overall odds ratios (ORs) and standardized mean difference (SMD). Heterogeneity between the studies was examined using I2 and Cochrane Q statistics. RESULTS: After reviewing 2511 articles, 16 studies were eligible for meta-analysis according to inclusion/exclusion criteria. A meta-analysis from 11 case-control studies revealed OR of asthma and overweight as OR = 1.64; (95% Confidence Interval (CI): 1.13-2.38) and from 14 case-control studies, OR for asthma and obesity was OR = 1.92 (95% CI: 1.39-2.65), which indicated that risk of asthma in overweight and obese children and adolescence was significantly higher (1.64 and 1.92 times) than that of individuals with (p-value < 0.01 for underweight/normal weight in both cases). Furthermore, there was a significant relationship between asthma and BMI > 85 percentile according to SMD SMD = 0.21; (95%CI: 0.03-0.38; p-value = 0.021). CONCLUSIONS: The results showed a significant relationship between BMI (obesity/overweight) and asthma among children and adolescents. It is important to study the confounding factors that affect the relationship between asthma and BMI in future epidemiological researches.

Prevalence of low back pain in Iranian nurses: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: Low back pain (LBP) as a musculoskeletal disorder is one of the most common occupational injuries in nurses but there isn't any valid measure of the prevalence of LBP in Iranian nursing. In order to increase the power and improve the estimates of the prevalence of LBP in Iranian nurses, a comprehensive meta-analysis was carried out. A summary measure of all studies conducted in this field was found and distributions of LBP were evaluated based on different variables. METHODS: Inclusion criteria included articles with prevalence of LBP in Iranian nurses, who had at least six months of work experience without any trauma, injuries to spine, or any underlying disease. The keywords"prevalence, low back pain, nurses", and "Iran" were used as part of this search. Databases such as Pubmed, Web of Science, Science direct, Scopus, IranMedex, Irandoc, Magiran, SID, CIVILICA, IMEMR and Google scholar were searched up to and including 15 June 2016. For data extraction a form was designed that included the following variables: Author names, province, sample size, age, gender, marital status, work experience, body mass index, job type, smoking status, work schedule, year of publication, type of standard questionnaire, prevalence of LBP, studies' quality score and climate classifications. Data analysis was carried out using fixed and random effects model. Heterogeneity between studies was assessed by using the I2 and Q tests. RESULTS: In all 1250 articles were identified and 22 articles with 9347 participants met the inclusion criteria for meta-analyses after filtering. The prevalence of low back pain during their working life and during the last year, was estimated at 63% (95% Confidence Interval (CI): 57.4-68.5) and 61.2% (95% CI: 55.7-66.7) respectively. The prevalence rate of this disorder was 58.7% (95% CI: 35.8-81.7) and 60.4% (95% CI: 52.2-68.6) among men and women respectively. Furthermore, prevalence's of LBP were 59.5% in wards nurses, 50.3% in operating room technicians, and 39.4% in aid nurses. CONCLUSIONS: The results showed the high prevalence of LBP injury in nurses, especially female nurses. The effect of musculoskeletal disorders such as LBP may be reduced by considering proper observation of the principles of ergonomics in the workplace, performing physical examinations on a regular basis, identifying risk factors in the advancement of musculoskeletal disorders and then trying to fix them.

Epidemiological study of suicide by physical methods between 1993 and 2013 in Ilam province, Iran.

BACKGROUND: Suicide by aggressive physical methods such as firearms, hanging, and jumping is well known; however, different factors may influence a person while selecting a particular method. The aim of this study was to investigate the epidemiological factors involved in the selection and use of different physical methods for suicide over a long-term period in Ilam province, Iran. METHODS: The present study was conducted retrospectively between 1993 and 2013 using recorded data from a comprehensive system for registration of suicide attempts in Ilam University of Medical Sciences. The epidemiological characteristics included person, time and place variables, and the outcomes of the suicide attempts. The chi square, univariate and multivariate logistic regression models were used for data analysis. RESULTS: Totally, 1516 suicide attempts were evaluated (the annual incidence rate: 19/100,000 individuals). The most commonly used suicide method in females (88.4%) and males (38.9%) was self-immolation. Furthermore, the annual incidence rate among males and females was within the age group of 15-24 years (24.6 and 47.8/100,000 individuals). The risk of death by suicide in the age group of 55-64 years was 2.93 compared with the age group of 10-14 years (OR = 2.93; 95% CI = 0.64-13.54, P = 0.168). CONCLUSION: This study revealed that self-immolation was the most selected physical method of suicide and had the highest incidence rate, and inflicted the survivors with severe physical and mental complications. In order to reduce the use of physical methods, especially self-immolation, life skills training becomes more important than ever.

Epidemiological survey of intentional poisoning suicide during 1993-2013 in Ilam Province, Iran.

BACKGROUND: Suicide is an important social tragic phenomenon which occurs by different tools or methods in different communities. Considering deliberate poisoning as a common and important method in Ilam province for suicide, the present study was launched to epidemiologically assess committing suicide in Ilam province, Iran, based on intentional poisoning. METHODS: By a retrospective study, all the recorded data associated with intentional poisoning suicide in Ilam Province during 1993-2013 were analyzed. All the demographic variables and the suicides' outcomes were analyzed using the Chi-Square test, and the univariate and multivariate logistic regression models. RESULTS: Totally, 6794 cases of suicide (annual incidence rate of 87.28/ 100, 000) associated with poisoning were evaluated. The incidence rate of suicide attempts was 84.63/ 100, 000 (94.51 in female and 74.98 in male) and the incidence rate of completed suicide was 2.17/ 100, 000 (1.94 in female and 2.40 in male). Also, the highest rates of attempted and completed suicide (annual incidence rate of 172.42 and 4.14, respectively) were attributed to the age group of 15-24 year. CONCLUSION: Females had a greater tendency to commit suicide by poisoning, and the lower level of education, the age group of 15-24 years and single individuals were more associated with suicide using poisonings. The incidence of attempted suicide in females and completed suicide in males was higher in this method. Considering the high rate of suicide by poisoning, further attention and supervision on the sale and reserve of drugs and poisons is necessary. Meanwhile, it seems that due to momentary emotions during the pubertal stage, the risk of committing suicide is increased especially among unemployed individuals; therefore, performing an extensive psychotherapy intervention is needed in the societies with younger populations.