Development of statistical predictive models for estimating the methane yield of Italian municipal sludges from chemical composition: a preliminary study.

The biochemical methane potential (BMP) of primary and biological sludge varies in a wide range, mostly depending on location, sewer characteristics, wastewater treatment plant design and operating conditions. BMP tests are useful to verify the performance of a full scale digester, but they are not yet a common procedure in the operation of most Italian facilities because of cost and test duration. Changes in the composition of sewage sludge can lead to a high variation of biogas production. Aimed at developing BMP predictive models based on low cost and fast analyses, this study investigated the chemical composition of 20 sludge samples by means of principal component and multiple linear regression analyses. Three preliminary predictive models were developed based on soluble organic nitrogen, volatile solids, carbohydrates, proteins, lipids and an operational parameter, the sludge retention time: the explained variance and the standard errors of prediction of BMP are in the range 77-81% and 21-34 NmLCH4·gVS -1, respectively. Models were evaluated on five additional samples: errors ranged 2-15% for four samples and about 54% for one sample, collected from a peculiar facility. Further data and variables describing the operation mode of the waterline would certainly improve the reliability and robustness of the models.

Cuvier's Beaked Whale, Ziphius cavirostris, Distribution and Occurrence in the Mediterranean Sea: High-Use Areas and Conservation Threats.

Cuvier's beaked whale (Ziphius cavirostris G. Cuvier, 1823) is the only beaked whale species commonly found in the Mediterranean Sea. Until recently, species presence in this area was only inferred from stranding events. Dedicated cetacean surveys have increased our knowledge of the distribution of Cuvier's beaked whales, even though many areas still remain unexplored. Here, we present an updated analysis of available sighting and stranding data, focusing on the atypical mass strandings that have occurred in the Mediterranean Sea since 1963. We describe in detail the five more recent events (2006-14), highlighting their relationship with naval exercises that used mid-frequency active sonar. The distribution of the species is apparently characterized by areas of high density where animals seem to be relatively abundant, including the Alborán Sea, Ligurian Sea, Central Tyrrhenian Sea, southern Adriatic Sea and the Hellenic Trench, but other such areas may exist where little or no survey work has been conducted. Population size has been estimated for the Alborán and Ligurian seas. Habitat modelling studies for those areas, confirmed the species preference for the continental slope and its particular association with submarine canyons, as has also been found to be the case in other areas of the world. The application of results from habitat modelling to areas different from their calibration sites is proposed as a management tool for minimizing the potential impacts of human activities at sea. Military sonar is known worldwide as a threat for this species and is suggested to be a major threat for Cuvier's beaked whale in the Mediterranean Sea.

Risso's Dolphin, Grampus griseus, in the Western Ligurian Sea: Trends in Population Size and Habitat Use.

This paper provides a summary of 25 years of research on Risso's dolphins (Grampus griseus) in the western Ligurian Sea. Seasonal variations in abundance, distribution and habitat use were observed. Photographic mark-recapture methods provided a population size estimate for the period from 1998 to 2012, of about 100 individuals (95% CI of 60-220 individuals). The same methods detected a decline in population size from an average of about 120-150 from 2000 to 2005, to an average of 70-100 during 2010 to 2014. Species occurrence appeared to be significantly decreasing in coastal and continental slope areas, while it seemed to be stable in the most pelagic area. In addition, a dramatic change was observed in the local primary production, which was analysed based on time series of sea surface temperature and chlorophyll data from 1990 to 2014. Based on fisheries landings, there may have been a general decrease in fishery productivity, both in the western Ligurian Sea and in adjacent regions. Environmental variability, depletion of resources by fisheries and possibly interspecies competition may all have contributed to cause changes in Risso's dolphin habitat use and occurrence in the western Ligurian Sea.

SWAT meta-modeling as support of the management scenario analysis in large watersheds.

In the last two decades, numerous models and modeling techniques have been developed to simulate nonpoint source pollution effects. Most models simulate the hydrological, chemical, and physical processes involved in the entrainment and transport of sediment, nutrients, and pesticides. Very often these models require a distributed modeling approach and are limited in scope by the requirement of homogeneity and by the need to manipulate extensive data sets. Physically based models are extensively used in this field as a decision support for managing the nonpoint source emissions. A common characteristic of this type of model is a demanding input of several state variables that makes the calibration and effort-costing in implementing any simulation scenario more difficult. In this study the USDA Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was used to model the Venice Lagoon Watershed (VLW), Northern Italy. A Multi-Layer Perceptron (MLP) network was trained on SWAT simulations and used as a meta-model for scenario analysis. The MLP meta-model was successfully trained and showed an overall accuracy higher than 70% both on the training and on the evaluation set, allowing a significant simplification in conducting scenario analysis.

Disentangling the multiple stressors acting on stream ecosystems to support restoration priorities.

Stream ecosystems may suffer from the effects of multiple stressors. Planning restoration actions without knowing the relative weight of each stressor might lead to disproportionately costly or ecologically meaningless measures. This is particularly relevant under the EU Water Framework Directive where economic considerations play a role in justifying exemptions from the overarching aim of the directive of achieving the good ecological status in all the EU water bodies by 2015. In this study, we correlated the status of macroinvertebrate assemblages with many environmental variables at 120 monitoring stations (surveyed in 2009-2011) in the streams of Lombardy, Italy. We used a combination of regression techniques to disentangle the effects of the different stressors. Furthermore, different profiles of ecological quality were associated with the dominant stressors. Finally, examples are given about how these study findings provide elements to identify restoration scenarios that maximize the effectiveness/cost ratio.

Searching for a compromise between ecological quality targets, and social and ecosystem costs for heavily modified water bodies (HMWBs): the Lambro-Seveso-Olona system case study.

The Lambro-Seveso-Olona (L-S-O) system derives from the human regulation of the natural hydrology of the territory around Milan city area. The average population density in the L-S-O area is among the highest in Italy and Europe. Industry is also highly developed in this basin: chemical, textile, paper, pulp and food industries being the most important ones. Although, at present, the L-S-O system no longer receives the untreated wastewaters of the Milan urban area, treated wastewaters constitute about half of the streamflow. Biotic communities in this river have a long history of poor quality status, having suffered great damage due to domestic and industrial discharges. Recently, new chemical quality standards for macropollutants have been set by the Italian legislation as support for the good ecological status according to the Water Framework Directive (WFD). This new index is very restrictive, and it makes it extremely challenging to achieve the water quality objectives for the L-S-O system. The aim of this study is to analyse through a modelling exercise the restoration possibilities of the L-S-O system, investigating both the source apportionment of the macropollutants, the discharge limits that should be set to achieve the good quality status and their corresponding cost.

A multivariate approach to assess habitat integrity in urban streams using benthic macroinvertebrate metrics.

Benthic macroinvertebrates are widely used as indicators of the health of freshwater ecosystems, responding both to water quality and to the hydromorphological integrity. In urban streams, evaluations can be tricky for the synergistic effects of multiple stressors and confounding factors. In these situations, the most broadly used multimetric indices can be used to assess the overall damage to the invertebrate community and, thus, the overall anthropogenic pressure, but they do not allow to understand the specific causal effects. Particularly, habitat loss due to morphological alterations can be difficult to evaluate, especially due to the often concurrent disturbance caused by water pollution. We used a multivariate approach to focus on the characteristics of the streams and rivers in an urban district and to define which macroinvertebrate metrics should be used to assess the influence of the different kinds of alteration in a severely damaged environment. Some metrics enabling the assessment of habitat loss (ratio of oligochaeta, ratio of filterers) were identified. These metrics may help to raise a better awareness in the evaluation of river restoration success and, thus, in the support of decision-making processes.

Risk mapping for sensitive species to underwater anthropogenic sound emissions: model development and validation in two Mediterranean areas.

Recent observations of cetacean mass strandings, coincident with anthropogenic sounds emissions, have raised concerns on the potential environmental impact of underwater noise. Cuvier's beaked whale (Ziphius cavirostris) was reported in all the cited stranding events. Within the NATO Marine Mammal Risk Mitigation project (MMRM), multiple interdisciplinary sea trials have been conducted in the Mediterranean Sea with the objective of developing tools and procedures to mitigate the impact of underwater sound emissions. During these cruises, visual observations, passive acoustic detections and environmental data were collected. The aim of this study was to evaluate "a priori" predictions of Cuvier's beaked whale presence in the Alboran Sea, using models developed in the Ligurian Sea that employ bathymetric and chlorophyll features as predictors. The accuracy of these predictions was found adequate and elements are given to account for the uncertainties associated to the use of models developed in areas different from their calibration site.

Combined use of the EPA-QUAL2E simulation model and factor analysis to assess the source apportionment of point and non point loads of nutrients to surface waters.

Diffuse pollution is generally indirectly estimated by area and specific emission factors as function of land use. However in many cases these estimates were proven to be remarkably inaccurate. Aim of this study was to combine a water quality simulation model, (USEPA-QUAL2E) and Factor Analysis to increase the understanding of the water pollutants source apportionment. The study concerned two different watersheds, an upland area characterised by a very scarce agricultural use, and another area covering both the upland and the lowland physiographic regions. Particularly the lowland region is included in one of the most productive agricultural areas in Italy. By comparing instream measurements with QUAL2E simulations during dry and wet weather conditions, a good fit (errors +/-20%) was found for the dry weather scenario, whereas very poor was the model performance on the wet weather scenario. This was in the same way expected since the rainfall-driven pollutants scenario deviates significantly from QUAL2E general assumptions of constant emissions in steady state streamflow conditions. However the poor fit was also due to the scarcer reliability of the adopted non point emission estimates. Despite of approximations the model wet weather simulations enabled to estimate the non point contribution to the instream load at the rainfall event scale resolution. Such diffuse sources contribution was found around 80% in the area of extensive agricultural land use, and around 40% in the upland region. Factor Analysis applied to the instream measurements data shed light on the exchange from the groundwater to the surface water system that occurred in the upland region. The hypothesis of a groundwater contribution to the instream total load of nitrates was also supported by QUAL2E simulations that, when considering only the point loads, systematically underestimate the dry weather nitrate concentrations. The same pattern was not observed for the lowland region.

Assessment of drinking water radioactivity content by liquid scintillation counting: set up of high sensitivity and emergency procedures.

In our institute, different procedures have been developed to measure the radioactivity content of drinking water both in normal and in emergency situations, such as those arising from accidental and terrorist events. A single radiometric technique, namely low level liquid scintillation counting (LSC), has been used. In emergency situations a gross activity screening is carried out without any sample treatment by a single and quick liquid scintillation counting. Alpha and beta activities can be measured in more than one hundred samples per day with sensitivities of a few Bq/L. Higher sensitivity gross alpha and beta, uranium and radium measurements can be performed on water samples after specific sample treatments. The sequential method proposed is designed in such a way that the same water sample can be used in all the stages, with slight modifications. This sequential procedure was applied in a survey of the Lombardia district. At first tap waters of the 13 largest towns were examined, then a more detailed monitoring was carried out in the surroundings of Milano and Lodi towns. The high sensitivity method for the determination of uranium isotopes was used to check the presence of depleted uranium in Lake Garda. Reduced equipment requirements and relative readiness of radiochemical procedures make LSC an attractive technique which can also be applied by laboratories lacking specific radiochemistry facilities and experience.