hERG-toxicity prediction using traditional machine learning and advanced deep learning techniques.

The rise of artificial intelligence (AI) based algorithms has gained a lot of interest in the pharmaceutical development field. Our study demonstrates utilization of traditional machine learning techniques such as random forest (RF), support-vector machine (SVM), extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost), deep neural network (DNN) as well as advanced deep learning techniques like gated recurrent unit-based DNN (GRU-DNN) and graph neural network (GNN), towards predicting human ether-á-go-go related gene (hERG) derived toxicity. Using the largest hERG dataset derived to date, we have utilized 203,853 and 87,366 compounds for training and testing the models, respectively. The results show that GNN, SVM, XGBoost, DNN, RF, and GRU-DNN all performed well, with validation set AUC ROC scores equals 0.96, 0.95, 0.95, 0.94, 0.94 and 0.94, respectively. The GNN was found to be the top performing model based on predictive power and generalizability. The GNN technique is free of any feature engineering steps while having a minimal human intervention. The GNN approach may serve as a basis for comprehensive automation in predictive toxicology. We believe that the models presented here may serve as a promising tool, both for academic institutes as well as pharmaceutical industries, in predicting hERG-liability in new molecular structures.

Bayesian uncertainty quantification in linear models for diffusion MRI.

Diffusion MRI (dMRI) is a valuable tool in the assessment of tissue microstructure. By fitting a model to the dMRI signal it is possible to derive various quantitative features. Several of the most popular dMRI signal models are expansions in an appropriately chosen basis, where the coefficients are determined using some variation of least-squares. However, such approaches lack any notion of uncertainty, which could be valuable in e.g. group analyses. In this work, we use a probabilistic interpretation of linear least-squares methods to recast popular dMRI models as Bayesian ones. This makes it possible to quantify the uncertainty of any derived quantity. In particular, for quantities that are affine functions of the coefficients, the posterior distribution can be expressed in closed-form. We simulated measurements from single- and double-tensor models where the correct values of several quantities are known, to validate that the theoretically derived quantiles agree with those observed empirically. We included results from residual bootstrap for comparison and found good agreement. The validation employed several different models: Diffusion Tensor Imaging (DTI), Mean Apparent Propagator MRI (MAP-MRI) and Constrained Spherical Deconvolution (CSD). We also used in vivo data to visualize maps of quantitative features and corresponding uncertainties, and to show how our approach can be used in a group analysis to downweight subjects with high uncertainty. In summary, we convert successful linear models for dMRI signal estimation to probabilistic models, capable of accurate uncertainty quantification.