Observed mechanisms activating the recent subpolar North Atlantic Warming since 2016.

The overturning circulation of the subpolar North Atlantic (SPNA) plays a fundamental role in Earth's climate variability and change. Here, we show from observations that the recent warming period since about 2016 in the eastern SPNA involves increased western boundary density at the intergyre boundary, likely due to enhanced buoyancy forcing as a response to the strong increase in the North Atlantic Oscillation since the early 2010s. As these deep positive density anomalies spread southward along the western boundary, they enhance the North Atlantic Current and associated meridional heat transport at the intergyre region, leading to increased influx of subtropical heat into the eastern SPNA. Based on the timing of this chain of events, we conclude that this recent warming phase since about 2016 is primarily associated with this observed mechanism of changes in deep western boundary density, an essential element in these interactions. This article is part of a discussion meeting issue 'Atlantic overturning: new observations and challenges'.

Arctic sea ice, ocean, and climate evolution.

Wind variability affects the rate of Arctic sea ice decline.

Reframing the carbon cycle of the subpolar Southern Ocean.

Global climate is critically sensitive to physical and biogeochemical dynamics in the subpolar Southern Ocean, since it is here that deep, carbon-rich layers of the world ocean outcrop and exchange carbon with the atmosphere. Here, we present evidence that the conventional framework for the subpolar Southern Ocean carbon cycle, which attributes a dominant role to the vertical overturning circulation and shelf-sea processes, fundamentally misrepresents the drivers of regional carbon uptake. Observations in the Weddell Gyre-a key representative region of the subpolar Southern Ocean-show that the rate of carbon uptake is set by an interplay between the Gyre's horizontal circulation and the remineralization at mid-depths of organic carbon sourced from biological production in the central gyre. These results demonstrate that reframing the carbon cycle of the subpolar Southern Ocean is an essential step to better define its role in past and future climate change.

Arctic mass, freshwater and heat fluxes: methods and modelled seasonal variability.

Considering the Arctic Ocean (including sea ice) as a defined volume, we develop equations describing the time-varying fluxes of mass, heat and freshwater (FW) into, and storage of those quantities within, that volume. The seasonal cycles of fluxes and storage of mass, heat and FW are quantified and illustrated using output from a numerical model. The meanings of 'reference values' and FW fluxes are discussed, and the potential for error through the use of arbitrary reference values is examined.

A seamless approach to understanding and predicting Arctic sea ice in Met Office modelling systems.

Recent CMIP5 models predict large losses of summer Arctic sea ice, with only mitigation scenarios showing sustainable summer ice. Sea ice is inherently part of the climate system, and heat fluxes affecting sea ice can be small residuals of much larger air-sea fluxes. We discuss analysis of energy budgets in the Met Office climate models which point to the importance of early summer processes (such as clouds and meltponds) in determining both the seasonal cycle and the trend in ice decline. We give examples from Met Office modelling systems to illustrate how the seamless use of models for forecasting on time scales from short range to decadal might help to unlock the drivers of high latitude biases in climate models.