PAEA End of Rotation™ Exams Accurately Identify Students at Risk of Physician Assistant National Certifying Exam Failure.

PURPOSE: Physician Assistant Education Association (PAEA) End of Rotation™ exams are used by programs across the country. However, little information exists on the predictive ability of the exams' scale scores and Physician Assistant National Certifying Exam (PANCE) performance. The purpose of this study was to evaluate End of Rotation exam scores and their relationship with poor PANCE performance (PPP). METHODS: In an IRB-approved, multi-center, multi-year study, associations between PAEA End of Rotation exam scale scores and PANCE scores were explored. A taxonomy of nested linear regression models with random intercepts was fit at the program level. Fully adjusted models controlled for year, timing of the exam, student age, and gender. RESULTS: Fully adjusted linear models found that 10-point increases in End of Rotation exam scores were associated with a 16.8-point (95% confidence interval [CI]: 14.1-19.6) to 23.5-point (95% CI: 20.6-26.5) increase in PANCE score for Women's Health and Emergency Medicine, respectively. Associations between exams did not significantly vary (P = .768). Logistic models found End of Rotation exam scores were strongly and consistently associated with lower odds of PPP, with higher exam scores (10-point increase) associated with decrements in odds of PPP, ranging between 37% and 48% across exams. The effect estimate for the Emergency Medicine exam was consistently stronger in all models. CONCLUSIONS: PAEA End of Rotation exam scores were consistently predictive of PPP. While each End of Rotation exam measures a specialty content area, the association with the overall PANCE score varied only by a change in odds of low performance or failure by a small percentage. Low End of Rotation exam scores appear to be consistent predictors of PPP in our multi-center cohort of physician assistant students.

Admissions Variables: Predictors of Physician Assistant Student Success.

PURPOSE: Physician assistant (PA) programs have heterogeneous admissions processes, but limited information is available as to which preadmission variables are associated with the greatest PA program success. We assessed the associations between preadmission criteria and PA program outcomes while accounting for numerous potential confounders and potential cohort effects. METHODS: In a sample of 147 students from a single New England PA program, we used random intercept multiple regression models to examine the associations between 2 PA program outcomes-Physician Assistant National Certifying Examination (PANCE) scores and PA program grade point averages (GPAs)-and multiple predictors of interest, including undergraduate GPA; hours of paid, hands-on patient care experience; and undergraduate institution rank. Fully adjusted models additionally controlled for age and educationally or economically disadvantaged background. RESULTS: In fully adjusted models, a 1-unit increase in undergraduate GPA (54.55 ± 20.32, P = .012) and a 10% increase in preadmission clinical experience hours (18.32 ± 8.50, P = .033) were significantly associated with increased PANCE scores. When PA program GPA was examined as an outcome, only undergraduate GPA was significantly associated (0.15 ± 0.05, P = .004). Undergraduate institution rank was not a significant predictor in any model. CONCLUSIONS: Undergraduate GPA and preadmission clinical experience hours were significant predictors of student outcomes in this small, retrospective cohort study. Undergraduate institution rank was highly nonsignificant in all models. These findings add to the burgeoning literature on admissions predictors of PA program success.