Models to predict length of stay in the emergency department: a systematic literature review and appraisal.

INTRODUCTION: Prolonged Length of Stay (LOS) in ED (Emergency Department) has been associated with poor clinical outcomes. Prediction of ED LOS may help optimize resource utilization, clinical management, and benchmarking. This study aims to systematically review models for predicting ED LOS and to assess the reporting and methodological quality about these models. METHODS: The online database PubMed, Scopus, and Web of Science (10 Sep 2023) was searched for English language articles that reported prediction models of LOS in ED. Identified titles and abstracts were independently screened by two reviewers. All original papers describing either development (with or without internal validation) or external validation of a prediction model for LOS in ED were included. RESULTS: Of 12,193 uniquely identified articles, 34 studies were included (29 describe the development of new models and five describe the validation of existing models). Different statistical and machine learning methods were applied to the papers. On the 39-point reporting score and 11-point methodological quality score, the highest reporting scores for development and validation studies were 39 and 8, respectively. CONCLUSION: Various studies on prediction models for ED LOS were published but they are fairly heterogeneous and suffer from methodological and reporting issues. Model development studies were associated with a poor to a fair level of methodological quality in terms of the predictor selection approach, the sample size, reproducibility of the results, missing imputation technique, and avoiding dichotomizing continuous variables. Moreover, it is recommended that future investigators use the confirmed checklist to improve the quality of reporting.

Determining the Prevalence of Retinopathy and Its Related Factors among Patients with Type 2 Diabetes in Kerman, Iran.

OBJECTIVES: To determine the prevalence of retinopathy and its associated factors in diabetic patients referred to a diabetes center in an Iranian city. METHODS: This was a cross-sectional, descriptive-analytical study in which a researcher-made checklist was used to collect the data of patients with type 2 diabetes in 2015. The statistical population consisted of 11,770 health records of diabetic patients registered in a second-level diabetes center. Of the 11,770 health records, 206 records with the most complete data about patients with type 2 diabetes were selected through census method. Chi-square test and logistic regression through SPSS were used for data analysis. RESULTS: In this study, 93/206 diabetic patients (45.1%) had retinopathy. Female sex, age over 60, lower education level, being housewife, family history of having diabetes, longer years of having the disease, and higher level of hemoglobin A1c (HbA1c) were associated with higher risk of retinopathy. However, the association was statistically significant only for the HbA1c level (p ≥ 0.05). CONCLUSION: According to this study, HbA1c level is a predictor of diabetes complications. Therefore, it is necessary for health authorities to improve diabetes management through different strategies to prevent complications to control blood sugar effectively.

Estimating the relapse risk of Plasmodium vivax in Iran under national chemotherapy scheme using a novel method.

OBJECTIVES: This study aimed to estimate the relapse risk of Plasmodium vivax under national chemotherapy scheme using a novel method, and assessed its pattern in Kahnooj, a malaria endemic area in Iran. METHODS: The authors traced repeated episodes of malaria attack between 1994 and 2001 and then, estimated the risks of secondary attack of P. vivax, classified by the species in their primary attack. It is suggested that the difference between the secondary attack rate in those who were infected by P falciparum and P. vivax in their primary attack may estimate the P. vivax relapse rate indirectly. RESULTS: This method showed that the relapse risk of P. vivax with in one and two years after the primary attack were 16.8 and 24.5% respectively. The risks of relapse before three or after 18 months were very low. INTERPRETATION & CONCLUSION: The relapse pattern of P. vivax was compatible with the dominant pattern in most of the temperate areas. In addition, the relapse risk was very close to the estimated relapse risks in clinical trials on anti-relapse drugs. Therefore, we concluded that the anti-relapse therapy in the study area was effective; also, this method may estimate the relapse risk of P. vivax accurately.