Response to a COVID-19 Outbreak on a University Campus - Indiana, August 2020.

Institutions of higher education adopted different approaches for the fall semester 2020 in response to the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. Approximately 45% of colleges and universities implemented online instruction, more than one fourth (27%) provided in-person instruction, and 21% used a hybrid model (1). Although CDC has published COVID-19 guidance for institutions of higher education (2-4), little has been published regarding the response to COVID-19 outbreaks on college and university campuses (5). In August 2020, an Indiana university with approximately 12,000 students (including 8,000 undergraduate students, 85% of whom lived on campus) implemented various public health measures to reduce transmission of SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19. Despite these measures, the university experienced an outbreak involving 371 cases during the first few weeks of the fall semester. The majority of cases occurred among undergraduate students living off campus, and several large off-campus gatherings were identified as common sources of exposure. Rather than sending students home, the university switched from in-person to online instruction for undergraduate students and instituted a series of campus restrictions for 2 weeks, during which testing, contact tracing, and isolation and quarantine programs were substantially enhanced, along with educational efforts highlighting the need for strict adherence to the mitigation measures. After 2 weeks, the university implemented a phased return to in-person instruction (with 85% of classes offered in person) and resumption of student life activities. This report describes the outbreak and the data-driven, targeted interventions and rapid escalation of testing, tracing, and isolation measures that enabled the medium-sized university to resume in-person instruction and campus activities. These strategies might prove useful to other colleges and universities responding to campus outbreaks.

Not Normal: the uncertainties of scientific measurements.

Judging the significance and reproducibility of quantitative research requires a good understanding of relevant uncertainties, but it is often unclear how well these have been evaluated and what they imply. Reported scientific uncertainties were studied by analysing 41 000 measurements of 3200 quantities from medicine, nuclear and particle physics, and interlaboratory comparisons ranging from chemistry to toxicology. Outliers are common, with 5σ disagreements up to five orders of magnitude more frequent than naively expected. Uncertainty-normalized differences between multiple measurements of the same quantity are consistent with heavy-tailed Student's t-distributions that are often almost Cauchy, far from a Gaussian Normal bell curve. Medical research uncertainties are generally as well evaluated as those in physics, but physics uncertainty improves more rapidly, making feasible simple significance criteria such as the 5σ discovery convention in particle physics. Contributions to measurement uncertainty from mistakes and unknown problems are not completely unpredictable. Such errors appear to have power-law distributions consistent with how designed complex systems fail, and how unknown systematic errors are constrained by researchers. This better understanding may help improve analysis and meta-analysis of data, and help scientists and the public have more realistic expectations of what scientific results imply.