Development of a long noncoding RNA-based machine learning model to predict COVID-19 in-hospital mortality.

Tools for predicting COVID-19 outcomes enable personalized healthcare, potentially easing the disease burden. This collaborative study by 15 institutions across Europe aimed to develop a machine learning model for predicting the risk of in-hospital mortality post-SARS-CoV-2 infection. Blood samples and clinical data from 1286 COVID-19 patients collected from 2020 to 2023 across four cohorts in Europe and Canada were analyzed, with 2906 long non-coding RNAs profiled using targeted sequencing. From a discovery cohort combining three European cohorts and 804 patients, age and the long non-coding RNA LEF1-AS1 were identified as predictive features, yielding an AUC of 0.83 (95% CI 0.82-0.84) and a balanced accuracy of 0.78 (95% CI 0.77-0.79) with a feedforward neural network classifier. Validation in an independent Canadian cohort of 482 patients showed consistent performance. Cox regression analysis indicated that higher levels of LEF1-AS1 correlated with reduced mortality risk (age-adjusted hazard ratio 0.54, 95% CI 0.40-0.74). Quantitative PCR validated LEF1-AS1's adaptability to be measured in hospital settings. Here, we demonstrate a promising predictive model for enhancing COVID-19 patient management.

Characterization of Dissolved Organic Matter from Agricultural and Livestock Effluents: Implications for Water Quality Monitoring.

There is growing concern about the impact of agricultural practices on water quality. The loss of nutrients such as nitrogen and phosphorous through agricultural runoff poses a potential risk of water quality degradation. However, it is unclear how dissolved organic matter (DOM) composition is associated with pollution levels in water bodies. To address this, we conducted a cross-year investigation to reveal the nature of DOM and its relationship to water quality in agricultural effluents (AEs) and livestock effluents (LEs). We discovered that DOM fluorescence components of AEs were mainly from autochthonous and terrestrial sources, while in LEs it was primarily from autochthonous sources. LEs showed a higher ß:α and biological index (BIX) than AEs, indicating that LEs had higher biological activity. Compared to the LEs, DOM in AEs exhibited a higher humification index (HIX), illustrating that DOM was more humic and aromatic. Overall, our results suggest that the BIX and fluorescence index (FI) were best suited for the characterization of water bodies impacted by LEs and AEs. Excitation-emission matrix spectroscopy and parallel factor (EEMs-PARAFAC) analysis showed that DOM in AEs was mainly a humic-like material (~64%) and in LEs was mainly protein-like (~68%). Tryptophan-like compounds (C1) were made more abundant in AEs because of the breakdown of aquatic vegetation. The microbial activity enhanced protein-like substances (C1 and C2) in LEs. Our study revealed a positive correlation between five-day biochemical oxygen demand (BOD5) concentrations and tyrosine-like substance components, suggesting that fluorescence peak B may be a good predictor of water quality affected by anthropogenic activities. For both LEs and AEs, our results suggest that peak D may be a reliable water quality surrogate for total phosphorus (TP).

Manganese-Enhanced Magnetic Resonance Imaging in Takotsubo Syndrome.

BACKGROUND: Takotsubo syndrome is an acute cardiac emergency characterized by transient left ventricular systolic dysfunction typically following a stressful event. Despite its rapidly rising incidence, its pathophysiology remains poorly understood. Takotsubo syndrome may pass unrecognized, especially if timely diagnostic imaging is not performed. Defective myocardial calcium homeostasis is a central cause of contractile dysfunction and has not been explored in takotsubo syndrome. We aimed to investigate myocardial calcium handling using manganese-enhanced magnetic resonance imaging during the acute and recovery phases of takotsubo syndrome. METHODS: Twenty patients with takotsubo syndrome (63±12 years of age; 90% female) and 20 volunteers matched on age, sex, and cardiovascular risk factors (59±11 years of age; 70% female) were recruited from the Edinburgh Heart Centre between March 2020 and October 2021. Patients underwent gadolinium and manganese-enhanced magnetic resonance imaging during index hospitalization with repeat manganese-enhanced magnetic resonance imaging performed after at least 3 months. RESULTS: Compared with matched control volunteers, patients had a reduced left ventricular ejection fraction (51±11 versus 67±8%; P<0.001), increased left ventricular mass (86±11 versus 57±14 g/m2; P<0.001), and, in affected myocardial segments, elevated native T1 (1358±49 versus 1211±28 ms; P<0.001) and T2 (60±7 versus 38±3 ms; P<0.0001) values at their index presentation. During manganese-enhanced imaging, kinetic modeling demonstrated a substantial reduction in myocardial manganese uptake (5.1±0.5 versus 8.2±1.1 mL/[100 g of tissue ·min], respectively; P<0.0001), consistent with markedly abnormal myocardial calcium handling. After recovery, left ejection fraction, left ventricular mass, and T2 values were comparable with those of matched control volunteers. Despite this, native and postmanganese T1 and myocardial manganese uptake remained abnormal compared with matched control volunteers (6.6±0.5 versus 8.2±1.1 mL/[100 g of tissue ·min]; P<0.0001). CONCLUSIONS: In patients with takotsubo syndrome, there is a profound perturbation of myocardial manganese uptake, which is most marked in the acute phase but persists for at least 3 months despite apparent restoration of normal left ventricular ejection fraction and resolution of myocardial edema, suggesting abnormal myocardial calcium handling may be implicated in the pathophysiology of takotsubo syndrome. Manganese-enhanced magnetic resonance imaging has major potential to assist in the diagnosis, characterization, and risk stratification of patients with takotsubo syndrome. REGISTRATION: URL: https://www. CLINICALTRIALS: gov; Unique identifier: NCT04623788.

A new conceptual framework for the transformation of groundwater dissolved organic matter.

Groundwater comprises 95% of the liquid fresh water on Earth and contains a diverse mix of dissolved organic matter (DOM) molecules which play a significant role in the global carbon cycle. Currently, the storage times and degradation pathways of groundwater DOM are unclear, preventing an accurate estimate of groundwater carbon sources and sinks for global carbon budgets. Here we reveal the transformations of DOM in aging groundwater using ultra-high resolution mass spectrometry combined with radiocarbon dating. Long-term anoxia and a lack of photodegradation leads to the removal of oxidised DOM and a build-up of both reduced photodegradable formulae and aerobically biolabile formulae with a strong microbial signal. This contrasts with the degradation pathway of DOM in oxic marine, river, and lake systems. Our findings suggest that processes such as groundwater extraction and subterranean groundwater discharge to oceans could result in up to 13 Tg of highly photolabile and aerobically biolabile groundwater dissolved organic carbon released to surface environments per year, where it can be rapidly degraded. These findings highlight the importance of considering groundwater DOM in global carbon budgets.

Late Holocene climate anomaly concurrent with fire activity and ecosystem shifts in the eastern Australian Highlands.

The alpine area of the Australian mainland is highly sensitive to climate and environmental change, and potentially vulnerable to ecosystem tipping points. Over the next two decades the Australian alpine region is predicted to experience temperature increases of at least 1 °C, coupled with a substantial decrease in snow cover. Extending the short instrumental record in these regions is imperative to put future change into context, and potentially provide analogues of warming. We reconstructed past temperatures, using a lipid biomarker palaeothermometer technique and mercury flux changes for the past 3500 years from the sediments of Club Lake, a high-altitude alpine tarn in the Snowy Mountains, southeastern Australia. Using a multi-proxy framework, including pollen and charcoal analyses, high-resolution geochemistry, and ancient microbial community composition, supported by high-resolution 210Pb and AMS 14C dating, we investigated local and regional ecological and environmental changes occurring in response to changes in temperature. We find the region experienced a general warming trend over the last 3500 years, with a pronounced climate anomaly occurring between 1000 and 1600 cal yrs. BP. Shifts in vegetation took place during this warm period, characterised by a decline in alpine species and an increase in open woodland taxa which co-occurred with an increase in regional fire activity. Given the narrow altitudinal band of Australian alpine vegetation, any future warming has the potential to result in the extinction of alpine species, including several endemic to the area, as treelines are driven to higher elevations. These findings suggest ongoing conservation efforts will be needed to protect the vulnerable alpine environments from the combined threats of climate changes, fire and invasive species.

Characterisation of groundwater dissolved organic matter using LCOCD: Implications for water treatment.

The polarity and molecular weight of dissolved organic matter (DOM) is an important factor determining the treatability of water for domestic supply. DOM in surface water and groundwater is comprised of a mixture of carbon with varying molecular weight ranges, with its composition driven by DOM sources and processing. Here, we present the largest dataset of chromatographic DOM in surface and groundwater samples (n = 246) using liquid chromatography organic carbon detection (LCOCD). Our data represents four categories (surface water, hyporheic zone water, local groundwater, and regional groundwater) from five different sites across Australia. In all environments, high molecular weight hydrophilic DOM such as biopolymers (BP) and humic substances (HS) are present in surface waters and are processed out of groundwater as it moves from surface water and hyporheic zones into shallow local groundwater and deeper regional groundwaters. This results in a higher percentage of low molecular weight neutrals (LMWN) and hydrophobic organic carbon (HOC) in deeper regional groundwaters. Our findings indicate that the presence of sedimentary organic matter strongly influence the character of surface and groundwater DOM, resulting in groundwater with higher HS aromaticity and molecular weight, and reduced percentage of LMWNs. We also observe highly variable hydrophilic / HOC ratios in groundwater at all sites, with 9.60% and 25.64% of samples at sites containing sedimentary peat layers and non-sedimentary peat sites respectively containing only hydrophilic dissolved organic carbon (DOC). We identify average hydrophilic / HOC ratios of 4.35 ± 3.76 and 7.53 ± 5.32 at sites containing sedimentary peat layers and non-sedimentary peat sites respectively where both hydrophilic DOC and HOC are present. Overall our results suggest that fractured rock and alluvial aquifers in sedimentary organic carbon poor environments may contain DOC which is better suited to ozonation, biologically activated carbon filtration powdered activated carbon, suspended ion exchange treatment or magnetic ion exchange resin since DOC is more hydrophilic and of lower molecular weight and lower aromaticity. Aquifers located near sedimentary organic matter layers may benefit from pre-treatment by coagulation/flocculation, sedimentation and sand filtration which have high removal efficiency for high molecular weight and polar compounds.

Changes in global groundwater organic carbon driven by climate change and urbanization.

Climate change and urbanization can increase pressures on groundwater resources, but little is known about how groundwater quality will change. Here, we use a global synthesis (n = 9,404) to reveal the drivers of dissolved organic carbon (DOC), which is an important component of water chemistry and substrate for microorganisms that control biogeochemical reactions. Dissolved inorganic chemistry, local climate and land use explained ~ 31% of observed variability in groundwater DOC, whilst aquifer age explained an additional 16%. We identify a 19% increase in DOC associated with urban land cover. We predict major groundwater DOC increases following changes in precipitation and temperature in key areas relying on groundwater. Climate change and conversion of natural or agricultural areas to urban areas will decrease groundwater quality and increase water treatment costs, compounding existing constraints on groundwater resources.

A 35 ka record of groundwater recharge in south-west Australia using stable water isotopes.

The isotopic composition of groundwater can be a useful indicator of recharge conditions and may be used as an archive to infer past climate variability. Groundwater from two largely confined aquifers in south-west Australia, recharged at the northernmost extent of the westerly wind belt, can help constrain the palaeoclimate record in this region. We demonstrate that radiocarbon age measurements of dissolved inorganic carbon are appropriate for dating groundwater from the Leederville aquifer and Yarragadee aquifer within the Perth Basin. Variations in groundwater δ18O values with mean residence time were examined using regional and flow line data sets, which were compared. The trends in the regional groundwater data are consistent with the groundwater flow line data supporting the hypothesis that groundwater δ18O is a robust proxy for palaeo-recharge in the Perth Basin. A comparison between modern groundwater and rainfall water isotopes indicates that recharge is biased to months with high volume and/or intense rainfall from the westerly wind circulation and that this has been the case for the last 35 ka. Lower stable water isotope values are interpreted to represent recharge from higher volume and/or more intense rainfall from 35 ka through the Last Glacial Maximum period although potentially modulated by changes in recharge thresholds. The Southern Perth Basin groundwater isotopic record also indicates a trend towards higher volume and/or intense rainfall during the Mid- to Late Holocene. The long-term stable water isotope record provides an understanding of groundwater palaeo-recharge. Knowledge of recharge dynamics over long time scales can be used to improve current water sharing plans and future groundwater model predictions.

How water isotopes (18O, 2H, 3H) within an island freshwater lens respond to changes in rainfall.

Coastal aquifers provide an important source of water globally. Understanding how groundwater responds to changes in rainfall recharge is important for sustainable development. To this end, we investigate how water isotopes (18O, 2H, 3H) and chloride (Cl) concentrations within an island freshwater lens respond under varying rainfall conditions in a region experiencing climate change. Uniquely, this study presents a three year dataset of groundwater collected seasonally between May 2013 and August 2016 from ten wells. Variation in all tracers was observed. The Cl and tritium (3H) show opposing seasonal variation in some sections of the lens, with higher Cl observed in the austral summer when less rainfall occurs and evapotranspiration is highest. The opposite occurs in the austral winter months when 3H increases from atmospheric input via rainfall recharge, and Cl is diluted. An overall decline in 3H values and enrichment in stable water isotopes over the study period was also observed. This study shows that understanding groundwater of freshwater lenses should not rely on a single sampling campaign because seasonal variability is large. The identification of a dual recharge regime, with contributions from both winter rainfall and episodic events, has important implications for understanding the future fate of the freshwater lens on Rottnest Island. The finding that episodic rainfall is a major contributor to groundwater recharge is important and can only be assessed with a multi-year isotope dataset for groundwater and rainfall.

Changes in groundwater dissolved organic matter character in a coastal sand aquifer due to rainfall recharge.

Dissolved organic matter (DOM) in groundwater is fundamentally important with respect to biogeochemical reactions, global carbon cycling, heavy metal transport, water treatability and potability. One source of DOM to groundwater is from the transport of organic matter from the vadose zone by rainfall recharge. Changes in precipitation patterns associated with natural climate variability and climate change are expected to alter the load and character of organic matter released from these areas, which ultimately impacts on groundwater quality and DOM treatability. In order to investigate potential changes in groundwater DOM character after rainfall recharge, we sampled shallow groundwater from a coastal peat-rich sand aquifer in New South Wales, Australia, during an extended period of low precipitation (average daily precipitation rate < 1.6 mm day-1 over the 8 months prior to sampling), and after two heavy precipitation events (84 mm day-1 and 98 mm day-1 respectively). We assess changes in DOM composition after correcting for dilution by a novel combination of two advanced analytical techniques: liquid chromatography organic carbon detection (LC-OCD) and negative-ion electrospray ionization Fourier transform ion cyclotron resonance mass spectrometry (FT-ICR MS). We also assess changes in water chemistry pre- and post-rainfall. Post-rainfall, we show that the dilution-corrected amount of highly aromatic DOM molecular formulae (i.e. those categorised into the groups polyphenolics and condensed aromatics) were 1.7 and 2.0 times higher respectively than in pre-rainfall samples. We attribute this to the flushing of peat-derived DOM from buried organic material into the groundwater. We also identify that periods of low precipitation can lead to low hydrophilic/HOC ratios in groundwater (median = 4.9, n = 14). Redundancy analysis (RDA) was used to compare the HOC fraction with FT-ICR MS compound groups. We show that HOC has a more aromatic character in pre-rainfall samples, and is less similar to the aromatic groups in post-rainfall samples. This suggests that the decline in water-borne hydrophobics observed post-rainfall could be associated with preferential adsorption of the hydrophobic aromatic DOM, making post-rainfall samples less treatable for potable water supply. Post-rainfall we also observe significant increases in arsenic (leading to concentrations greater than 3 times the World Health Organisation drinking water limit of 10 µg / L). Increases in coastal rainfall due to climate change may therefore alter the composition of groundwater DOM in coastal peatland areas in ways that may impact DOM bioavailability, and increase arsenic concentrations, reducing the ease of water treatment for human consumption. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first study to identify the chemical and molecular changes of shallow groundwater DOM pre-rainfall and post-rainfall in a sedimentary organic carbon rich environment through multiple analytical techniques.

In situ fluorescence measurements of dissolved organic matter: A review.

There is a need for an inexpensive, reliable and fast monitoring tool to detect contaminants in a short time, for quick mitigation of pollution sources and site remediation, and for characterization of natural dissolved organic matter (DOM). Fluorescence spectroscopy has proven to be an excellent technique in quantifying aquatic DOM, from autochthonous, allochthonous or anthropogenic sources. This paper reviews the advances in in situ fluorescence measurements of DOM and pollutants in various water environments. Studies have demonstrated, using high temporal-frequency DOM fluorescence data, that marine autochthonous production of DOM is highly complex and that the allochthonous input of DOM from freshwater to marine water can be predicted. Furthermore, river measurement studies found a delayed fluorescence response of DOM following precipitation compared to turbidity and discharge, with various lags, depending on season, site and input of dissolved organic carbon (DOC) concentration. In addition, research has shown that blue light fluorescence (λemission = 430-500 nm) can be a good proxy for DOC, in environments with terrestrial inputs, and ultraviolet fluorescence (λemission = UVA-320-400 nm) for biochemical oxygen demand, and also E. coli in environments with sanitation issues. The correction of raw fluorescence data improves the relationship between fluorescence intensity and these parameters. This review also presents the specific steps and parameters that must be considered before and during in situ fluorescence measurement session for a harmonized qualitative and quantitative protocol. Finally, the strengths and weaknesses of the research on in situ fluorescence are identified.

Global analysis reveals climatic controls on the oxygen isotope composition of cave drip water.

The oxygen isotope composition of speleothems is a widely used proxy for past climate change. Robust use of this proxy depends on understanding the relationship between precipitation and cave drip water δ18O. Here, we present the first global analysis, based on data from 163 drip sites, from 39 caves on five continents, showing that drip water δ18O is most similar to the amount-weighted precipitation δ18O where mean annual temperature (MAT) is < 10 °C. By contrast, for seasonal climates with MAT > 10 °C and < 16 °C, drip water δ18O records the recharge-weighted δ18O. This implies that the δ18O of speleothems (formed in near isotopic equilibrium) are most likely to directly reflect meteoric precipitation in cool climates only. In warmer and drier environments, speleothems will have a seasonal bias toward the precipitation δ18O of recharge periods and, in some cases, the extent of evaporative fractionation of stored karst water.

Hydrological and geochemical responses of fire in a shallow cave system.

The influence of wildfire on surface soil and hydrology has been widely investigated, while its impact on the karst vadose zone is still poorly understood. A moderate to severe experimental fire was conducted on a plot (10 m × 10 m) above the shallow Wildman's Cave at Wombeyan Caves, New South Wales, Australia in May 2016. Continuous sampling of water stable isotopes, inorganic geochemistry and drip rates were conducted from Dec 2014 to May 2017. After the fire, drip discharge patterns were significantly altered, which is interpreted as the result of increased preferential flows and decreased diffuse flows in the soil. Post-fire drip water δ18O decreased by 6.3‰ in the first month relative to the average pre-fire isotopic composition. Post-fire monitoring showed an increase in drip water δ18O in the following six months. Bedrock related solutes (calcium, magnesium, strontium) decreased rapidly after the fire due to reduced limestone dissolution time and potentially reduced soil CO2. Soil- and ash-derived solutes (boron, lead, potassium, sodium, silicon, iodine and iron) all decreased after the fire due to volatilisation at high temperatures, except for SO42-. This is the first study to understand the hydrological impact from severe fires conducted on a karst system. It provides new insights on the cave recharge process, with a potential explanation for the decreased d18O in speleothem-based fire study, and also utilise the decreased bedrock solutes to assess the wildfire impacts both in short and long time scales.

Analysis of the Preserved Amino Acid Bias in Peptide Profiles of Iron Age Teeth from a Tropical Environment Enable Sexing of Individuals Using Amelogenin MRM.

The first dental proteomic profile of Iron Age individuals (ca. 2000-1000 years B.P.), collected from the site of Long Long Rak rock shelter in northwest Thailand is described. A bias toward the preservation of the positively charged aromatic, and polar amino acids is observed. It is evident that the 212 proteins identified (2 peptide, FDR <1%) comprise a palimpsest of alterations that occurred both ante-mortem and post-mortem. Conservation of amino acids within the taphonomically resistant crystalline matrix enabled the identification of both X and Y chromosome linked amelogenin peptides. A novel multiple reaction monitoring method using the sex specific amelogenin protein isoforms is described and indicate the teeth are of male origin. Functional analysis shows an enrichment of pathways associated with metabolic disorders and shows a capacity for harboring these conditions prior to death. Stable isotope analysis using carbon isotopes highlights the strongly C3 based (≈80%) diet of the Long Long Rak cemetery people, which probably comprised rice combined with protein from freshwater fish among other food items. The combination of proteomics and stable isotope analysis provides a complementary strategy for assessing the demography, diet, lifestyle, and possible diseases experienced by ancient populations.

Cave drip water solutes in south-eastern Australia: Constraining sources, sinks and processes.

Constraining sources and site-specific processes of trace elements in speleothem geochemical records is key to an informed interpretation. This paper examines a 10-year data set of drip water solutes from Harrie Wood Cave, south-eastern Australia, and identifies the processes that control their response to El Niño-Southern Oscillation events which varies the site water balance. The contributions of aerosol and bedrock end-members are quantified via hydrochemical mass balance modelling. The parent bedrock is the main source for the drip water solutes: Mg, Sr, K and trace elements (Ba, Al, V, Cr, Mn, Ni, Co, Cu, Pb and U), while atmospheric aerosol inputs also contribute significantly to drip water trace elements and Na, K and Zn. A laboratory investigation evaluating water-soluble fractions of metals in soil samples and soil enrichment factors provided a basis for understanding metal retainment and release to solution and transport from the soil zone. These results identified the role of the soil as a sink for: trace metals, Na and K, and a secondary source for Zn. Further, soil processes including: cation exchange, K-fixation, metal adsorption to colloids and the release of Zn associated with organic matter degradation further modify the chemical composition of the resultant drip waters. This research is significant for the south-eastern Australian region, as well as other sites in a karst setting with clay-rich soil. In particular these results reveal that the response of drip water chemistry to hydroclimatic forcing is non-linear, with the greatest response observed when the long-term gradient in the cumulative water balance reverses. This longer-term drip water monitoring dataset is significant because it provides the pivotal framework required to reliably identify suitable trace element proxies for interpretation in geochemical speleothem records on multi-decadal timescales.

Real-time detection of faecally contaminated drinking water with tryptophan-like fluorescence: defining threshold values.

We assess the use of fluorescent dissolved organic matter at excitation-emission wavelengths of 280nm and 360nm, termed tryptophan-like fluorescence (TLF), as an indicator of faecally contaminated drinking water. A significant logistic regression model was developed using TLF as a predictor of thermotolerant coliforms (TTCs) using data from groundwater- and surface water-derived drinking water sources in India, Malawi, South Africa and Zambia. A TLF threshold of 1.3ppb dissolved tryptophan was selected to classify TTC contamination. Validation of the TLF threshold indicated a false-negative error rate of 15% and a false-positive error rate of 18%. The threshold was unsuccessful at classifying contaminated sources containing <10 TTC cfu per 100mL, which we consider the current limit of detection. If only sources above this limit were classified, the false-negative error rate was very low at 4%. TLF intensity was very strongly correlated with TTC concentration (ρs=0.80). A higher threshold of 6.9ppb dissolved tryptophan is proposed to indicate heavily contaminated sources (≥100 TTC cfu per 100mL). Current commercially available fluorimeters are easy-to-use, suitable for use online and in remote environments, require neither reagents nor consumables, and crucially provide an instantaneous reading. TLF measurements are not appreciably impaired by common intereferents, such as pH, turbidity and temperature, within typical natural ranges. The technology is a viable option for the real-time screening of faecally contaminated drinking water globally.

The impact of fire on the geochemistry of speleothem-forming drip water in a sub-alpine cave.

Fire dramatically modifies the surface environment by combusting vegetation and changing soil properties. Despite this well-documented impact on the surface environment, there has been limited research into the impact of fire events on karst, caves and speleothems. Here we report the first experiment designed to investigate the short-term impacts of a prescribed fire on speleothem-forming cave drip water geochemistry. Before and after the fire, water was collected on a bi-monthly basis from 18 drip sites in South Glory Cave, New South Wales, Australia. Two months post-fire, there was an increase in B, Si, Na, Fe and Pb concentrations at all drip sites. We conclude that this response is most likely due to the transport of soluble ash-derived elements from the surface to the cave drip water below. A significant deviation in stable water isotopic composition from the local meteoric water line was also observed at six of the sites. We hypothesise that this was due to partial evaporation of soil water resulting in isotopic enrichment of drip waters. Our results demonstrate that even low-severity prescribed fires can have an impact on speleothem-forming cave drip water geochemistry. These findings are significant because firstly, fires need to be considered when interpreting past climate from speleothem δ18O isotope and trace element records, particularly in fire prone regions such as Australia, North America, south west Europe, Russia and China. Secondly, it supports research that demonstrates speleothems could be potential proxy records for past fires.

An optimized chronology for a stalagmite using seasonal trace element cycles from Shihua Cave, Beijing, North China.

Stalagmites play an important role in paleoclimatic reconstructions from seasonal to orbital time scales as 230Th-dating can provide an accurate absolute age. Additionally, seasonal trace element and optical layers can provide a precise age. We analyzed the seasonal variability of multiple trace elements on a stalagmite (XMG) in Shihua Cave, Beijing and compared them with results from laminae counting. The results show that (1) the polished section of the topmost part of XMG has obvious bi-optical layers under a conventional transmission microscope, however, laminae are not observed using this method in the rest of the sample, and (2) The variations of P/Ca, Sr/Ca, Ba/Ca, U/Ca and Mg/Ca show seasonal cycles throughout the sample. The PC1 in the Principal Component Analysis (PCA) of five trace elements represents the annual cycle. This stalagmite was deposited over 150 ± 1 years through PC1 peak counting. This result corresponds well with the annual layers and U-Th dating. Trace element cyclicity of PC1 can increase the accuracy of stalagmite dating, especially in the absence of obvious laminae and are a powerful method to identify seasonal changes in a strongly contrasting wet-dry monsoon climate region.