Tourists perceptions of Caribbean islands facing environmental threats before the COVID-19 health crisis: Holbox Island and Archipelago of Bocas del Toro.

Knowledge gaps exist in the socio-ecological systems of small touristic islands in Latin America. Understanding tourists' perceptions of their environmental knowledge can help plan actions to prevent natural capital loss necessary for local economies. Tourists' perceptions of a touristic hotspot, Holbox Island, were documented. Surveys demonstrated that tourists are aware of their environmental impacts and are interested in minimizing these. Results were compared with results on Bocas del Toro, Panama. Tourists' perceptions had similarities among sites driven by similarities in tourists' populations with a common geographic origin. Tourists lack site-specific knowledge to steer them towards environmentally conscious decisions in both regions. Findings suggest the need to promote local actions to gain tourists' understanding about their destination and support education programs on island conservation. Addressing these needs can help build resilience to overcome the adverse socio-environmental effects of tourism, environmental disasters, and health crises as COVID-19 on small islands.

The impact of COVID-19 nonpharmaceutical interventions on the future dynamics of endemic infections.

Nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) have been employed to reduce the transmission of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), yet these measures are already having similar effects on other directly transmitted, endemic diseases. Disruptions to the seasonal transmission patterns of these diseases may have consequences for the timing and severity of future outbreaks. Here we consider the implications of SARS-CoV-2 NPIs for two endemic infections circulating in the United States of America: respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) and seasonal influenza. Using laboratory surveillance data from 2020, we estimate that RSV transmission declined by at least 20% in the United States at the start of the NPI period. We simulate future trajectories of both RSV and influenza, using an epidemic model. As susceptibility increases over the NPI period, we find that substantial outbreaks of RSV may occur in future years, with peak outbreaks likely occurring in the winter of 2021-2022. Longer NPIs, in general, lead to larger future outbreaks although they may display complex interactions with baseline seasonality. Results for influenza broadly echo this picture, but are more uncertain; future outbreaks are likely dependent on the transmissibility and evolutionary dynamics of circulating strains.

Epidemic dynamics of respiratory syncytial virus in current and future climates.

A key question for infectious disease dynamics is the impact of the climate on future burden. Here, we evaluate the climate drivers of respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), an important determinant of disease in young children. We combine a dataset of county-level observations from the US with state-level observations from Mexico, spanning much of the global range of climatological conditions. Using a combination of nonlinear epidemic models with statistical techniques, we find consistent patterns of climate drivers at a continental scale explaining latitudinal differences in the dynamics and timing of local epidemics. Strikingly, estimated effects of precipitation and humidity on transmission mirror prior results for influenza. We couple our model with projections for future climate, to show that temperature-driven increases to humidity may lead to a northward shift in the dynamic patterns observed and that the likelihood of severe outbreaks of RSV hinges on projections for extreme rainfall.