Risk analysis of technological hazards: Simulation of scenarios and application of a local vulnerability index.

The potential impact of a technological accident can be assessed by risk estimation. Taking this into account, the latent or potential condition can be warned and mitigated. In this work we propose a methodology to estimate risk of technological hazards, focused on two components. The first one is the processing of meteorological databases to define the most probably and conservative scenario of study, and the second one, is the application of a local social vulnerability index to classify the population. In this case of study, the risk was estimated for a hypothetical release of liquefied ammonia in a meat-packing industry in the city of La Plata, Argentina. The method consists in integrating the simulated toxic threat zone with ALOHA software, and the layer of sociodemographic classification of the affected population. The results show the areas associated with higher risks of exposure to ammonia, which are worth being addressed for the prevention of disasters in the region. Advantageously, this systemic approach is methodologically flexible as it provides the possibility of being applied in various scenarios based on the available information of both, the exposed population and its meteorology. Furthermore, this methodology optimizes the processing of the input data and its calculation.

Moderate lead poisoning: trends in blood lead levels in unchelated children.

The appropriate clinical management of children who are moderately poisoned with lead (Pb) is under active investigation. To determine the pattern of change in blood Pb (BPb) levels in the absence of chelation therapy, we followed moderately Pb-poisoned children (initial blood Pb levels 1.21-2.66 mumol/l or 25-55 micrograms/dl) for 6 months with repeated BPb level measurements. Chelation therapy was not administered because all the children had negative lead mobilization tests indicating limited response to the chelating agent, calcium disodium edetate (CaNa2EDTA). Eligible children received the following interventions: notification of the health department to remediate lead hazards; reinforced educational efforts about the toxicity sources and treatment of Pb during 10 clinic and 3 home visits; and iron therapy for children with ferritin levels less than 16 micrograms/l. To quantify the lead paint hazards in the home, we combined a visual rating of the surfaces (intact to peeling) with an X-ray fluorescence (XRF) measurement of the lead content of the painted surface. The sum of these assessments is termed the home environmental score (HES). Data were analyzed from 79 children. BPb levels declined by 27%, on average, over 6 months. HES was correlated with BPb at enrollment, but neither the initial nor later HES measurements predicted BPb at other time points. The HES was highest at enrollment and declined by 50% and 75% at the second and third home visits, respectively. However, only a minority of the children (20%) achieved an HES of 0, indicating no lead paint hazards at home. Despite some ongoing Pb exposure, a parallel fall in BPb levels was observed in subgroups of children with either initially low or high HES (above or below the median HES of 37). Iron status did not account for the change in BPb levels. These data provide evidence that our measure, the HES, is quantifiably related to BPb levels in children, that this correlation is significant only prior to intervention; and that BPb levels decline in children who are moderately poisoned with Pb after they are enrolled in a comprehensive intervention program, even in the absence of chelation therapy and in the presence of ongoing lead paint exposure and Fe deficiency.

Bone lead content assessed by L-line x-ray fluorescence in lead-exposed and non-lead-exposed suburban populations in the United States.

Measurements of lead (Pb) in bone reflect cumulative Pb exposure, whereas blood Pb levels are indices of absorption during the previous 21-30 days. This study was undertaken to estimate bone Pb concentrations by L-line x-ray fluorescence (LXRF) in a United States suburban population which was exposed to unusually high levels of Pb in emissions from an adjacent factory during 1963-1981, compared with concentrations similarly estimated in a matched suburban community without unusual Pb exposure. The mean bone Pb value in 269 residents of the highly exposed suburb (15 ppm) was 3-fold greater than that of the reference suburb (5 ppm). LXRF estimates of bone Pb identified those individuals at risk for adverse effects of Pb, whereas blood Pb levels were uninformative. Average LXRF-estimated bone Pb concentrations in residents of the unusually exposed suburb approximated estimated values in workers at Pb-processing factories.