Does socioeconomic and environmental burden affect vulnerability to extreme air pollution and heat? A case-crossover study of mortality in California.

BACKGROUND: Extreme heat and air pollution is associated with increased mortality. Recent evidence suggests the combined effects of both is greater than the effects of each individual exposure. Low neighborhood socioeconomic status ("socioeconomic burden") has also been associated with increased exposure and vulnerability to both heat and air pollution. We investigated if neighborhood socioeconomic burden or the combination of socioeconomic and environmental exposures ("socioenvironmental burden") modified the effect of combined exposure to extreme heat and particulate air pollution on mortality in California. METHODS: We used a time-stratified case-crossover design to assess the impact of daily exposure to extreme particulate matter <2.5 µm (PM2.5) and heat on cardiovascular, respiratory, and all-cause mortality in California 2014-2019. Daily average PM2.5 and maximum temperatures based on decedent's residential census tract were dichotomized as extreme or not. Census tract-level socioenvironmental and socioeconomic burden was assessed with the CalEnviroScreen (CES) score and a social deprivation index (SDI), and individual educational attainment was derived from death certificates. Conditional logistic regression was used to estimate associations of heat and PM2.5 with mortality with a product term used to evaluate effect measure modification. RESULTS: During the study period 1,514,292 all-cause deaths could be assigned residential exposures. Extreme heat and air pollution alone and combined were associated with increased mortality, matching prior reports. Decedents in census tracts with higher socioenvironmental and socioeconomic burden experienced more days with extreme PM2.5 exposure. However, we found no consistent effect measure modification by CES or SDI on combined or separate extreme heat and PM2.5 exposure on odds of total, cardiovascular or respiratory mortality. No effect measure modification was observed for individual education attainment. CONCLUSION: We did not find evidence that neighborhood socioenvironmental- or socioeconomic burden significantly influenced the individual or combined impact of extreme exposures to heat and PM2.5 on mortality in California. IMPACT: We investigated the effect measure modification by socioeconomic and socioenvironmental of the co-occurrence of heat and PM2.5, which adds support to the limited previous literature on effect measure modification by socioeconomic and socioenvironmental burden of heat alone and PM2.5 alone. We found no consistent effect measure modification by neighborhood socioenvironmental and socioeconomic burden or individual level SES of the mortality association with extreme heat and PM2.5 co-exposure. However, we did find increased number of days with extreme PM2.5 exposure in neighborhoods with high socioenvironmental and socioeconomic burden. We evaluated multiple area-level and an individual-level SES and socioenvironmental burden metrics, each estimating socioenvironmental factors differently, making our conclusion more robust.

Ambient temperature and air pollution associations with suicide and homicide mortality in California: A statewide case-crossover study.

BACKGROUND: Higher ambient temperature and air pollution may contribute to increased risk of behaviors harmful to oneself or to others; however, quantitative evidence is limited. We examined the relationship of deaths due to suicide and homicide with temperature and air pollution in California-a state prone to high levels of both exposures. METHOD: California death certificates from 2014 to 2019 were used to identify deaths due to suicide and homicide. Residential data for decedents were used to assign exposure to daily temperature (maximum[Tmax], minimum[Tmin]) and daily average air pollution concentrations (particulate matter <10 µm[PM10] and < 2.5 µm[PM2.5], nitrogen dioxide[NO2], ozone[O3]). Tmin served as a surrogate for nighttime temperature. A time-stratified case-crossover study design using conditional logistic regression was used to assess the effects of daily exposure to temperature and air pollutants on suicide and homicide mortality, adjusting for relative humidity. Effect modification by sex and age was assessed. RESULTS: We observed 24,387 deaths due to suicide and 10,767 deaths due to homicide. We found a monotonic temperature association for both outcomes. A 5 °C increase in Tmax at lag-2 and Tmin at lag-0 was associated with 3.1 % (95 % confidence interval [CI]: 1.1 %-5.2 %) and 3.8 % (95%CI: 0.9 %-6.8 %) increased odds of death due to suicide, respectively. The increased odds of homicide mortality per 5 °C increase in Tmax at lag-0 and Tmin at lag-1 were 4.9 % (95%CI: 1.6 %-8.1 %) and 6.2 % (95%CI: 1.6 %-11.0 %), respectively. No air pollutant associations were statistically significant. Temperature associations were robust after adjustment for PM2.5. Some temperature effects were larger among women for suicide and men for homicide mortality, and among those over age 65 years for both outcomes. CONCLUSION: Risk of suicide and homicide mortality increases with increasing daily ambient temperatures. Findings have public health relevance given anticipated increases in temperatures due to global climate change.

The Effects of Coexposure to Extremes of Heat and Particulate Air Pollution on Mortality in California: Implications for Climate Change.

Rationale: Extremes of heat and particulate air pollution threaten human health and are becoming more frequent because of climate change. Understanding the health impacts of coexposure to extreme heat and air pollution is urgent. Objectives: To estimate the association of acute coexposure to extreme heat and ambient fine particulate matter (PM2.5) with all-cause, cardiovascular, and respiratory mortality in California from 2014 to 2019. Methods: We used a case-crossover study design with time-stratified matching using conditional logistic regression to estimate mortality associations with acute coexposures to extreme heat and PM2.5. For each case day (date of death) and its control days, daily average PM2.5 and maximum and minimum temperatures were assigned (0- to 3-day lag) on the basis of the decedent's residence census tract. Measurements and Main Results: All-cause mortality risk increased 6.1% (95% confidence interval [CI], 4.1-8.1) on extreme maximum temperature-only days and 5.0% (95% CI, 3.0-8.0) on extreme PM2.5-only days, compared with nonextreme days. Risk increased by 21.0% (95% CI, 6.6-37.3) on days with exposure to both extreme maximum temperature and PM2.5. Increased risk of cardiovascular and respiratory mortality on extreme coexposure days was 29.9% (95% CI, 3.3-63.3) and 38.0% (95% CI, -12.5 to 117.7), respectively, and were more than the sum of individual effects of extreme temperature and PM2.5 only. A similar pattern was observed for coexposure to extreme PM2.5 and minimum temperature. Effect estimates were larger over age 75 years. Conclusions: Short-term exposure to extreme heat and air pollution alone were individually associated with increased risk of mortality, but their coexposure had larger effects beyond the sum of their individual effects.

Investigating the Urban Air Quality Effects of Cool Walls and Cool Roofs in Southern California.

Solar reflective cool roofs and walls can be used to mitigate the urban heat island effect. While many past studies have investigated the climate impacts of adopting cool surfaces, few studies have investigated their effects on air pollution, especially on particulate matter (PM). This research for the first time investigates the influence of widespread deployment of cool walls on urban air pollutant concentrations, and systematically compares cool wall to cool roof effects. Simulations using a coupled meteorology-chemistry model (WRF-Chem) for a representative summertime period show that cool walls and roofs can reduce urban air temperatures, wind speeds, and planetary boundary heights in the Los Angeles Basin. Consequently, increasing wall (roof) albedo by 0.80, an upper bound scenario, leads to maximum daily 8-h average ozone concentration reductions of 0.35 (0.83) ppbv in Los Angeles County. However, cool walls (roofs) increase daily average PM2.5 concentrations by 0.62 (0.85) µg m-3. We investigate the competing processes driving changes in concentrations of speciated PM2.5. Increases in primary PM (elemental carbon and primary organic aerosols) concentrations can be attributed to reductions in ventilation of the Los Angeles Basin. Increases in concentrations of semivolatile species (e.g., nitrate) are mainly driven by increases in gas-to-particle conversion due to reduced atmospheric temperatures.

Systematic Comparison of the Influence of Cool Wall versus Cool Roof Adoption on Urban Climate in the Los Angeles Basin.

This study for the first time assesses the influence of employing solar reflective "cool" walls on the urban energy budget and summertime climate of the Los Angeles basin. We systematically compare the effects of cool walls to cool roofs, a heat mitigation strategy that has been widely studied and employed, using a consistent modeling framework (the Weather Research and Forecasting model). Adoption of cool walls leads to increases in urban grid cell albedo that peak in the early morning and late afternoon, when the ratio of solar radiation onto vertical walls versus horizontal surfaces is at a maximum. In Los Angeles County, daily average increase in grid cell reflected solar radiation from increasing wall albedo by 0.80 is 9.1 W m-2, 43% of that for increasing roof albedo. Cool walls reduce canyon air temperatures in Los Angeles by 0.43 K (daily average), with the peak reduction (0.64 K) occurring at 09:00 LST and a secondary peak (0.53 K) at 18:00 LST. Per 0.10 wall (roof) albedo increase, cool walls (roofs) can reduce summertime daily average canyon air temperature by 0.05 K (0.06 K). Results reported here can be used to inform policies on urban heat island mitigation or climate change adaptation.

Air-quality implications of widespread adoption of cool roofs on ozone and particulate matter in southern California.

The installation of roofing materials with increased solar reflectance (i.e., "cool roofs") can mitigate the urban heat island effect and reduce energy use. In addition, meteorological changes, along with the possibility of enhanced UV reflection from these surfaces, can have complex impacts on ozone and PM2.5 concentrations. We aim to evaluate the air-quality impacts of widespread cool-roof installations prescribed by California's Title 24 building energy efficiency standards within the heavily populated and polluted South Coast Air Basin (SoCAB). Development of a comprehensive rooftop area database and evaluation of spectral reflectance measurements of roofing materials allows us to project potential future changes in solar and UV reflectance for simulations using the Weather Research Forecast and Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) models. 2012 meteorological simulations indicate a decrease in daily maximum temperatures, daily maximum boundary layer heights, and ventilation coefficients throughout the SoCAB upon widespread installation of cool roofs. CMAQ simulations show significant increases in PM2.5 concentrations and policy-relevant design values. Changes in 8-h ozone concentrations depend on the potential change in UV reflectance, ranging from a decrease in population-weighted concentrations when UV reflectance remains unchanged to an increase when changes in UV reflectance are at an upper bound. However, 8-h policy-relevant ozone design values increase in all cases. Although the other benefits of cool roofs could outweigh small air-quality penalties, UV reflectance standards for cool roofing materials could mitigate these negative consequences. Results of this study motivate the careful consideration of future rooftop and pavement solar reflectance modification policies.

Importance of carbon dioxide physiological forcing to future climate change.

An increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO(2)) concentration influences climate both directly through its radiative effect (i.e., trapping longwave radiation) and indirectly through its physiological effect (i.e., reducing transpiration of land plants). Here we compare the climate response to radiative and physiological effects of increased CO(2) using the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) coupled Community Land and Community Atmosphere Model. In response to a doubling of CO(2), the radiative effect of CO(2) causes mean surface air temperature over land to increase by 2.86 +/- 0.02 K (+/- 1 standard error), whereas the physiological effects of CO(2) on land plants alone causes air temperature over land to increase by 0.42 +/- 0.02 K. Combined, these two effects cause a land surface warming of 3.33 +/- 0.03 K. The radiative effect of doubling CO(2) increases global runoff by 5.2 +/- 0.6%, primarily by increasing precipitation over the continents. The physiological effect increases runoff by 8.4 +/- 0.6%, primarily by diminishing evapotranspiration from the continents. Combined, these two effects cause a 14.9 +/- 0.7% increase in runoff. Relative humidity remains roughly constant in response to CO(2)-radiative forcing, whereas relative humidity over land decreases in response to CO(2)-physiological forcing as a result of reduced plant transpiration. Our study points to an emerging consensus that the physiological effects of increasing atmospheric CO(2) on land plants will increase global warming beyond that caused by the radiative effects of CO(2).

Measurement of black carbon and particle number emission factors from individual heavy-duty trucks.

Emission factors for black carbon (BC) and particle number (PN) were measured from 226 individual heavy-duty (HD) diesel trucks driving through a 1-km-long California highway tunnel in August 2006. Emission factors were based on concurrent increases in BC, PN, and CO2 concentrations (measured at 1 Hz) that corresponded to the passage of individual HD trucks. The distributions of BC and PN emission factors from individual HD trucks are skewed, meaning that a large fraction of pollution comes from a small fraction of the in-use vehicle fleet. The highest-emitting 10% of trucks were responsible for approximately 40% of total BC and PN emissions from all HD trucks. BC emissions were log-normally distributed with a mean emission factor of 1.7 g kg(-1) and maximum values of approximately 10 g kg(-1). Corresponding values for PN emission factors were 4.7 x 10(15) and 4 x 10(16) # kg(-1). There was minimal overlap among high-emitters of these two pollutants: only 1 of the 226 HD trucks measured was found to be among the highest 10% for both BC and PN. Monte Carlo resampling of the distribution of BC emission factors observed in this study revealed that uncertainties (1sigma) in extrapolating from a random sample of n HD trucks to a population mean emission factor ranged from +/- 43% for n=10 to +/- 8% for n=300, illustrating the importance of vehicle sample sizes in emissions studies. When n=10, sample means are more likely to be biased due to misrepresentation of high-emitters. As vehicles become cleaner on average in the future, skewness of the emissions distributions will increase, and thus sample sizes needed to extrapolate reliably from a subset of vehicles to the entire in-use vehicle fleet will become more of a challenge.

Carbonyl and nitrogen dioxide emissions from gasoline- and diesel-powered motor vehicles.

Carbonyls can be toxic and highly reactive in the atmosphere. To quantify trends in carbonyl emissions from light-duty (LD) vehicles, measurements were made in a San Francisco Bay area highwaytunnel bore containing essentially all LD vehicles during the summers of 1999, 2001, and 2006. The LD vehicle emission factor for formaldehyde, the most abundant carbonyl, did not change between 1999 and 2001, then decreased by 61 +/- 7% between 2001 and 2006. This reduction was due to fleet turnover and the removal of MTBE from gasoline. Acetaldehyde emissions decreased by 19 +/- 2% between 1999 and 2001 and by the same amount between 2001 and 2006. Absent the increased use of ethanol in gasoline after 2003, acetaldehyde emissions would have further decreased by 2006. Carbonyl emission factors for medium- (MD) and heavy-duty (HD) diesel trucks were measured in 2006 in a separate mixed-traffic bore of the tunnel. Emission factors for diesel trucks were higher than those for LD vehicles for all reported carbonyls. Diesel engine exhaust dominates over gasoline engines as a direct source of carbonyl emissions in California. Carbonyl concentrations were also measured in liquid-gasoline samples and were found to be low (< 20 ppm). The gasoline brands that contained ethanol showed higher concentrations of acetaldehyde in unburned fuel versus gasoline that was formulated without ethanol. Measurements of NO2 showed a yearly rate of decrease for LD vehicle emissions similar to that of total NOx in this study. The observed NO2/NOx ratio was 1.2 +/- 0.3% and 3.7 +/- 0.3% for LD vehicles and diesel trucks, respectively.

Bifurcation model for characterization of pulmonary architecture.

A flexible mathematical model of an asymmetric bronchial airway bifurcation is presented. The bifurcation structure is automatically determined after the user specifies geometric parameters: radius of parent airway, radii of daughter airways, radii of curvature of the daughter branch toroids, bifurcation angles, and radius of curvature of carina ridge. Detailed shape in the region where the three airways merge is defined by several explicit functions and can be changed with ease in accordance with observed lung structure. These functions take into account the blunt shape of the carina, the smooth transition from the outer transition zone to the inner one, and the shift in carinal ridge starting position as a function of bifurcation asymmetry. We validated the bifurcation model by comparing it to a computed tomography image of a rat lung cast. Three-dimensional representations of the bifurcation geometry can be viewed at http://mae.ucdavis.edu/wexler/lungs/bifurc.htm.