Risk factors for delirium among hospitalized patients in Zambia.

OBJECTIVE: To identify risk factors for delirium among hospitalized patients in Zambia. METHODS: We conducted a prospective cohort study at the University Teaching Hospital in Lusaka, Zambia, from October 2017 to April 2018. We report associations of exposures including sociodemographic and clinical factors with delirium over the first three days of hospital admission, assessed using a modified Brief Confusion Assessment Method (bCAM). FINDINGS: 749 patients were included for analysis (mean age, 42.9 years; 64.8% men; 47.3% with HIV). In individual regression analyses of potential delirium risk factors adjusted for age, sex and education, factors significantly associated with delirium included being divorced/widowed (OR 1.64, 95% CI 1.09-2.47), lowest tercile income (OR 1.58, 95% CI 1.04-2.40), informal employment (OR 1.97, 95% CI 1.25-3.15), untreated HIV infection (OR 2.18, 95% CI 1.21-4.06), unknown HIV status (OR 2.90, 95% CI 1.47-6.16), history of stroke (OR 2.70, 95% CI 1.15-7.19), depression/anxiety (OR 1.52, 95% CI 1.08-2.14), alcohol overuse (OR 1.96, 95% CI 1.39-2.79), sedatives ordered on admission (OR 3.77, 95% CI 1.70-9.54), severity of illness (OR 2.00, 95% CI 1.82-2.22), neurological (OR 7.66, 95% CI 4.90-12.24) and pulmonary-system admission diagnoses (OR 1.91, 95% CI 1.29-2.85), and sepsis (OR 2.44, 95% CI 1.51-4.08). After combining significant risk factors into a multivariable regression analysis, severity of illness, history of stroke, and being divorced/widowed remained predictive of delirium (p<0.05). CONCLUSION: Among hospitalized adults at a national referral hospital in Zambia, severity of illness, history of stroke, and being divorced/widowed were independently predictive of delirium. Extension of this work will inform future efforts to prevent, detect, and manage delirium in low- and middle-income countries.

Delirium as a predictor of mortality and disability among hospitalized patients in Zambia.

OBJECTIVE: To study the epidemiology and outcomes of delirium among hospitalized patients in Zambia. METHODS: We conducted a prospective cohort study at the University Teaching Hospital in Lusaka, Zambia, from October 2017 to April 2018. The primary exposure was delirium duration over the initial 3 days of hospitalization, assessed daily using the Brief Confusion Assessment Method. The primary outcome was 6-month mortality. Secondary outcomes included 6-month disability, evaluated using the World Health Organization Disability Assessment Schedule 2.0. FINDINGS: 711 adults were included (median age, 39 years; 461 men; 459 medical, 252 surgical; 323 with HIV). Delirium prevalence was 48.5% (95% CI, 44.8%-52.3%). 6-month mortality was higher for delirious participants (44.6% [39.3%-50.1%]) versus non-delirious participants (20.0% [15.4%-25.2%]; P < .001). After adjusting for covariates, delirium duration independently predicted 6-month mortality and disability with a significant dose-response association between number of days with delirium and odds of worse clinical outcome. Compared to no delirium, presence of 1, 2 or 3 days of delirium resulted in odds ratios for 6-month mortality of 1.43 (95% CI, 0.73-2.80), 2.20 (1.07-4.51), and 3.92 (2.24-6.87), respectively (P < .001). Odds of 6-month disability were 1.20 (0.70-2.05), 1.73 (0.95-3.17), and 2.80 (1.78-4.43), respectively (P < .001). CONCLUSION: Among hospitalized medical and surgical patients in Zambia, delirium prevalence was high and delirium duration independently predicted mortality and disability at 6 months. This work lays the foundation for prevention, detection, and management of delirium in low-income countries. Long-term follow up of outcomes of critical illness in resource-limited settings appears feasible using the WHO Disability Assessment Schedule.