A mathematical model to assess the effectiveness of test-trace-isolate-and-quarantine under limited capacities.

Diagnostic testing followed by isolation of identified cases with subsequent tracing and quarantine of close contacts-often referred to as test-trace-isolate-and-quarantine (TTIQ) strategy-is one of the cornerstone measures of infectious disease control. The COVID-19 pandemic has highlighted that an appropriate response to outbreaks of infectious diseases requires a firm understanding of the effectiveness of such containment strategies. To this end, mathematical models provide a promising tool. In this work, we present a delay differential equation model of TTIQ interventions for infectious disease control. Our model incorporates the assumption of limited TTIQ capacities, providing insights into the reduced effectiveness of testing and tracing in high prevalence scenarios. In addition, we account for potential transmission during the early phase of an infection, including presymptomatic transmission, which may be particularly adverse to a TTIQ based control. Our numerical experiments inspired by the early spread of COVID-19 in Germany demonstrate the effectiveness of TTIQ in a scenario where immunity within the population is low and pharmaceutical interventions are absent, which is representative of a typical situation during the (re-)emergence of infectious diseases for which therapeutic drugs or vaccines are not yet available. Stability and sensitivity analyses reveal both disease-dependent and disease-independent factors that impede or enhance the success of TTIQ. Studying the diminishing impact of TTIQ along simulations of an epidemic wave, we highlight consequences for intervention strategies.

Predictive performance of multi-model ensemble forecasts of COVID-19 across European nations.

Background: Short-term forecasts of infectious disease burden can contribute to situational awareness and aid capacity planning. Based on best practice in other fields and recent insights in infectious disease epidemiology, one can maximise the predictive performance of such forecasts if multiple models are combined into an ensemble. Here, we report on the performance of ensembles in predicting COVID-19 cases and deaths across Europe between 08 March 2021 and 07 March 2022. Methods: We used open-source tools to develop a public European COVID-19 Forecast Hub. We invited groups globally to contribute weekly forecasts for COVID-19 cases and deaths reported by a standardised source for 32 countries over the next 1-4 weeks. Teams submitted forecasts from March 2021 using standardised quantiles of the predictive distribution. Each week we created an ensemble forecast, where each predictive quantile was calculated as the equally-weighted average (initially the mean and then from 26th July the median) of all individual models' predictive quantiles. We measured the performance of each model using the relative Weighted Interval Score (WIS), comparing models' forecast accuracy relative to all other models. We retrospectively explored alternative methods for ensemble forecasts, including weighted averages based on models' past predictive performance. Results: Over 52 weeks, we collected forecasts from 48 unique models. We evaluated 29 models' forecast scores in comparison to the ensemble model. We found a weekly ensemble had a consistently strong performance across countries over time. Across all horizons and locations, the ensemble performed better on relative WIS than 83% of participating models' forecasts of incident cases (with a total N=886 predictions from 23 unique models), and 91% of participating models' forecasts of deaths (N=763 predictions from 20 models). Across a 1-4 week time horizon, ensemble performance declined with longer forecast periods when forecasting cases, but remained stable over 4 weeks for incident death forecasts. In every forecast across 32 countries, the ensemble outperformed most contributing models when forecasting either cases or deaths, frequently outperforming all of its individual component models. Among several choices of ensemble methods we found that the most influential and best choice was to use a median average of models instead of using the mean, regardless of methods of weighting component forecast models. Conclusions: Our results support the use of combining forecasts from individual models into an ensemble in order to improve predictive performance across epidemiological targets and populations during infectious disease epidemics. Our findings further suggest that median ensemble methods yield better predictive performance more than ones based on means. Our findings also highlight that forecast consumers should place more weight on incident death forecasts than incident case forecasts at forecast horizons greater than 2 weeks. Funding: AA, BH, BL, LWa, MMa, PP, SV funded by National Institutes of Health (NIH) Grant 1R01GM109718, NSF BIG DATA Grant IIS-1633028, NSF Grant No.: OAC-1916805, NSF Expeditions in Computing Grant CCF-1918656, CCF-1917819, NSF RAPID CNS-2028004, NSF RAPID OAC-2027541, US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention 75D30119C05935, a grant from Google, University of Virginia Strategic Investment Fund award number SIF160, Defense Threat Reduction Agency (DTRA) under Contract No. HDTRA1-19-D-0007, and respectively Virginia Dept of Health Grant VDH-21-501-0141, VDH-21-501-0143, VDH-21-501-0147, VDH-21-501-0145, VDH-21-501-0146, VDH-21-501-0142, VDH-21-501-0148. AF, AMa, GL funded by SMIGE - Modelli statistici inferenziali per governare l'epidemia, FISR 2020-Covid-19 I Fase, FISR2020IP-00156, Codice Progetto: PRJ-0695. AM, BK, FD, FR, JK, JN, JZ, KN, MG, MR, MS, RB funded by Ministry of Science and Higher Education of Poland with grant 28/WFSN/2021 to the University of Warsaw. BRe, CPe, JLAz funded by Ministerio de Sanidad/ISCIII. BT, PG funded by PERISCOPE European H2020 project, contract number 101016233. CP, DL, EA, MC, SA funded by European Commission - Directorate-General for Communications Networks, Content and Technology through the contract LC-01485746, and Ministerio de Ciencia, Innovacion y Universidades and FEDER, with the project PGC2018-095456-B-I00. DE., MGu funded by Spanish Ministry of Health / REACT-UE (FEDER). DO, GF, IMi, LC funded by Laboratory Directed Research and Development program of Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) under project number 20200700ER. DS, ELR, GG, NGR, NW, YW funded by National Institutes of General Medical Sciences (R35GM119582; the content is solely the responsibility of the authors and does not necessarily represent the official views of NIGMS or the National Institutes of Health). FB, FP funded by InPresa, Lombardy Region, Italy. HG, KS funded by European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control. IV funded by Agencia de Qualitat i Avaluacio Sanitaries de Catalunya (AQuAS) through contract 2021-021OE. JDe, SMo, VP funded by Netzwerk Universitatsmedizin (NUM) project egePan (01KX2021). JPB, SH, TH funded by Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF; grant 05M18SIA). KH, MSc, YKh funded by Project SaxoCOV, funded by the German Free State of Saxony. Presentation of data, model results and simulations also funded by the NFDI4Health Task Force COVID-19 (https://www.nfdi4health.de/task-force-covid-19-2) within the framework of a DFG-project (LO-342/17-1). LP, VE funded by Mathematical and Statistical modelling project (MUNI/A/1615/2020), Online platform for real-time monitoring, analysis and management of epidemic situations (MUNI/11/02202001/2020); VE also supported by RECETOX research infrastructure (Ministry of Education, Youth and Sports of the Czech Republic: LM2018121), the CETOCOEN EXCELLENCE (CZ.02.1.01/0.0/0.0/17-043/0009632), RECETOX RI project (CZ.02.1.01/0.0/0.0/16-013/0001761). NIB funded by Health Protection Research Unit (grant code NIHR200908). SAb, SF funded by Wellcome Trust (210758/Z/18/Z).

Compliance with NPIs and possible deleterious effects on mitigation of an epidemic outbreak.

The first attempt to control and mitigate an epidemic outbreak caused by a previously unknown virus occurs primarily via non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs). In case of the SARS-CoV-2 virus, which since the early days of 2020 caused the COVID-19 pandemic, NPIs aimed at reducing transmission-enabling contacts between individuals. The effectiveness of contact reduction measures directly correlates with the number of individuals adhering to such measures. Here, we illustrate by means of a very simple compartmental model how partial noncompliance with NPIs can prevent these from stopping the spread of an epidemic.

Fleeing lockdown and its impact on the size of epidemic outbreaks in the source and target regions - a COVID-19 lesson.

The COVID-19 pandemic forced authorities worldwide to implement moderate to severe restrictions in order to slow down or suppress the spread of the disease. It has been observed in several countries that a significant number of people fled a city or a region just before strict lockdown measures were implemented. This behavior carries the risk of seeding a large number of infections all at once in regions with otherwise small number of cases. In this work, we investigate the effect of fleeing on the size of an epidemic outbreak in the region under lockdown, and also in the region of destination. We propose a mathematical model that is suitable to describe the spread of an infectious disease over multiple geographic regions. Our approach is flexible to characterize the transmission of different viruses. As an example, we consider the COVID-19 outbreak in Italy. Projection of different scenarios shows that (i) timely and stricter intervention could have significantly lowered the number of cumulative cases in Italy, and (ii) fleeing at the time of lockdown possibly played a minor role in the spread of the disease in the country.

STAT3 governs the HIF-1α response in IL-15 primed human NK cells.

Natural killer (NK) cells mediate innate host defense against microbial infection and cancer. Hypoxia and low glucose are characteristic for these tissue lesions but do not affect early interferon (IFN) γ and CC chemokine release by interleukin 15 (IL-15) primed human NK cells in vitro. Hypoxia inducible factor 1α (HIF-1α) mediates cellular adaption to hypoxia. Its production is supported by mechanistic target of rapamycin complex 1 (mTORC1) and signal transducer and activator of transcription 3 (STAT3). We used chemical inhibition to probe the importance of mTORC1 and STAT3 for the hypoxia response and of STAT3 for the cytokine response in isolated and IL-15 primed human NK cells. Cellular responses were assayed by magnetic bead array, RT-PCR, western blotting, flow cytometry, and metabolic flux analysis. STAT3 but not mTORC1 activation was essential for HIF-1α accumulation, glycolysis, and oxygen consumption. In both primed normoxic and hypoxic NK cells, STAT3 inhibition reduced the secretion of CCL3, CCL4 and CCL5, and it interfered with IL-12/IL-18 stimulated IFNγ production, but it did not affect cytotoxic granule degranulation up on target cell contact. We conclude that IL-15 priming promotes the HIF-1α dependent hypoxia response and the early cytokine response in NK cells predominantly through STAT3 signaling.

Germany's next shutdown-Possible scenarios and outcomes.

With the rapid increase of reported COVID-19 cases, German policymakers announced a 4-week "shutdown light" starting on November 2, 2020. Applying mathematical models, possible scenarios for the evolution of the outbreak in Germany are simulated. The results indicate that independent of the effectiveness of the current restrictive measures they might not be sufficient to mitigate the outbreak. Repeated shutdown periods or permanently applied measures over the winter could be successful alternatives.

Modeling the spread of COVID-19 in Germany: Early assessment and possible scenarios.

The novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2), identified in China at the end of December 2019 and causing the disease COVID-19, has meanwhile led to outbreaks all over the globe with about 2.2 million confirmed cases and more than 150,000 deaths as of April 17, 2020. In this work, mathematical models are used to reproduce data of the early evolution of the COVID-19 outbreak in Germany, taking into account the effect of actual and hypothetical non-pharmaceutical interventions. Systems of differential equations of SEIR type are extended to account for undetected infections, stages of infection, and age groups. The models are calibrated on data until April 5. Data from April 6 to 14 are used for model validation. We simulate different possible strategies for the mitigation of the current outbreak, slowing down the spread of the virus and thus reducing the peak in daily diagnosed cases, the demand for hospitalization or intensive care units admissions, and eventually the number of fatalities. Our results suggest that a partial (and gradual) lifting of introduced control measures could soon be possible if accompanied by further increased testing activity, strict isolation of detected cases, and reduced contact to risk groups.

The significance of case detection ratios for predictions on the outcome of an epidemic - a message from mathematical modelers.

In attempting to predict the further course of the novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic caused by SARS-CoV-2, mathematical models of different types are frequently employed and calibrated to reported case numbers. Among the major challenges in interpreting these data is the uncertainty about the amount of undetected infections, or conversely: the detection ratio. As a result, some models make assumptions about the percentage of detected cases among total infections while others completely neglect undetected cases. Here, we illustrate how model projections about case and fatality numbers vary significantly under varying assumptions on the detection ratio. Uncertainties in model predictions can be significantly reduced by representative testing, both for antibodies and active virus RNA, to uncover past and current infections that have gone undetected thus far.

Deterministic approaches for head lice infestations and treatments.

Pediculus humanus capitis are human ectoparasites which cause infestations, mostly in children, worldwide. Understanding the life cycle of head lice is an important step in knowing how to treat lice infestations, as the parasite behavior depends considerably on its age and gender. In this work we propose a mathematical model for head lice population dynamics in hosts who could be or not quarantined and treated. Considering a lice population structured by age and gender we formulate the model as a system of hyperbolic PDEs, which can be reduced to compartmental systems of delay or ordinary differential equations. Besides studying fundamental properties of the model, such as existence, uniqueness and nonnegativity of solutions, we show the existence of (in certain cases multiple) equilibria at which the infestation persists on the host's head. Aiming to assess the performance of treatments against head lice infestations, by mean of computer experiments and numerical simulations we investigate four possible treatment strategies. Our main results can be summarized as follows: (i) early detection is crucial for quick and efficient eradication of lice infestations; (ii) dimeticone-based products applied every 4 days effectively remove lice in at most three applications even in case of severe infestations and (iii) minimization of the reinfection risk, e.g. by mean of synchronized treatments in families/classrooms is recommended.

Interleukin-15 Signaling in HIF-1α Regulation in Natural Killer Cells, Insights Through Mathematical Models.

Natural killer (NK) cells belong to the first line of host defense against infection and cancer. Cytokines, including interleukin-15 (IL-15), critically regulate NK cell activity, resulting in recognition and direct killing of transformed and infected target cells. NK cells have to adapt and respond in inflamed and often hypoxic areas. Cellular stabilization and accumulation of the transcription factor hypoxia-inducible factor-1α (HIF-1α) is a key mechanism of the cellular hypoxia response. At the same time, HIF-1α plays a critical role in both innate and adaptive immunity. While the HIF-1α hydroxylation and degradation pathway has been recently described with the help of mathematical methods, less is known concerning the mechanistic mathematical description of processes regulating the levels of HIF-1α mRNA and protein. In this work we combine mathematical modeling with experimental laboratory analysis and examine the dynamic relationship between HIF-1α mRNA, HIF-1α protein, and IL-15-mediated upstream signaling events in NK cells from human blood. We propose a system of non-linear ordinary differential equations with positive and negative feedback loops for describing the complex interplay of HIF-1α regulators. The experimental design is optimized with the help of mathematical methods, and numerical optimization techniques yield reliable parameter estimates. The mathematical model allows for the investigation and prediction of HIF-1α stabilization under different inflammatory conditions and provides a better understanding of mechanisms mediating cellular enrichment of HIF-1α. Thanks to the combination of in vitro experimental data and in silico predictions we identified the mammalian target of rapamycin (mTOR), the nuclear factor-κB (NF-κB), and the signal transducer and activator of transcription 3 (STAT3) as central regulators of HIF-1α accumulation. We hypothesize that the regulatory pathway proposed here for NK cells can be extended to other types of immune cells. Understanding the molecular mechanisms involved in the dynamic regulation of the HIF-1α pathway in immune cells is of central importance to the immune cell function and could be a promising strategy in the design of treatments for human inflammatory diseases and cancer.

Transmission Dynamics and Final Epidemic Size of Ebola Virus Disease Outbreaks with Varying Interventions.

The 2014 Ebola Virus Disease (EVD) outbreak in West Africa was the largest and longest ever reported since the first identification of this disease. We propose a compartmental model for EVD dynamics, including virus transmission in the community, at hospitals, and at funerals. Using time-dependent parameters, we incorporate the increasing intensity of intervention efforts. Fitting the system to the early phase of the 2014 West Africa Ebola outbreak, we estimate the basic reproduction number as 1.44. We derive a final size relation which allows us to forecast the total number of cases during the outbreak when effective interventions are in place. Our model predictions show that, as long as cases are reported in any country, intervention strategies cannot be dismissed. Since the main driver in the current slowdown of the epidemic is not the depletion of susceptibles, future waves of infection might be possible, if control measures or population behavior are relaxed.

Analysis of N-acylhomoserine lactone dynamics in continuous cultures of Pseudomonas putida IsoF by use of ELISA and UHPLC/qTOF-MS-derived measurements and mathematical models.

In this interdisciplinary approach, the dynamics of production and degradation of the quorum sensing signal 3-oxo-decanoylhomoserine lactone were studied for continuous cultures of Pseudomonas putida IsoF. The signal concentrations were quantified over time by use of monoclonal antibodies and ELISA. The results were verified by use of ultra-high-performance liquid chromatography. By use of a mathematical model we derived quantitative values for non-induced and induced signal production rate per cell. It is worthy of note that we found rather constant values for different rates of dilution in the chemostat, and the values seemed close to those reported for batch cultures. Thus, the quorum-sensing system in P. putida IsoF is remarkably stable under different environmental conditions. In all chemostat experiments, the signal concentration decreased strongly after a peak, because emerging lactonase activity led to a lower concentration under steady-state conditions. This lactonase activity probably is quorum sensing-regulated. The potential ecological implication of such unique regulation is discussed.

Delay equations modeling the effects of phase-specific drugs and immunotherapy on proliferating tumor cells.

In this work we present a mathematical model for tumor growth based on the biology of the cell cycle. For an appropriate description of the effects of phase-specific drugs, it is necessary to look at the cell cycle and its phases. Our model reproduces the dynamics of three different tumor cell populations: quiescent cells, cells during the interphase and mitotic cells. Starting from a partial differential equations (PDEs) setting, a delay differential equations (DDE) model is derived for an easier and more realistic approach. Our equations also include interactions of tumor cells with immune system effectors. We investigate the model both from the analytical and the numerical point of view, give conditions for positivity of solutions and focus on the stability of the cancer-free equilibrium. Different immunotherapeutic strategies and their effects on the tumor growth are considered, as well.