Overrunning in clinical trials: some thoughts from a methodological review.

BACKGROUND: In sequential and adaptive trials, the delay that happens after the trial is stopped, by a predetermined stopping criterion, takes the name of overrunning. Overrunning consists of extra data, collected by investigators while awaiting results of the interim analysis (IA). The inclusion of such extra data in the analyses is scientifically appropriate and follows regulatory advice. Nevertheless, its effect from a broader perspective is unclear. METHODS: This article aims at clarifying the overall impact of including such overrunning data, providing first a revision, and then a comparison of the several approaches proposed in the literature for treating such data. A simulation study is performed based on two real-life examples. RESULTS: The paper shows that overrunning inclusion could seriously change the decision of an early conclusion of the study. It also shows that some of the methods proposed in the literature to include overrunning data are more conservative than others. CONCLUSION: The choice of a more or a less conservative method could be considered more appropriate depending on the endpoint type or the design type.

Effect of Probiotics on Oral Candidiasis: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.

Oral candidiasis (OC) is an increasing health problem due to the introduction of new drugs, population aging, and increasing prevalence of chronic illness. This study systematically reviews the effects of the oral intake of probiotics, prebiotics, and synbiotics on Candida spp. counts (colony-forming units (CFU)/mL) in oral and palatal samples. A literature search was conducted. Twelve studies, eight randomized clinical trials (RCTs), and four pre-post studies, resulted as eligible for the meta-analysis, which was performed through a Bayesian random-effects model. All studies analyzed probiotics, and none of them analyzed prebiotics or synbiotics. The treatments effects were measured in terms of odds ratio (OR) of OC (CFU/mL >102, 103, or 104). The meta-analytic OR was 0.71 (95% credibility interval (CrI): 0.37, 1.32), indicating a beneficial effect of treatment; the I2 index was 56.3%. Focusing only on RCTs, the OR was larger and more precise at 0.53 (95% CrI: 0.27, 0.93). The effect of treatment appeared to be larger on denture wearers. Our findings indicate that the intake of probiotics can have a beneficial effect on OC and that the effects could vary according to the patients' characteristics. Due to the presence of medium-high-risk studies, the results should be interpreted with caution.

Association of Pharmacological Treatments With Long-term Pain Control in Patients With Knee Osteoarthritis: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis.

Importance: Even though osteoarthritis is a chronic and progressive disease, pharmacological agents are mainly studied over short-term periods, resulting in unclear recommendations for long-term disease management. Objective: To search, review, and analyze long-term (≥12 months) outcomes (symptoms, joint structure) from randomized clinical trials (RCTs) of medications for knee osteoarthritis. Data Sources and Study Selection: The databases of MEDLINE, Scopus, EMBASE, Web of Science, and the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials were searched until June 30, 2018 (MEDLINE alerts through August 31, 2018) for RCTs of patients with knee osteoarthritis that had treatment and follow-up lasting 1 year or longer. Data Extraction and Synthesis: Data at baseline and at the longest available treatment and follow-up of 12 months' duration or longer (or the change from baseline) were extracted. A Bayesian random-effects network meta-analysis was performed. Main Outcomes and Measures: The primary outcome was the mean change from baseline in knee pain. Secondary outcomes were physical function and joint structure (the latter was measured radiologically as joint space narrowing). Standardized mean differences (SMDs) and mean differences with 95% credibility intervals (95% CrIs) were calculated. Findings were interpreted as associations when the 95% CrIs excluded the null value. Results: Forty-seven RCTs (22 037 patients; mean age range, mostly 55-70 years; and a higher mean proportion of women than men, around 70%) included the following medication categories: analgesics; antioxidants; bone-acting agents such as bisphosphonates and strontium ranelate; nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drugs; intra-articular injection medications such as hyaluronic acid and corticosteroids; symptomatic slow-acting drugs in osteoarthritis such as glucosamine and chondroitin sulfate; and putative disease-modifying agents such as cindunistat and sprifermin. Thirty-one interventions were studied for pain, 13 for physical function, and 16 for joint structure. Trial duration ranged from 1 to 4 years. Associations with decreases in pain were found for the nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drug celecoxib (SMD, -0.18 [95% CrI, -0.35 to -0.01]) and the symptomatic slow-acting drug in osteoarthritis glucosamine sulfate (SMD, -0.29 [95% CrI, -0.49 to -0.09]), but there was large uncertainty for all estimates vs placebo. The association with pain improvement remained significant only for glucosamine sulfate when data were analyzed using the mean difference on a scale from 0 to 100 and when trials at high risk of bias were excluded. Associations with improvement in joint space narrowing were found for glucosamine sulfate (SMD, -0.42 [95% CrI, -0.65 to -0.19]), chondroitin sulfate (SMD, -0.20 [95% CrI, -0.31 to -0.07]), and strontium ranelate (SMD, -0.20 [95% CrI, -0.36 to -0.05]). Conclusions and Relevance: In this systematic review and network meta-analysis of studies of patients with knee osteoarthritis and at least 12 months of follow-up, there was uncertainty around the estimates of effect size for change in pain for all comparisons with placebo. Larger RCTs are needed to resolve the uncertainty around efficacy of medications for knee osteoarthritis.

The role of diet and exercise and of glucosamine sulfate in the prevention of knee osteoarthritis: Further results from the PRevention of knee Osteoarthritis in Overweight Females (PROOF) study.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: The PRevention of knee Osteoarthritis in Overweight Females (PROOF) study (ISRCTN 42823086) described a trend for a decrease in the incidence of knee osteoarthritis (OA) by a tailored diet and exercise program (DEP) or by oral glucosamine sulfate in women at risk for the disease, using a composite clinical and/or radiological outcome. The aim of this updated post-hoc analysis was to re-assess the results according to more precise techniques and take advantage of the 2×2 factorial design. METHODS: A total of 407 overweight (BMI ≥ 27kg/m(2)) women of 50-60 years of age with no diagnosis of knee OA were randomized to: (1) no DEP + placebo (Control, N = 102), (2) DEP + placebo (DEP, N = 101), (3) glucosamine sulfate + no DEP (GS, N = 102), and (4) DEP + glucosamine sulfate (DEP + GS, N =102) and followed for 2.5 years, with standardized postero-anterior, semiflexed (MTP) view knee radiographs at baseline and end of the study. DEP consisted of a tailored low fat and/or low caloric diet and easy to implement physical activities. Glucosamine was given as oral crystalline glucosamine sulfate 1500mg once daily, double-blinded vs. placebo. Incident knee OA was defined as radiographic progression of ≥1mm minimum joint space narrowing (mJSN) in the medial tibiofemoral compartment, as previously assessed by the visual (manual) technique and by a new semi-automated method. Logistic regression analysis was used to calculate the odds ratio for the effect of the interventions. RESULTS: After 2.5 years, 11.8% of control subjects developed knee OA. This incidence was decreased with glucosamine sulfate, either alone or in combination with the DEP, but not by the DEP alone. Since there was no statistical interaction between treatments, the 2×2 factorial design allowed analysis of patients receiving glucosamine sulfate (N = 204) vs. those not receiving it (N = 203), similarly for those on the DEP (N = 203) or not (N = 204). Glucosamine sulfate significantly decreased the risk of developing knee OA: odds ratio (OR) = 0.41 (95% CI: 0.20-0.85, P = 0.02) by the manual JSN assessment method and OR = 0.42 (95% CI: 0.20-0.92, P = 0.03) by the semi-automated technique. Conversely, there was no decrease in risk with the DEP. CONCLUSIONS: Glucosamine sulfate decreased the risk of developing radiographic knee OA over 2.5 years in overweight, middle-aged women at risk, as determined by medial mJSN progression. Conversely a tailored diet and exercise program exerted no preventive effect, possibly because of the lower than expected effect on weight loss.