Unexpected Listronotus bonariensis (Coleoptera: Curculionidae) mortality in the presence of parasitoids.

Field enclosure and laboratory cage experiments designed to measure the impact of the parasitoid Microctonus hyperodae Loan on the Argentine stem weevil, Listronotus bonariensis (Kuschel) have shown that under high parasitoid pressure, there is significant weevil mortality without obvious parasitism. Parasitoid-exposed, but unparasitized portions of caged populations died at rates significantly higher than both the parasitized weevils from the same population and the unexposed controls. Unexpectedly, parasitized weevils had the lowest mortality rates (prior to larval parasitoid emergence). It was of ecological significance that this mortality effect was detected under field conditions using several years of empirically-collected population dynamics data. Under both field and laboratory conditions this mortality was found to occur within shorter time intervals than that required for full parasitoid larval development; thus it could not be attributed to the mortality that occurs after the emergence of prepupal parasitoids. The mechanism for this mortality remains undetermined, although it could possibly be linked to pseudoparasitism.

Modelling the regional dynamics and management of bovine tuberculosis in New Zealand cattle herds.

A previous model addressed the within-herd transmission of bovine Tb (Mycobacterium bovis) in New Zealand cattle herds. This complementary model considers transmission between herds, in an area of New Zealand's North Island (the Waikato) largely free from wildlife reservoirs. The model is used to account for the observed pattern of Tb breakdowns and to assess the likely impact of changes in management on the percentage of herds on movement control between 1988 and 1993 (an average of 0.76% in the Waikato region). It partitions the region into two sub-areas: one small, with significant infection from wildlife; the other much larger and lacking external sources of infection. The observed pattern of herd breakdowns (in different parts of the Waikato and in the region as a whole) could be accounted for in the model by infection from wildlife reservoirs in the southern sub-area (Waitomo) and infection due to movement of cattle from infected but undiagnosed herds to uninfected herds throughout the whole region. During the above period, the model suggests that about 0.8% of herds became infected each year, that most new infections (81% of the total) occurred between herds in the larger sub-area, and that about 13% of the total occurred through infection from wildlife in the smaller sub-area. The whole situation appears to be in a state of near-neutral balance (even without input of new infection), with removal through testing of new infections almost exactly balancing the rate of infection by between-herd movement. Therefore, if the external input is removed, the number of infected herds and of herds of movement control in the whole region declines so slowly that the decline is almost undetectable. Other management changes had a more dramatic effect--particularly, reducing the testing interval to a maximum of 1 year in the whole district. This also appeared to be a necessary condition for achieving < or = 0.2% herds on movement control within 10 years (whatever other strategies were employed). The greatest reduction in the percentage of herds on movement control came from yearly testing plus a 50% reduction in infection from wildlife. A further but smaller additional improvement was gained by reducing cattle movements throughout the region by 50%.

A simulation model for the spread of bovine tuberculosis within New Zealand cattle herds.

Bovine tuberculosis, caused by Mycobacterium bovis, presents a major problem to New Zealand agriculture because of the risk that it poses to export-market access. New Zealand research has focused largely on the epidemiology of the disease in wildlife reservoirs, and relatively little is known about the dynamics of the disease in cattle. This study, therefore, investigates bovine tuberculosis (Tb) dynamics within cattle herds, by construction and application of a simple simulation model of disease transmission. The model was designed firstly to estimate rates of disease transmission within herds, and secondly to identify likely consequences of changes in herd Tb-testing policies. Both deterministic and stochastic versions of the model were used to achieve these aims. The model suggests that within-herd Tb transmission does occur and contributes to the reactor rates observed under annual herd testing regimens. The mass-action disease transmission coefficient (proportion of susceptible animals infected per unit time per infectious animal, i.e. not per diseased animal or per reactor), appears to be in the order of 2.7 x 10(-5) per cow per day for a typical herd of around 200 animals, resulting in a contact rate (number of potentially infectious contacts made per infectious cow per day) of about 0.0073. These are average estimates for both beef and dairy herds. Model results suggest that improving the sensitivity of the test used to diagnose bovine Tb would improve control in areas where wildlife reservoirs are absent but have little effect where they are present. Reducing the time between tests of herds on Tb-induced movement control from the current 6 months to 2 or 3 months reduces the average time a herd spends on movement control and hence national Tb prevalence. In the presence of wildlife reservoirs of infection, both the total number of tests and total reactors per unit time increase, but the extent depends on the level of external infection. In all scenarios examined, involving thousands of model runs in total, infection was invariably absent from the modelled herd by the time it was considered clear of Tb based on testing results. This suggests that the caudal fold test is a realistic measure of herd Tb status and that Tb is unlikely to persist in herds under current testing practices in the absence of anergic cattle or an external source of infection. Specificity of the caudal-fold test as used in practice was estimated to be greater than 99%.

Modelling immunocontraception in disseminating systems.

Vectored immunocontraception is a novel technology and simple models are described to help predict whether, and how, it might work. That is, given that an effective immunocontraceptive agent can be produced, and given that it can be inserted into a microparasitic or macroparasitic infective vector, would the vector persist and reach a high prevalence in the host and, if so, would it sterilize a sufficient proportion of the host breeding population to significantly reduce its density? Both conditions are necessary for success. The first question is an epidemiological one, relating solely to disseminating systems and differing according to whether the vector itself is newly introduced or pre-existing. If it is newly introduced, the assumption is that it is present in some other geographical areas occupied by the same target species, or is found in closely-related species. If the vector already exists in the population, the issue is one of competition between the engineered and wild-type vectors. The second question is an ecological one, common to both non-disseminating and disseminating systems. Whatever level of sterilization the immunocontraception provides must translate into a significant reduction in population density, having regard to the nature and extent of compensatory, density-dependence mechanisms in the population. These two questions, together with other more minor issues, are addressed in turn with particular reference to models for immunocontraception of brushtail possums (Trichosurus vulpecula) in New Zealand.

A model for nematodiasis in New Zealand lambs: the effect of drenching regime and grazing management on the development of anthelmintic resistance.

A model for nematodiasis in lambs was expanded to incorporate both the contribution of ewes to nematode epidemiology and the genetic parameters required to simulate the development of anthelmintic resistance in the nematode population. The expanded model was used to assess the impact of various drench and grazing management strategies for ewes and lambs on the rate of development of anthelmintic resistance. Three grazing management options, under a range of drenching schedules, were compared: one in which lambs and ewes were rotationally grazed as separate flocks over the same area after weaning (common grazing); a second in which lambs were grazed, after weaning, on areas from which ewes were excluded (separate grazing); and a third in which lambs were moved to "safe" pasture at weaning and again in early autumn (integrated control). Drenching strategies examined under the first 2 grazing options included a 5 lamb-drench "preventive" programme with 0, 1, 2, 3 or 4 additional lamb drenches, and 0 or 1 ewe drench treatment at either tall-docking or mating. Under the third grazing option, lambs were given either 1 or 2 drench treatments at or following each move to safe pasture and ewes 0 or 1 drench treatment at either tail-docking (i.e., 3-4 weeks after lambing) or mating. Model output suggests that drenching ewes prior to any lamb drenching programme is likely to significantly increase selection for drench resistance by pre-selecting the larval challenge to the lambs and, under some grazing systems, by reducing the diluting effect of eggs of susceptible genotypes passed by undrenched ewes. The results highlight the potential importance of undrenched ewes as a refuge for susceptible worm genotypes and indicate that on its own, drenching frequency is likely to be a poor indicator of selection pressure for resistance and thus of limited value in selecting strategies for the management of anthelmintic resistance.

Bovine tuberculosis in New Zealand: epidemiology and models.

Bovine tuberculosis is New Zealand's most serious animal health problem because of its threat as a nontariff trade barrier to livestock export, and because a wildlife reservoir of 70 million brushtail possums seriously constrains its control. Mathematical models have contributed significantly to current control strategies and have highlighted some key questions of wider epidemiological significance.

A model for nematodiasis in New Zealand lambs.

A strategic model is described for the epidemiology of mixed nematode infections in New Zealand lambs. The model successfully reproduces known patterns of parasite epidemiology and production loss in lambs under currently implemented control strategies. The variation in model output during sensitivity analysis was within acceptable limits defined by field data. Model output was most sensitive to variation in parameters affecting survival and migration of the free-living stages and host resistance to infection, suggesting that these factors are most influential in regulating parasite populations. It is intended to use the model to focus research on key aspects of nematode epidemiology and control and, following the incorporation of appropriate genetic mechanisms, anthelmintic resistance.

A comparison of 3-parameter, single-species population models, in relation to the management of brushtail possums in New Zealand.

A range of published 3-parameter, single-species models are compared using possums in New Zealand as an example. Most models yield similar population growth curves and similar estimates of maximum sustainable yield (MSY). A new model of competition for refuges, and interactive models of competition for food, both yield growth curves peaked to the right. In the second case, the relationship between the shape of the curve and the parameters of the interactive model is described. Three management consequences of asymmetric (rightward-peaked) growth as opposed to logistic growth are discussed. First, where the animal is a pest a greater control effort is required to reduce density. Second, for sustained yield harvesting the best policy is an adaptive one which initially requires no knowledge of the shape of the growth curve. Third, sustainable yields may be 50% higher than those predicted by the simple logistic model.