Association between duration of smoking abstinence before non-small-cell lung cancer diagnosis and survival: a retrospective, pooled analysis of cohort studies.

BACKGROUND: The association between duration of smoking abstinence before non-small-cell lung cancer (NSCLC) diagnosis and subsequent survival can influence public health messaging delivered in lung-cancer screening. We aimed to assess whether the duration of smoking abstinence before diagnosis of NSCLC is associated with improved survival. METHODS: In this retrospective, pooled analysis of cohort studies, we used 26 cohorts participating in Clinical Outcomes Studies of the International Lung Cancer Consortium (COS-ILCCO) at 23 hospitals. 16 (62%) were from North America, six (23%) were from Europe, three (12%) were from Asia, and one (4%) was from South America. Patients enrolled were diagnosed between June 1, 1983, and Dec 31, 2019. Eligible patients had smoking data before NSCLC diagnosis, epidemiological data at diagnosis (obtained largely from patient questionnaires), and clinical information (retrieved from medical records). Kaplan-Meier curves and multivariable Cox models (ie, adjusted hazard ratios [aHRs]) were generated with individual, harmonised patient data from the consortium database. We estimated overall survival for all causes, measured in years from diagnosis date until the date of the last follow-up or death due to any cause and NSCLC-specific survival. FINDINGS: Of 42 087 patients with NSCLC in the COS-ILCCO database, 21 893 (52·0%) of whom were male and 20 194 (48·0%) of whom were female, we excluded 4474 (10·6%) with missing data. Compared with current smokers (15 036 [40·0%] of 37 613), patients with 1-3 years of smoking abstinence before NSCLC diagnosis (2890 [7·7%]) had an overall survival aHR of 0·92 (95% CI 0·87-0·97), patients with 3-5 years of smoking abstinence (1114 [3·0%]) had an overall survival aHR of 0·90 (0·83-0·97), and patients with more than 5 years of smoking abstinence (10 841 [28·8%]) had an overall survival aHR of 0·90 (0·87-0·93). Improved NSCLC-specific survival was observed in 4301 (44%) of 9727 patients who had quit cigarette smoking and was significant at abstinence durations of more than 5 years (aHR 0·87, 95% CI 0·81-0·93). Results were consistent across age, sex, histology, and disease-stage distributions. INTERPRETATION: In this large, pooled analysis of cohort studies across Asia, Europe, North America, and South America, overall survival was improved in patients with NSCLC whose duration of smoking abstinence before diagnosis was as short as 1 year. These findings suggest that quitting smoking can improve overall survival, even if NSCLC is diagnosed at a later lung-cancer screening visit. These findings also support the implementation of public health smoking cessation strategies at any time. FUNDING: The Alan B Brown Chair, The Posluns Family Fund, The Lusi Wong Fund, and the Princess Margaret Cancer Foundation.

Categorizing relative water use perception bias using household surveys and monthly water bills.

We introduce the concept of relative water use perception bias to highlight the role of human relationships, social cues, and the built environment in household water consumption. Although previous studies have explored actual water use, it is also important to understand how people perceive their relative behaviors because humans are social animals and act in relation to each other. We combine household survey responses and water utility bills in a large sample of households to quantify the degree of over- and under-estimation bias in perceived relative household water use. We then use multi-level nested regression models to investigate four categories of potential influence: sociodemographic characteristics, perceived social norms, neighborhood characteristics, and water bill information. Results show that most households tended to view themselves as 'better than average' water users when they actually used more water compared to neighbors. Respondents in high-income households and those who are more concerned about water shortages were more likely to underestimate their relative water use (using comparatively more than they thought). However, in more suburbanized neighborhood environments, households were more likely to overestimate their relative water use (using comparatively less than they thought). We call the inaccuracy in assessing water usage compared to their neighbors' relative water use perception bias. We propose that a better understanding of this bias can aid the design of policy initiatives like neighborhood planning, better water bill design, targeted messaging, and social signaling. By bringing a relational lens to bear on water conservation studies, understanding relative water use perception bias sheds new light on the complex drivers of household water consumption.

Accounting for EGFR Mutations in Epidemiologic Analyses of Non-Small Cell Lung Cancers: Examples Based on the International Lung Cancer Consortium Data.

BACKGROUND: Somatic EGFR mutations define a subset of non-small cell lung cancers (NSCLC) that have clinical impact on NSCLC risk and outcome. However, EGFR-mutation-status is often missing in epidemiologic datasets. We developed and tested pragmatic approaches to account for EGFR-mutation-status based on variables commonly included in epidemiologic datasets and evaluated the clinical utility of these approaches. METHODS: Through analysis of the International Lung Cancer Consortium (ILCCO) epidemiologic datasets, we developed a regression model for EGFR-status; we then applied a clinical-restriction approach using the optimal cut-point, and a second epidemiologic, multiple imputation approach to ILCCO survival analyses that did and did not account for EGFR-status. RESULTS: Of 35,356 ILCCO patients with NSCLC, EGFR-mutation-status was available in 4,231 patients. A model regressing known EGFR-mutation-status on clinical and demographic variables achieved a concordance index of 0.75 (95% CI, 0.74-0.77) in the training and 0.77 (95% CI, 0.74-0.79) in the testing dataset. At an optimal cut-point of probability-score = 0.335, sensitivity = 69% and specificity = 72.5% for determining EGFR-wildtype status. In both restriction-based and imputation-based regression analyses of the individual roles of BMI on overall survival of patients with NSCLC, similar results were observed between overall and EGFR-mutation-negative cohort analyses of patients of all ancestries. However, our approach identified some differences: EGFR-mutated Asian patients did not incur a survival benefit from being obese, as observed in EGFR-wildtype Asian patients. CONCLUSIONS: We introduce a pragmatic method to evaluate the potential impact of EGFR-status on epidemiological analyses of NSCLC. IMPACT: The proposed method is generalizable in the common occurrence in which EGFR-status data are missing.

A multilevel analysis of the drivers of household water consumption in a semi-arid region.

Communities across the Western United States face the growing challenge of managing water resources in the face of rapid population growth and climate change. There are two contrasting approaches to understanding and managing residential water demand in this context. Many scientists and water managers see water use as a reflection of individual attitudes and decisions where people are assumed to have the agency to act independently of structural constraints. Conversely, other scientists and policymakers focus on the importance of the built environment and the broader social, economic, and policy contexts within which households make water decisions. Using multilevel models, we compared attitudinal, demographic, and structural drivers of indoor and outdoor residential water use for a sample of households in Northern Utah. We estimated multilevel mixed-effect Poisson models with robust standard errors using matched household survey data with metered residential water use records. Outdoor water use had a substantially greater amount of neighborhood-level variation than indoor water use. Structural factors generally eclipsed individual agency in our analysis. While indoor use was most strongly predicted by household size, tenure status, and length of residence, outdoor water use was most associated with the built environment (lot size and the presence of vegetable gardens and underground sprinklers), socioeconomic status (household income, rental status), and residents' sensitivity to lawn watering norms. Higher water prices were associated with lower water use, with lower-income households being more responsive to prices than higher-income households. Our findings have important implications for water managers and policymakers.

Elevated Platelet Count Appears to Be Causally Associated with Increased Risk of Lung Cancer: A Mendelian Randomization Analysis.

BACKGROUND: Platelets are a critical element in coagulation and inflammation, and activated platelets are linked to cancer risk through diverse mechanisms. However, a causal relationship between platelets and risk of lung cancer remains unclear. METHODS: We performed single and combined multiple instrumental variable Mendelian randomization analysis by an inverse-weighted method, in addition to a series of sensitivity analyses. Summary data for associations between SNPs and platelet count are from a recent publication that included 48,666 Caucasian Europeans, and the International Lung Cancer Consortium and Transdisciplinary Research in Cancer of the Lung data consisting of 29,266 cases and 56,450 controls to analyze associations between candidate SNPs and lung cancer risk. RESULTS: Multiple instrumental variable analysis incorporating six SNPs showed a 62% increased risk of overall non-small cell lung cancer [NSCLC; OR, 1.62; 95% confidence interval (CI), 1.15-2.27; P = 0.005] and a 200% increased risk for small-cell lung cancer (OR, 3.00; 95% CI, 1.27-7.06; P = 0.01). Results showed only a trending association with NSCLC histologic subtypes, which may be due to insufficient sample size and/or weak effect size. A series of sensitivity analysis retained these findings. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings suggest a causal relationship between elevated platelet count and increased risk of lung cancer and provide evidence of possible antiplatelet interventions for lung cancer prevention. IMPACT: These findings provide a better understanding of lung cancer etiology and potential evidence for antiplatelet interventions for lung cancer prevention.

Circulating Vitamin D and Colorectal Cancer Risk: An International Pooling Project of 17 Cohorts.

BACKGROUND: Experimental and epidemiological studies suggest a protective role for vitamin D in colorectal carcinogenesis, but evidence is inconclusive. Circulating 25-hydroxyvitamin D (25(OH)D) concentrations that minimize risk are unknown. Current Institute of Medicine (IOM) vitamin D guidance is based solely on bone health. METHODS: We pooled participant-level data from 17 cohorts, comprising 5706 colorectal cancer case participants and 7107 control participants with a wide range of circulating 25(OH)D concentrations. For 30.1% of participants, 25(OH)D was newly measured. Previously measured 25(OH)D was calibrated to the same assay to permit estimating risk by absolute concentrations. Study-specific relative risks (RRs) for prediagnostic season-standardized 25(OH)D concentrations were calculated using conditional logistic regression and pooled using random effects models. RESULTS: Compared with the lower range of sufficiency for bone health (50-<62.5 nmol/L), deficient 25(OH)D (<30 nmol/L) was associated with 31% higher colorectal cancer risk (RR = 1.31, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.05 to 1.62); 25(OH)D above sufficiency (75-<87.5 and 87.5-<100 nmol/L) was associated with 19% (RR = 0.81, 95% CI = 0.67 to 0.99) and 27% (RR = 0.73, 95% CI = 0.59 to 0.91) lower risk, respectively. At 25(OH)D of 100 nmol/L or greater, risk did not continue to decline and was not statistically significantly reduced (RR = 0.91, 95% CI = 0.67 to 1.24, 3.5% of control participants). Associations were minimally affected when adjusting for body mass index, physical activity, or other risk factors. For each 25 nmol/L increment in circulating 25(OH)D, colorectal cancer risk was 19% lower in women (RR = 0.81, 95% CI = 0.75 to 0.87) and 7% lower in men (RR = 0.93, 95% CI = 0.86 to 1.00) (two-sided Pheterogeneity by sex = .008). Associations were inverse in all subgroups, including colorectal subsite, geographic region, and season of blood collection. CONCLUSIONS: Higher circulating 25(OH)D was related to a statistically significant, substantially lower colorectal cancer risk in women and non-statistically significant lower risk in men. Optimal 25(OH)D concentrations for colorectal cancer risk reduction, 75-100 nmol/L, appear higher than current IOM recommendations.

Prediagnostic circulating markers of inflammation and risk of oesophageal adenocarcinoma: a study within the National Cancer Institute Cohort Consortium.

OBJECTIVE: Cross-sectional data indicate that systemic inflammation is important in oesophageal adenocarcinoma. We conducted a prospective study to assess whether prediagnostic circulating markers of inflammation were associated with oesophageal adenocarcinoma and to what extent they mediated associations of obesity and cigarette smoking with cancer risk. DESIGN: This nested case-control study included 296 oesophageal adenocarcinoma cases and 296 incidence density matched controls from seven prospective cohort studies. We quantitated 69 circulating inflammation markers using Luminex-based multiplex assays. Conditional logistic regression models estimated associations between inflammation markers and oesophageal adenocarcinoma, as well as direct and indirect effects of obesity and smoking on risk of malignancy. RESULTS: Soluble tumour necrosis factor receptor 2 (sTNFR2) (ORsquartile 4 vs 1=2.67, 95% CI 1.52 to 4.68) was significantly associated with oesophageal adenocarcinoma. Additional markers close to the adjusted significance threshold included C reactive protein, serum amyloid A, lipocalin-2, resistin, interleukin (IL) 3, IL17A, soluble IL-6 receptor and soluble vascular endothelial growth factor receptor 3. Adjustment for body mass index, waist circumference or smoking status slightly attenuated biomarker-cancer associations. Mediation analysis indicated that sTNFR2 may account for 33% (p=0.005) of the effect of waist circumference on oesophageal adenocarcinoma risk. Resistin, plasminogen activator inhibitor 1, C reactive protein and serum amyloid A were also identified as potential mediators of obesity-oesophageal adenocarcinoma associations. For smoking status, only plasminogen activator inhibitor 1 was a nominally statistically significant (p<0.05) mediator of cancer risk. CONCLUSION: This prospective study provides evidence of a link between systemic inflammation and oesophageal adenocarcinoma risk. In addition, this study provides the first evidence that indirect effects of excess adiposity and cigarette smoking, via systemic inflammation, increase the risk of oesophageal adenocarcinoma.

Telomere Length and Lung Cancer Mortality among Heavy Smokers.

Background: Accumulating evidence suggests that short telomere length is associated with increased overall mortality, but the relationship with cancer mortality is less clear. We examined whether telomere length (global, and chromosome arm 5p- and 13q-specific) is associated with lung cancer mortality among cases from the ß-Carotene and Retinol Efficacy Trial of heavy smokers.Methods: Telomere length was measured on average 6 years before diagnosis for 788 lung cancer cases. Adjusted Cox proportional hazards models of all-cause and lung cancer-specific mortality were assessed for lung cancer overall and by histotype.Results: Short telomere length was associated with increased mortality for small cell lung cancer (SCLC), particularly stage III/IV SCLC [HR and 95% confidence interval for shortest vs. longest telomere length tertile: 3.32 (1.78-6.21)]. Associations were strongest for those randomized to the active intervention and when telomere length was measured ≤5 years before diagnosis. All-cause mortality patterns were similar. Short chromosome 5p telomere length was suggestively associated with lung cancer mortality, but there was no association with chromosome 13q telomere length.Conclusions: Our large prospective study suggests that among heavy smokers who developed lung cancer, short prediagnosis telomere length is associated with increased risk of death from SCLC.Impact: This is the first study to examine telomere length and mortality in lung cancer cases by histotype. If the association between short telomere length and SCLC mortality is replicated, elucidation of mechanisms through which telomere length influences survival for this highly aggressive cancer may inform more effective use of telomere-targeted therapeutics. Cancer Epidemiol Biomarkers Prev; 27(7); 829-37. ©2018 AACR.

The collaboration readiness of transdisciplinary research teams and centers findings from the National Cancer Institute's TREC Year-One evaluation study.

Growing interest in promoting cross-disciplinary collaboration among health scientists has prompted several federal agencies, including the NIH, to establish large, multicenter initiatives intended to foster collaborative research and training. In order to assess whether these initiatives are effective in promoting scientific collaboration that ultimately results in public health improvements, it is necessary to develop new strategies for evaluating research processes and products as well as the longer-term societal outcomes associated with these programs. Ideally, evaluative measures should be administered over the entire course of large initiatives, including their near-term and later phases. The present study focuses on the development of new tools for assessing the readiness for collaboration among health scientists at the outset (during the first year) of their participation in the National Cancer Institute's Transdisciplinary Research on Energetics and Cancer (TREC) initiative. Indexes of collaborative readiness, along with additional measures of near-term collaborative processes, were administered as part of the TREC Year-One evaluation survey. Additionally, early progress toward scientific collaboration and integration was assessed, using a protocol for evaluating written research products. Results from the Year-One survey and the ratings of written products provide evidence of cross-disciplinary collaboration among participants during the first year of the initiative, and also reveal opportunities for enhancing collaborative processes and outcomes during subsequent phases of the project. The implications of these findings for future evaluations of team science initiatives are discussed.

Quantitative assessment of collagenase blends for human islet isolation.

BACKGROUND: The variability in collagenase blends has been speculated as the single most important determinant of the success or failure in isolated islet yields in clinical islet transplantation. Examination of the formulation and potency of the widely used Liberase HI enzyme blend will uncover possible sources of imprecision. METHODS: High performance liquid chromatography (HPLC) and kinetic measurements of collagenase and protease activity were used to assess potency. Between four and nine clinical lots were assessed for various parameters such as relative formulation of collagenase isoforms, and recovered collagenase and protease potencies postreconstitution. RESULTS: Six vials from a single typical lot had a mean enzyme content of 489+/-62.5 mg (mean+/-SEM; range 398-610 mg). The mean recovered collagenase activity was 2235+/-310 Wünsch units (WU)/vial (range 1794-2968 WU/vial). The percent coefficients of variation for collagenase and protease activity in these vials were 17.4%, and 13.4%, respectively. The increase in the presence of the collagenase Ib (CIb) isoform detected by HPLC analysis was related to the chronological order of the date of manufacture. The CIb isoform was found to have a reduced specific activity compared to intact collagenase I (CI) (3.8+/-1.2 WU/mg vs. 2.1+/-0.7 WU/mg, P < 0.05). The presence of CIb was related to reduced islet yields in twelve human isolations studied. CONCLUSIONS: Variation in potency was observed between, and within lots of Liberase HI in this study. Differences in relative collagenase isoform composition may also affect the stability and potency characteristics of these blends.