Socio-economic pandemic modelling: case of Spain.

A global disaster, such as the recent Covid-19 pandemic, affects every aspect of our lives and there is a need to investigate these highly complex phenomena if one aims to diminish their impact in the health of the population, as well as their socio-economic stability. In this paper we present an attempt to understand the role of the governmental authorities and the response of the rest of the population facing such emergencies. We present a mathematical model that takes into account the epidemiological features of the pandemic and also the actions of people responding to it, focusing only on three aspects of the system, namely, the fear of catching this serious disease, the impact on the economic activities and the compliance of the people to the mitigating measures adopted by the authorities. We apply the model to the specific case of Spain, since there are accurate data available about these three features. We focused on tourism as an example of the economic activity, since this sector of economy is one of the most likely to be affected by the restrictions imposed by the authorities, and because it represents an important part of Spanish economy. The results of numerical calculations agree with the empirical data in such a way that we can acquire a better insight of the different processes at play in such a complex situation, and also in other different circumstances.

Forecasting virus outbreaks with social media data via neural ordinary differential equations.

During the Covid-19 pandemic, real-time social media data could in principle be used as an early predictor of a new epidemic wave. This possibility is examined here by employing a neural ordinary differential equation (neural ODE) trained to forecast viral outbreaks in a specific geographic region. It learns from multivariate time series of signals derived from a novel set of large online polls regarding COVID-19 symptoms. Once trained, the neural ODE can capture the dynamics of interconnected local signals and effectively estimate the number of new infections up to two months in advance. In addition, it may predict the future consequences of changes in the number of infected at a certain period, which might be related with the flow of individuals entering or exiting a region. This study provides persuasive evidence for the predictive ability of widely disseminated social media surveys for public health applications.