Modelling the dynamics of dengue real epidemics.

In this work, we use a mathematical model for dengue transmission with the aim of analysing and comparing two dengue epidemics that occurred in Salvador, Brazil, in 1995-1996 and 2002. Using real data, we obtain the force of infection, Λ, and the basic reproductive number, R(0), for both epidemics. We also obtain the time evolution of the effective reproduction number, R(t), which results in a very suitable measure to compare the patterns of both epidemics. Based on the analysis of the behaviour of R(0) and R(t) in relation to the adult mosquito control parameter of the model, we show that the control applied only to the adult stage of the mosquito population is not sufficient to stop dengue transmission, emphasizing the importance of applying the control to the aquatic phase of the mosquito.

Periodic forcing in a three-level cellular automata model for a vector-transmitted disease.

A periodically forced two-dimensional cellular automata model is used to reproduce and analyze the complex spatiotemporal patterns observed in the transmission of vector infectious diseases. The system, which comprises three population levels, is introduced to describe complex features of the dynamics of the vector-transmitted dengue epidemics, known to be very sensitive to seasonal variables. The three coupled levels represent the human, the adult, and immature vector populations. The dynamics includes external seasonality forcing, human and mosquito mobility, and vector control effects. The model parameters, even if bounded to well-defined intervals obtained from reported data, can be selected to reproduce specific epidemic outbursts. In the current study, explicit results are obtained by comparison with actual data retrieved from the time series of dengue epidemics in two cities in Brazil. The results show fluctuations that are not captured by mean-field models. It also reveals the qualitative behavior of the spatiotemporal patterns of the epidemics. In the extreme situation of the absence of external periodic drive, the model predicts a completely distinct long-time evolution. The model is robust in the sense that it is able to reproduce the time series of dengue epidemics of different cities, provided that the forcing term takes into account the local rainfall modulation. Finally, an analysis is provided of the effect of the dependence between epidemics threshold and vector control actions, both in the presence and absence of human mobility factor.

[Epidemiology of dengue in Salvador-Bahia, 1995-1999]. / Epidemiologia do dengue em Salvador-Bahia,1995-1999.

Since 1981, Brazil has registered dengue epidemic and simultaneous circulation of the DEN-1 and DEN-2 serotypes in over 2,700 municipalities. In Salvador- Bahia, located in the Northeastern region of the Country, two epidemic outbreaks occurred in the years of 1995 and 1996, with further endemic spread of the disease. This study analyses the incidence of the virosis within this municipal area, from 1995 to 1999, considering, among other variables, its distribution in the Sanitary Districts and density of Aedes aegypti. Registers of notified cases and the city's Vectorial Control Program were used as data source. The incidence rate of notified cases of dengue in 1995 and 1996, which were 691.4 and 393.5 per 100,000 inhabitants, respectively, decreased to 65 per 100,000 inhabitants in 1998. In the poorer Sanitary Districts, this index reached figures of over 800 per 100,000 inhabitants. The Premise Index for Aedes aegypti reached 54.1% in one of the Districts. Bearing in mind the relevance of the re-emergence of dengue in the world, the authors discuss the possible factors which condition the virus introduction, its epidemiological presentation over the course of four years, and the effectiveness of the vectorial combat (eradication) program.

Epidemiologia do dengue em Salvador-Bahia, 1995-1999 / Epidemiology of dengue in Salvador-Bahia, 1995-1999

Since 1981, Brazil has registered dengue epidemic and simultaneous circulation of the DEN-1 and DEN-2 serotypes in over 2,700 municipalities. In Salvador- Bahia, located in the Northeastern region of the Country, two epidemic outbreaks occurred in the years of 1995 and 1996, with further endemic spread of the disease. This study analyses the incidence of the virosis within this municipal area, from 1995 to 1999, considering, among other variables, its distribution in the Sanitary Districts and density of Aedes aegypti. Registers of notified cases and the city's Vectorial Control Program were used as data source. The incidence rate of notified cases of dengue in 1995 and 1996, which were 691.4 and 393.5 per 100,000 inhabitants, respectively, decreased to 65 per 100,000 inhabitants in 1998. In the poorer Sanitary Districts, this index reached figures of over 800 per 100,000 inhabitants. The Premise Index for Aedes aegypti reached 54.1% in one of the Districts. Bearing in mind the relevance of the re-emergence of dengue in the world, the authors discuss the possible factors which condition the virus introduction, its epidemiological presentation over the course of four years, and the effectiveness of the vectorial combat (eradication) program.

Desde 1981, o Brasil tem registrado epidemias de dengue de grande magnitude e atualmente circulam simultaneamente dois sorotipos DEN-1 e DEN¾2, em mais de 2.700 municípios. Em Salvador - Bahia, situada na Região Nordeste do país, ocorreram duas epidemias nos anos de 1995 e 1996, e posterior endemização da doença. Este estudo analisa a incidência desta virose nesse município, no período de 1995 a 1999, considerando entre outras variáveis, sua distribuição nos Distritos Sanitários e a situação de densidade do Aedes aegypti. Utiliza como fonte de dados registros oficiais de notificação e do programa de combate vetorial da cidade. A taxa de incidência de dengue foi de 691,4 e 393,5 por 100.000 habitantes, respectivamente, em 1995 e 1996, reduziu-se para 65 por 100.000 em 1998. Nos Distritos Sanitários mais carentes, este indicador alcançou valores superiores a 800 por 100.000 habitantes. O Índice de Infestação Predial pelo Aedes chegou a atingir 54,1% em um dos seus bairros. Considerando a importância da reemergência do dengue no mundo os autores discutem os possíveis fatores que condicionaram a introdução do vírus, as suas apresentações epidemiológicas no curso de 4 anos, e a efetividade do programa de combate vetorial.