RESUMO
BackgroundCOVID-19 is a virus which has lead to a global pandemic. Worldwide, more than 130 countries have imposed severe restrictions, which form part of a set of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPI)s. We aimed to quantify the country-specific effects of these NPIs and compare them using the Oxford COVID-19 Government Response Tracker (OxCGRT) stringency index, p, as a measure of NPI stringency. MethodsWe developed a dual latent/observable Susceptible Infected Recovered Deaths (SIRD) model and applied it on each of 22 countries and 25 states in the US using publicly available data. The observable model parameters were extracted using kernel functions. The regression of the transmission rate, {beta}, as a function of p in each locale was modeled through the intervention leverage, s, an initial transmission rate, {beta}0 and a typical adjustment time, [Formula]. ResultsThe world average for the intervention leverage, s = 0.01 (95% CI 0.0102 - 0.0112) had an ensemble standard deviation of 0.0017 (95% C.I. 0.0014 - 0.0021), strongly indicating a universal behavior. DiscussionOur study indicates that removing NPIs too swiftly will result in the resurgence of the spread within one to two months, in alignment with the current WHO recommendations. Moreover, we have quantified and are able to predict the effect of various combinations of NPIs. There is a minimum NPI level, below which leads to resurgence of the outbreak (in the absence of pharmaceutical and clinical advances). For the epidemic to remain sub-critical, the rate with which the intervention leverage s increases should outpace that of the relaxation of NPIs.
