Multi-sectoral impact assessment of an extreme African dust episode in the Eastern Mediterranean in March 2018.

In late March 2018, a large part of the Eastern Mediterranean experienced an extraordinary episode of African dust, one of the most intense in recent years, here referred to as the "Minoan Red" event. The episode mainly affected the Greek island of Crete, where the highest aerosol concentrations over the past 15 yeas were recorded, although impacts were also felt well beyond this core area. Our study fills a gap in dust research by assessing the multi-sectoral impacts of sand and dust storms and their socioeconomic implications. Specifically, we provide a multi-sectoral impact assessment of Crete during the occurrence of this exceptional African dust event. During the day of the occurrence of the maximum dust concentration in Crete, i.e. March 22nd, 2018, we identified impacts on meteorological conditions, agriculture, transport, energy, society (including closing of schools and cancellation of social events), and emergency response systems. As a result, the event led to a 3-fold increase in daily emergency responses compare to previous days associated with urban emergencies and wildfires, a 3.5-fold increase in hospital visits and admissions for Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD) exacerbations and dyspnoea, a reduction of visibility causing aircraft traffic disruptions (eleven cancellations and seven delays), and a reduction of solar energy production. We estimate the cost of direct and indirect effects of the dust episode, considering the most affected socio-economic sectors (e.g. civil protection, aviation, health and solar energy production), to be between 3.4 and 3.8 million EUR for Crete. Since such desert dust transport episodes are natural, meteorology-driven and thus to a large extent unavoidable, we argue that the efficiency of actions to mitigate dust impacts depends on the accuracy of operational dust forecasting and the implementation of relevant early warning systems for social awareness.

Multiannual assessment of the desert dust impact on air quality in Italy combining PM10 data with physics-based and geostatistical models.

Desert dust storms pose real threats to air quality and health of millions of people in source regions, with associated impacts extending to downwind areas. Europe (EU) is frequently affected by atmospheric transport of desert dust from the Northern Africa and Middle East drylands. This investigation aims at quantifying the role of desert dust transport events on air quality (AQ) over Italy, which is among the EU countries most impacted by this phenomenon. We focus on the particulate matter (PM) metrics regulated by the EU AQ Directive. In particular, we use multiannual (2006-2012) PM10 records collected in hundreds monitoring sites within the national AQ network to quantify daily and annual contributions of dust during transport episodes. The methodology followed was built on specific European Commission guidelines released to evaluate the natural contributions to the measured PM-levels, and was partially modified, tested and adapted to the Italian case in a previous study. Overall, we show that impact of dust on the yearly average PM10 has a clear latitudinal gradient (from less than 1 to greater than 10 µg/m3 going from north to south Italy), this feature being mainly driven by an increased number of dust episodes per year with decreasing latitude. Conversely, the daily-average dust-PM10 (≅12 µg/m3) is more homogenous over the country and shown to be mainly influenced by the site type, with enhanced values in more urbanized locations. This study also combines the PM10 measurements-approach with geostatistical modelling. In particular, exploiting the dust-PM10 dataset obtained at site- and daily-resolution over Italy, a geostatistical, random-forest model was set up to derive a daily, spatially-continuous field of desert-dust PM10 at high (1-km) resolution. This finely resolved information represent the basis for a follow up investigation of both acute and chronic health effects of desert dust over Italy, stemming from daily and annual exposures, respectively.

Widespread phytoplankton blooms triggered by 2019-2020 Australian wildfires.

Droughts and climate-change-driven warming are leading to more frequent and intense wildfires1-3, arguably contributing to the severe 2019-2020 Australian wildfires4. The environmental and ecological impacts of the fires include loss of habitats and the emission of substantial amounts of atmospheric aerosols5-7. Aerosol emissions from wildfires can lead to the atmospheric transport of macronutrients and bio-essential trace metals such as nitrogen and iron, respectively8-10. It has been suggested that the oceanic deposition of wildfire aerosols can relieve nutrient limitations and, consequently, enhance marine productivity11,12, but direct observations are lacking. Here we use satellite and autonomous biogeochemical Argo float data to evaluate the effect of 2019-2020 Australian wildfire aerosol deposition on phytoplankton productivity. We find anomalously widespread phytoplankton blooms from December 2019 to March 2020 in the Southern Ocean downwind of Australia. Aerosol samples originating from the Australian wildfires contained a high iron content and atmospheric trajectories show that these aerosols were likely to be transported to the bloom regions, suggesting that the blooms resulted from the fertilization of the iron-limited waters of the Southern Ocean. Climate models project more frequent and severe wildfires in many regions1-3. A greater appreciation of the links between wildfires, pyrogenic aerosols13, nutrient cycling and marine photosynthesis could improve our understanding of the contemporary and glacial-interglacial cycling of atmospheric CO2 and the global climate system.

Saharan Dust Events in the Dust Belt -Canary Islands- and the Observed Association with in-Hospital Mortality of Patients with Heart Failure.

Recent studies have found increases in the cardiovascular mortality rates during poor air quality events due to outbreaks of desert dust. In Tenerife, we collected (2014-2017) data in 829 patients admitted with a heart failure diagnosis in the Emergency Department of the University Hospital of the Canaries. In this region, concentrations of PM10 and PM2.5 are usually low (~20 and 10 µg/m3), but they increase to 360 and 115 µg/m3, respectively, during Saharan dust events. By using statistical tools (including multivariable logistic regressions), we compared in-hospital mortality of patients with heart failure and exposure to PM10 and PM2.5 during dust and no-dust events. We found that 86% of in-hospital heart failure mortality cases occurred during Saharan dust episodes that resulted in PM10 > 50 µg/m3 (interquartile range: 71-96 µg/m3). A multivariate analysis showed that, after adjusting for other covariates, exposure to Saharan dust events associated with PM10 > 50 µg/m3 was an independent predictor of heart failure in-hospital mortality (OR = 2.79, 95% CI (1.066-7.332), p = 0.03). In conclusion, this study demonstrates that exposure to high Saharan dust concentrations is independently associated with in-hospital mortality in patients with heart failure.

Current state of the global operational aerosol multi-model ensemble: An update from the International Cooperative for Aerosol Prediction (ICAP).

Since the first International Cooperative for Aerosol Prediction (ICAP) multi-model ensemble (MME) study, the number of ICAP global operational aerosol models has increased from five to nine. An update of the current ICAP status is provided, along with an evaluation of the performance of ICAP-MME over 2012-2017, with a focus on June 2016-May 2017. Evaluated with ground-based Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET) aerosol optical depth (AOD) and data assimilation quality MODerate-resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) retrieval products, the ICAP-MME AOD consensus remains the overall top-scoring and most consistent performer among all models in terms of root-mean-square error (RMSE), bias and correlation for total, fine- and coarse-mode AODs as well as dust AOD; this is similar to the first ICAP-MME study. Further, over the years, the performance of ICAP-MME is relatively stable and reliable compared to more variability in the individual models. The extent to which the AOD forecast error of ICAP-MME can be predicted is also examined. Leading predictors are found to be the consensus mean and spread. Regression models of absolute forecast errors were built for AOD forecasts of different lengths for potential applications. ICAP-MME performance in terms of modal AOD RMSEs of the 21 regionally representative sites over 2012-2017 suggests a general tendency for model improvements in fine-mode AOD, especially over Asia. No significant improvement in coarse-mode AOD is found overall for this time period.

Saharan dust deposition may affect phytoplankton growth in the Mediterranean sea at ecological time scales.

The surface waters of the Mediterranean Sea are extremely poor in the nutrients necessary for plankton growth. At the same time, the Mediterranean Sea borders with the largest and most active desert areas in the world and the atmosphere over the basin is subject to frequent injections of mineral dust particles. We describe statistical correlations between dust deposition over the Mediterranean Sea and surface chlorophyll concentrations at ecological time scales. Aerosol deposition of Saharan origin may explain 1 to 10% (average 5%) of seasonally detrended chlorophyll variability in the low nutrient-low chlorophyll Mediterranean. Most of the statistically significant correlations are positive with main effects in spring over the Eastern and Central Mediterranean, conforming to a view of dust events fueling needed nutrients to the planktonic community. Some areas show negative effects of dust deposition on chlorophyll, coinciding with regions under a large influence of aerosols from European origin. The influence of dust deposition on chlorophyll dynamics may become larger in future scenarios of increased aridity and shallowing of the mixed layer.