Predictors of immunodeficiency-related death in a cohort of low-income people living with HIV: a competing risks survival analysis.

We conducted a survival analysis with competing risks to estimate the mortality rate and predictive factors for immunodeficiency-related death in people living with HIV/AIDS (PLWH) in northeast Brazil. A cohort with 2372 PLWH was enrolled between July 2007 and June 2010 and monitored until 31 December 2012 at two healthcare centres. The event of interest was immunodeficiency-related death, which was defined based on the Coding Causes of Death in HIV Protocol (CoDe). The predictor variables were: sociodemographic characteristics, illicit drugs, tobacco, alcohol, nutritional status, antiretroviral therapy, anaemia and CD4 cell count at baseline; and treatment or chemoprophylaxis for tuberculosis (TB) during follow-up. We used Fine & Gray's model for the survival analyses with competing risks, since we had regarded immunodeficiency-unrelated deaths as a competing event, and we estimated the adjusted sub-distribution hazard ratios (SHRs). In 10 012·6 person-years of observation there were 3·1 deaths/100 person-years (2·3 immunodeficiency-related and 0·8 immunodeficiency-unrelated). TB (SHR 4·01), anaemia (SHR 3·58), CD4 <200 cells/mm3 (SHR 3·33) and being unemployed (SHR 1·56) were risk factors for immunodeficiency-related death. This study discloses a 13% coverage by highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART) in our state and adds that anaemia at baseline or the incidence of TB may increase the specific risk of dying from HIV-immunodeficiency, regardless of HAART and CD4.

Survival of HIV-infected patients after starting tuberculosis treatment: a prospective cohort study.

OBJECTIVES: To estimate the probability of survival and to evaluate risk factors for death in a cohort of persons living with human immunodeficiency virus (PLHIV) who had started tuberculosis (TB) treatment. METHODS: A prospective cohort study was conducted between June 2007 and December 2009 with HIV-infected patients who had started anti-tuberculosis treatment in the State of Pernambuco, Brazil. Survival data were analysed using the Kaplan-Meier estimator, the log-rank test and the Cox model. Hazard ratios and their respective 95%CIs were estimated. RESULTS: Of a cohort of 2310 HIV-positive individuals, 333 patients who had commenced treatment for TB were analysed. The mortality rate was 5.25 per 10,000 person-years (95%CI 4.15-6.63). The probability of survival at 30 months was 74%. Risk factors for death in the study population were being female, age ≥30 years, having anaemia, not using highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART) during treatment for TB and disseminated TB. Protective factors for death were a CD4 lymphocyte count >200 cells/mm(3) and treatment for TB having started in an out-patient clinic. CONCLUSIONS: The use of HAART can prevent deaths among HIV-TB patients, corroborating the efficacy of starting HAART early in individuals with TB.