Ensemble2: Scenarios ensembling for communication and performance analysis.

Throughout the COVID-19 pandemic, scenario modeling played a crucial role in shaping the decision-making process of public health policies. Unlike forecasts, scenario projections rely on specific assumptions about the future that consider different plausible states-of-the-world that may or may not be realized and that depend on policy interventions, unpredictable changes in the epidemic outlook, etc. As a consequence, long-term scenario projections require different evaluation criteria than the ones used for traditional short-term epidemic forecasts. Here, we propose a novel ensemble procedure for assessing pandemic scenario projections using the results of the Scenario Modeling Hub (SMH) for COVID-19 in the United States (US). By defining a "scenario ensemble" for each model and the ensemble of models, termed "Ensemble2", we provide a synthesis of potential epidemic outcomes, which we use to assess projections' performance, bypassing the identification of the most plausible scenario. We find that overall the Ensemble2 models are well-calibrated and provide better performance than the scenario ensemble of individual models. The ensemble procedure accounts for the full range of plausible outcomes and highlights the importance of scenario design and effective communication. The scenario ensembling approach can be extended to any scenario design strategy, with potential refinements including weighting scenarios and allowing the ensembling process to evolve over time.

A biologically based model to quantitatively assess the role of the nuclear receptors liver X (LXR), and pregnane X (PXR) on chemically induced hepatic steatosis.

Hepatic steatosis is characterized by the intracellular increase of free fatty acids (FFAs) in the form of triglycerides in hepatocytes. This hepatic adverse outcome can be caused by many factors, including exposure to drugs or environmental toxicants. Mechanistically, accumulation of lipids in the liver can take place via several mechanisms such as de novo synthesis and/or uptake of FFAs from serum via high fat content diets. De novo synthesis of FFAs within the liver is mediated by the liver X receptor (LXR), and their uptake into the liver is mediated through the pregnane X receptor (PXR). We investigated the impact of chemical exposure on FFAs hepatic content via activation of LXR and PXR by integrating chemical-specific physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) models with a quantitative toxicology systems (QTS) model of hepatic lipid homeostasis. Three known agonists of LXR and/or PXR were modeled: T0901317 (antagonist for both receptors), GW3965 (LXR only), and Rifampicin (PXR only). Model predictions showed that T0901317 caused the most FFAs build-up in the liver, followed by Rifampicin and then GW3965. These modeling results highlight the importance of PXR activation for serum FFAs uptake into the liver while suggesting that increased hepatic FAAs de novo synthesis alone may not be enough to cause appreciable accumulation of lipids in the liver under normal environmental exposure levels. Moreover, the overall PBPK-hepatic lipids quantitative model can be used to screen chemicals for their potential to cause in vivo hepatic lipid content buildup in view of their in vitro potential to activate the nuclear receptors and their exposure levels.