Toward better targeting of mitigation measures for reducing phosphorus losses from land to water: Andrew Sharpley's legacy in Norway and Sweden.

Nordic agriculture faces big challenges to reduce phosphorus (P) loss from land to water for improving surface water quality. While understanding the processes controlling P loss and seeking for P mitigation measures, Norwegian and Swedish researchers have substantially benefited from and been inspired by Dr. Andrew Sharpley's career-long, high-standard P research. Here, we demonstrate how Sharpley and his research have helped the Nordic researchers to understand the role of cover crops in cold environmental conditions, best manure P management practices, and ditch processes. His work on critical source area (CSA) identification and site assessment tool development have also greatly inspired our thinking on the targeting of mitigation measures and the contextualizing tools for Nordic climate, landscape, and soils. While reflecting on Sharpley's legacy, we identify several needs for Norwegian and Swedish P research and management. These include (1) tackling the challenges caused by local/regional unevenness in livestock density and related manure management and farm P surpluses, (2) identifying CSAs of P loss with high erosion risk and high P surplus, (3) obtaining more high-resolution mapping of soils with low P sorption capacity both in the topsoil and subsoil, (4) improving cross-scale understanding of processes and mitigation measures and proper follow-up of applied mitigation measures, and (5) increasing collaborations of researchers with farmers and farmers' advisory groups and watershed groups by developing high-quality educational courses and extension materials. The needs should be addressed in the context of the challenges and opportunities created by climate change.

Twenty years of catchment monitoring highlights the predominant role of long-term phosphorus balances and soil phosphorus status in affecting phosphorus loss in livestock-intensive regions.

Livestock husbandry has raised enormous environmental concerns around the world, including water quality issues. Yet there is a need to document long-term water quality trends in livestock-intensive regions and reveal the drivers for the trends based on detailed catchment monitoring. Here, we assessed the concentration and load trends of dissolved reactive phosphorus (DRP) in streamwater of a livestock-intensive catchment in southwestern Norway, based on continuous flow measurements and flow-proportional composite water sampling. Precipitation and catchment-level soil P balance were monitored to examine the drivers. At the field level, moreover, the relationship between soil P balance and soil test P (measured using the ammonium lactate extraction method, P-AL) was assessed. Results showed that on average of 20 years 95 % of the P was applied to the catchment during March-August, when 40 % of annual precipitation and 25 % of annual discharge occurred. The low runoff helped reduce P loss following P applications. However, flow-weighted annual mean DRP concentration significantly increased with increasingly cumulative soil P surplus (R2 = 0.55, p = 0.0002). With a mean annual P surplus of 8.8 kg ha-1, the annual mean DRP concentration (range: 49-140 µg L-1; mean: 80 µg L-1) and annual DRP load (range: 0.35-1.46 kg ha-1; mean: 0.65 kg ha-1) significantly increased over the 20-year monitoring period (p = 0.001 and 0.0003, respectively). At the field level, P-AL concentrations were positively correlated with soil P balances (R2 = 0.48, p < 0.0001), confirming the long-term impact of P balances on the risks of P loss. The study highlights the predominant role of long-term P balances in affecting DRP loss in livestock-intensive regions through the effect on soil test P.

Climate effects on land management and stream nitrogen concentrations in small agricultural catchments in Norway.

Land use and climate change can impact water quality in agricultural catchments. The objectives were to assess long-term monitoring data to quantify changes to the thermal growing season length, investigate farmer adaptations to this and examine these and other factors in relation to total nitrogen and nitrate water concentrations. Data (1991-2017) from seven small Norwegian agricultural catchments were analysed using Mann-Kendall Trend Tests, Pearson correlation and a linear mixed model. The growing season length increased significantly in four of seven catchments. In catchments with cereal production, the increased growing season length corresponded to a reduction in nitrogen concentrations, but there was no such relationship in grassland catchments. In one cereal catchment, a significant correlation was found between the start of sowing and start of the thermal growing season. Understanding the role of the growing season and other factors can provide additional insight into processes and land use choices taking place in agricultural catchments.

Potential impacts of a future Nordic bioeconomy on surface water quality.

Nordic water bodies face multiple stressors due to human activities, generating diffuse loading and climate change. The 'green shift' towards a bio-based economy poses new demands and increased pressure on the environment. Bioeconomy-related pressures consist primarily of more intensive land management to maximise production of biomass. These activities can add considerable nutrient and sediment loads to receiving waters, posing a threat to ecosystem services and good ecological status of surface waters. The potential threats of climate change and the 'green shift' highlight the need for improved understanding of catchment-scale water and element fluxes. Here, we assess possible bioeconomy-induced pressures on Nordic catchments and associated impacts on water quality. We suggest measures to protect water quality under the 'green shift' and propose 'road maps' towards sustainable catchment management. We also identify knowledge gaps and highlight the importance of long-term monitoring data and good models to evaluate changes in water quality, improve understanding of bioeconomy-related impacts, support mitigation measures and maintain ecosystem services.

A Global Perspective on Phosphorus Management Decision Support in Agriculture: Lessons Learned and Future Directions.

The evolution of phosphorus (P) management decision support tools (DSTs) and systems (DSS), in support of food and environmental security has been most strongly affected in developed regions by national strategies (i) to optimize levels of plant available P in agricultural soils, and (ii) to mitigate P runoff to water bodies. In the United States, Western Europe, and New Zealand, combinations of regulatory and voluntary strategies, sometimes backed by economic incentives, have often been driven by reactive legislation to protect water bodies. Farmer-specific DSSs, either based on modeling of P transfer source and transport mechanisms, or when coupled with farm-specific information or local knowledge, have typically guided best practices, education, and implementation, yet applying DSSs in data poor catchments and/or where user adoption is poor hampers the effectiveness of these systems. Recent developments focused on integrated digital mapping of hydrologically sensitive areas and critical source areas, sometimes using real-time data and weather forecasting, have rapidly advanced runoff modeling and education. Advances in technology related to monitoring, imaging, sensors, remote sensing, and analytical instrumentation will facilitate the development of DSSs that can predict heterogeneity over wider geographical areas. However, significant challenges remain in developing DSSs that incorporate "big data" in a format that is acceptable to users, and that adequately accounts for catchment variability, farming systems, and farmer behavior. Future efforts will undoubtedly focus on improving efficiency and conserving phosphate rock reserves in the face of future scarcity or prohibitive cost. Most importantly, the principles reviewed here are critical for sustainable agriculture.

Abating N in Nordic agriculture - Policy, measures and way forward.

During the past twenty years, the Nordic countries (Denmark, Sweden, Finland and Norway) have introduced a range of measures to reduce losses of nitrogen (N) to air and to aquatic environment by leaching and runoff. However, the agricultural sector is still an important N source to the environment, and projections indicate relatively small emission reductions in the coming years. The four Nordic countries have different priorities and strategies regarding agricultural N flows and mitigation measures, and therefore they are facing different challenges and barriers. In Norway farm subsidies are used to encourage measures, but these are mainly focused on phosphorus (P). In contrast, Denmark targets N and uses control regulations to reduce losses. In Sweden and Finland, both voluntary actions combined with subsidies help to mitigate both N and P. The aim of this study was to compare the present situation pertaining to agricultural N in the Nordic countries as well as to provide recommendations for policy instruments to achieve cost effective abatement of reactive N from agriculture in the Nordic countries, and to provide guidance to other countries. To further reduce N losses from agriculture, the four countries will have to continue to take different routes. In particular, some countries will need new actions if 2020 and 2030 National Emissions Ceilings Directive (NECD) targets are to be met. Many options are possible, including voluntary action, regulation, taxation and subsidies, but the difficulty is finding the right balance between these policy options for each country. The governments in the Nordic countries should put more attention to the NECD and consult with relevant stakeholders, researchers and farmer's associations on which measures to prioritize to achieve these goals on time. It is important to pick remaining low hanging fruits through use of the most cost effective mitigation measures. We suggest that N application rate and its timing should be in accordance with the crop need and carrying capacity of environmental recipients. Also, the choice of application technology can further reduce the risk of N losses into air and waters. This may require more region-specific solutions and knowledge-based support with tailored information in combination with further targeted subsidies or regulations.

Nitrogen losses from two contrasting agricultural catchments in Norway.

Nitrogen (N) losses from agricultural areas, especially into drinking water and marine environments, attract substantial attention from governments and scientists. This study analysed nitrogen loss from runoff water using long-term monitoring data (1994-2016) from the Skuterud catchment in southeastern Norway and the Naurstad catchment in northern Norway. Precipitation and runoff were lower in the Skuterud catchment than in the Naurstad catchment. However, in the Skuterud catchment, the annual total N (TN) losses ranged from 27 to 68 kg hm-2. High precipitation (1247 mm) in the Naurstad catchment resulted in substantial runoff water (1108 mm) but relatively low total TN losses ranged from 17 to 35 kg hm-2. The proportion of nitrate losses to TN loss was 51-86% and 28-50% in the Skuterud and Naurstad catchments, respectively. Furthermore, the monthly average TN concentrations and nitrate losses had two peaks, in April-May and October, in the Skuterud catchment; however, no significant fluctuations were found in the Naurstad catchment. The contributions of N and runoff water to TN and nitrate losses were calculated using multiple linear regression, and runoff water was the major contributor to TN loss in both catchments. Runoff water was the main factor in the Skuterud catchment, and the nitrate-N concentration was the main factor in the Naurstad catchment.

A review of regulations and guidelines related to winter manure application.

Winter manure application elevates nutrient losses and impairment of water quality as compared to manure applications in other seasons. In conjunction with reviewing global distribution of animal densities, we reviewed worldwide mandatory regulations and voluntary guidelines on efforts to reduce off-site nutrient losses associated with winter manure applications. Most of the developed countries implement regulations or guidelines to restrict winter manure application, which range from a regulative ban to guidelines based upon weather and field management conditions. In contrast, developing countries lack such official directives, despite an increasing animal production industry and concern over water quality. An analysis of five case studies reveals that directives are derived from a common rationale to reduce off-site manure nutrient losses, but they are also affected by local socio-economic and biophysical considerations. Successful programs combine site-specific management strategies along with expansion of manure storage to offer farmers greater flexibility in winter manure management.

Integrated climate-chemical indicators of diffuse pollution from land to water.

Management of agricultural diffuse pollution to water remains a challenge and is influenced by the complex interactions of rainfall-runoff pathways, soil and nutrient management, agricultural landscape heterogeneity and biogeochemical cycling in receiving water bodies. Amplified cycles of weather can also influence nutrient loss to water although they are less considered in policy reviews. Here, we present the development of climate-chemical indicators of diffuse pollution in highly monitored catchments in Western Europe. Specifically, we investigated the influences and relationships between weather processes amplified by the North Atlantic Oscillation during a sharp upward trend (2010-2016) and the patterns of diffuse nitrate and phosphorus pollution in rivers. On an annual scale, we found correlations between local catchment-scale nutrient concentrations in rivers and the influence of larger, oceanic-scale climate patterns defined by the intensity of the North Atlantic Oscillation. These influences were catchment-specific showing positive, negative or no correlation according to a typology. Upward trends in these decadal oscillations may override positive benefits of local management in some years or indicate greater benefits in other years. Developing integrated climate-chemical indicators into catchment monitoring indicators will provide a new and important contribution to water quality management objectives.

Phosphorus transfer at a small catchment in southeastern Brazil: distributed modelling in different land use scenarios / Transferência de fósforo em uma bacia hidrográfica no sudeste brasileiro: modelagem distribuída em diferentes cenários de uso do solo

ABSTRACT Identifying and ranking nutrient loss risk areas are important steps towards integrated catchment management. This study aimed to apply the P index model at the Posses catchment, south of the state of Minas Gerais, Brazil. We applied the P index for the current land use at the Posses catchment and for two hypothetical scenarios: scenario 1, in which P fertilizer was applied to all land uses, except for native forests; and scenario 2, which considered the use of P fertilizer as in scenario 1, and that the Environmental Protection Areas referring to the riparian forests and springs were totally restored. Considering current land use, almost the whole catchment area (91.4%) displayed a low P loss risk. The highest P index was associated to croplands and eucalyptus plantations. Regarding scenario 1, areas under pasture fell into the low (15.1%), medium (45.5%), high (27.1%) and very high (12.3%) P index categories. Environmental Protection Areas on scenario 2 decreased the P loss risk from the scenario 1 in 37.6%. Hence, the model outputs indicate that the reforestation of buffer zones can decrease P loss risk in the case increasing use of P fertilizer. The P index model is a potential support tool to promote judicious use of fertilizers and conservation practices at the Posses catchment.

RESUMO Identificar e classificar áreas quanto ao risco de perda de nutrientes são passos importantes para o manejo integrado de bacia hidrográfica. O objetivo deste estudo foi aplicar o modelo Índice P na bacia hidrográfica das Posses, Extrema-MG. O Índice P foi empregado sobre as condições atuais de uso da terra na bacia hidrográfica das Posses e na simulação de dois cenários: cenário 1, o fertilizante P foi aplicado para todos os usos, exceto para florestas nativas e, cenário 2, além do fertilizante P ser aplicado da mesma forma que no cenário 1, considerou-se que as Áreas de Proteção Ambiental referentes as matas ciliares e nascentes fossem totalmente restituídas. Considerando o uso atual, quase toda a bacia hidrográfica (91,4%) apresentou baixo risco de perda de P. O maior Índice de P foi associado a lavouras e plantações de eucalipto. No cenário 1, as pastagem apresentaram Índice P baixo (15,1%), médio (45,5%), alto (27,1%) e muito alto (12,3%). No cenário 2, as Áreas de Proteção Ambiental promoveram uma redução de 37,6% no risco de perda de P do cenário 1. Dessa forma, os resultados do modelo indicam que o reflorestamento de matas ciliares pode reduzir o risco de perdas de P no caso do aumento do uso de fertilizantes. O Índice P é uma potencial ferramenta para promoção do uso criterioso de fertilizantes e de práticas conservacionistas na bacia hidrográfica das Posses.

Future agriculture with minimized phosphorus losses to waters: Research needs and direction.

The series of papers in this issue of AMBIO represent technical presentations made at the 7th International Phosphorus Workshop (IPW7), held in September, 2013 in Uppsala, Sweden. At that meeting, the 150 delegates were involved in round table discussions on major, predetermined themes facing the management of agricultural phosphorus (P) for optimum production goals with minimal water quality impairment. The six themes were (1) P management in a changing world; (2) transport pathways of P from soil to water; (3) monitoring, modeling, and communication; (4) importance of manure and agricultural production systems for P management; (5) identification of appropriate mitigation measures for reduction of P loss; and (6) implementation of mitigation strategies to reduce P loss. This paper details the major challenges and research needs that were identified for each theme and identifies a future roadmap for catchment management that cost-effectively minimizes P loss from agricultural activities.

Integrated tool for risk assessment in agricultural management of soil erosion and losses of phosphorus and nitrogen.

In recent years, increased attention has been focused on models for risk assessment of source areas in agricultural landscapes. Among the simplest of such models are index tools, which have been developed particularly for phosphorus (P) and to some extent nitrogen (N). However, only a few studies have considered the development of an integrated management strategy that includes erosion and losses of both P and N. Accordingly, the major objective of this study was to initiate the development of an integrated risk assessment tool, consisting of indices for erosion, P and N. The strategy used to create the integrated tool was based on the assumption that all input data at field scale should be readily available either from ordinary agricultural statistics or from the farmer. The results from using the indices in a pilot case study catchment illustrated that losses of P and N had often different critical source areas. The P index was highest for fields with manure application and/or high soil P status or with autumn ploughing, and the N index was highest for fields with excessive N application. The integrated risk was greatest for areas with manure application and some areas with a high erosion risk in combination with high nutrient application rate. Additionally, four different management options were assessed: (1) reduced fertilisation, (2) catch crops, (3) autumn ploughing, and (4) no autumn ploughing. The results verified that reduced nutrient application and stubble during autumn and winter led to the largest decrease in index values, and it was also apparent that management changes in high-risk areas had the greatest impact on the indices. Overall, our findings indicate that the present integrated risk assessment tool with readily available input data can be used to rank farm fields according to risk of soil erosion and losses of P and N.

Freeze-thaw effects on phosphorus loss in runoff from manured and catch-cropped soils.

Concern over nonpoint source P losses from agricultural lands to surface waters in frigid climates has focused attention on the role of freezing and thawing on P loss from catch crops (cover crops). This study evaluated the effect of freezing and thawing on the fate of P in bare soils, soils mixed with dairy manure, and soils with an established catch crop of annual ryegrass (Lolium multiflorum L.). Experiments were conducted to evaluate changes in P runoff from packed soil boxes (100 by 20 by 5 cm) and P leaching from intact soil columns (30 cm deep). Before freezing and thawing, total P (TP) in runoff from catch-cropped soils was lower than from manured and bare soils due to lower erosion. Repeated freezing and thawing significantly increased water-extractable P (WEP) from catch crop biomass and resulted in significantly elevated concentrations of dissolved P in runoff (9.7 mg L(-1)) compared with manured (0.18 mg L(-1)) and bare soils (0.14 mg L(-1)). Catch crop WEP was strongly correlated with the number of freeze-thaw cycles. Freezing and thawing did not change the WEP of soils mixed with manures, nor were differences observed in subsurface losses of P between catch-cropped and bare soils before or after manure application. This study illustrates the trade-offs of establishing catch crops in frigid climates, which can enhance P uptake by biomass and reduce erosion potential but increase dissolved P runoff.

Effect of policy-induced measures on suspended sediments and total phosphorus concentrations from three Norwegian agricultural catchments.

In Norway, agricultural subsidies have, since the late 1980s, been targeted to reduce soil erosion, transfer of soil particles and phosphorus (P) losses. The subsidies led to, e.g., a fourfold increase in the area not ploughed from 1991 to 2001 and a reduced P fertiliser consumption by 60%, especially in areas with high livestock density. Moreover, in the late 1980s agricultural point sources of P from storage facilities of manure and fodder were reduced. In this paper, we evaluate the effect of these policy-induced measures and changed agricultural practices on suspended sediment (SS) and total P (TP) concentrations in three agricultural catchments (1, 3 and 87 km2). Results from the statistical trend analyses for the study period (14-17 years) showed weak, but statistically significant (p<0.05), downward trends in concentrations of TP and SS in the two streams with a high initial TP or SS concentration. In the stream with low initial concentrations of TP and SS, however, no statistically significant trends were shown. The stream with the highest initial concentration of SS showed a statistically significant downward trend in both TP and SS concentrations. The catchment with low initial concentration of SS and medium livestock density showed no detectable trends, while the catchment with high livestock density and low concentrations of SS in the stream showed a statistically significant downward trend in TP concentrations. The results from this study suggest that subsidies and mitigation measures can reduce concentrations of TP and SS in streamwater in highly polluted catchments, although the reduction is small compared to the variations between catchments.