Drought timing and local climate determine the sensitivity of eastern temperate forests to drought.

Projected changes in temperature and drought regime are likely to reduce carbon (C) storage in forests, thereby amplifying rates of climate change. While such reductions are often presumed to be greatest in semi-arid forests that experience widespread tree mortality, the consequences of drought may also be important in temperate mesic forests of Eastern North America (ENA) if tree growth is significantly curtailed by drought. Investigations of the environmental conditions that determine drought sensitivity are critically needed to accurately predict ecosystem feedbacks to climate change. We matched site factors with the growth responses to drought of 10,753 trees across mesic forests of ENA, representing 24 species and 346 stands, to determine the broad-scale drivers of drought sensitivity for the dominant trees in ENA. Here we show that two factors-the timing of drought, and the atmospheric demand for water (i.e., local potential evapotranspiration; PET)-are stronger drivers of drought sensitivity than soil and stand characteristics. Drought-induced reductions in tree growth were greatest when the droughts occurred during early-season peaks in radial growth, especially for trees growing in the warmest, driest regions (i.e., highest PET). Further, mean species trait values (rooting depth and ψ50 ) were poor predictors of drought sensitivity, as intraspecific variation in sensitivity was equal to or greater than interspecific variation in 17 of 24 species. From a general circulation model ensemble, we find that future increases in early-season PET may exacerbate these effects, and potentially offset gains in C uptake and storage in ENA owing to other global change factors.

Loss of ecosystem services due to chronic pollution of forests and surface waters in the Adirondack region (USA).

Sustaining recent progress in mitigating acid pollution could require lower emissions caps that will give rise to real or perceived tradeoffs between healthy ecosystems and inexpensive energy. Because most impacts of acid rain affect ecosystem functions that are poorly understood by policy-makers and the public, an ecosystem services (ES) framework can help to measure how pollution affects human well-being. Focused on the Adirondack region (USA), a global 'hot-spot' of acid pollution, we measured how the chronic acidification of the region's forests, lakes, and streams has affected the potential economic and cultural benefits they provide to society. We estimated that acid-impaired hardwood forests provide roughly half of the potential benefits of forests on moderate to well-buffered soils - an estimated loss of ∼ $10,000 ha-1 in net present value of wood products, maple syrup, carbon sequestration, and visual quality. Acidic deposition has had only nominal impact - relative to the effects of surficial geology and till depth - on the capacity of Adirondack lakes and streams to provide water suitable for drinking. However, as pH declines in lakes, the estimated value of recreational fishing decreases significantly due to loss of desirable fish such as trout. Hatchery stocking programs have partially offset the pollution-mediated losses of fishery value, most effectively in the pH range 4.8-5.5, but are costly and limited in scope. Although any estimates of the monetary 'damages' of acid rain have significant uncertainties, our findings highlight some of the more tangible economic and cultural benefits of pollution mitigation efforts, which continue to face litigation and political opposition.

Impacts of Acidification and Potential Recovery on the Expected Value of Recreational Fisheries in Adirondack Lakes (USA).

We estimated the potential economic value of recreational fisheries in lakes altered by acid pollution in the Adirondack Mountains (USA). We found that the expected value of recreational fisheries has been diminished because of acid deposition but may improve as lakes recover from acidification under low emissions scenarios combined with fish stocking. Fishery value increased with lake pH, from a low of $4.41 angler day-1 in lakes with pH < 4.5, to a high of $38.40 angler day-1 in lakes with pH > 6.5 that were stocked with trout species. Stocking increased the expected fishery value by an average of $11.50 angler day-1 across the entire pH range of the lakes studied. Simulating the future long-term trajectory of a subset of lakes, we found that pH and expected fishery value increased over time in all future emissions scenarios. Differences in estimated value among pollution reduction scenarios were small (<$1 angler day-1) compared to fish stocking scenarios (>$4 angler day-1). Our work provides a basis for assessing the costs and benefits of emissions reductions and management efforts that can hasten recovery of the economic and cultural benefits of ecosystems degraded by chronic pollution.

Modeled effects of soil acidification on long-term ecological and economic outcomes for managed forests in the Adirondack region (USA).

Sugar maple (Acer saccharum) is among the most ecologically and economically important tree species in North America, and its growth and regeneration is often the focus of silvicultural practices in northern hardwood forests. A key stressor for sugar maple (SM) is acid rain, which depletes base cations from poorly-buffered forest soils and has been associated with much lower SM vigor, growth, and recruitment. However, the potential interactions between forest management and soil acidification - and their implications for the sustainability of SM and its economic and cultural benefits - have not been investigated. In this study, we simulated the development of 50 extant SM stands in the western Adirondack region of NY (USA) for 100years under different soil chemical conditions and silvicultural prescriptions. We found that interactions between management prescription and soil base saturation will strongly shape the ability to maintain SM in managed forests. Below 12% base saturation, SM did not regenerate sufficiently after harvest and was replaced mainly by red maple (Acer rubrum) and American beech (Fagus grandifolia). Loss of SM on acid-impaired sites was predicted regardless of whether the shelterwood or diameter-limit prescriptions were used. On soils with sufficient base saturation, models predicted that SM will regenerate after harvest and be sustained for future rotations. We then estimated how these different post-harvest outcomes, mediated by acid impairment of forest soils, would affect the potential monetary value of ecosystem services provided by SM forests. Model simulations indicated that a management strategy focused on syrup production - although not feasible across the vast areas where acid impairment has occurred - may generate the greatest economic return. Although pollution from acid rain is declining, its long-term legacy in forest soils will shape future options for sustainable forestry and ecosystem stewardship in the northern hardwood forests of North America.

Estimating greenhouse gas emissions at the soil-atmosphere interface in forested watersheds of the US Northeast.

Although anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases (GHG: CO2, CH4, N2O) are unequivocally tied to climate change, natural systems such as forests have the potential to affect GHG concentration in the atmosphere. Our study reports GHG emissions as CO2, CH4, N2O, and CO2eq fluxes across a range of landscape hydrogeomorphic classes (wetlands, riparian areas, lower hillslopes, upper hillslopes) in a forested watershed of the Northeastern USA and assesses the usability of the topographic wetness index (TWI) as a tool to identify distinct landscape geomorphic classes to aid in the development of GHG budgets at the soil atmosphere interface at the watershed scale. Wetlands were hot spots of GHG production (in CO2eq) in the landscape owing to large CH4 emission. However, on an areal basis, the lower hillslope class had the greatest influence on the net watershed CO2eq efflux, mainly because it encompassed the largest proportion of the study watershed (54 %) and had high CO2 fluxes relative to other land classes. On an annual basis, summer, fall, winter, and spring accounted for 40, 27, 9, and 24 % of total CO2eq emissions, respectively. When compared to other approaches (e.g., random or systematic sampling design), the TWI landscape classification method was successful in identifying dominant landscape hydrogeomorphic classes and offered the possibility of systematically accounting for small areas of the watershed (e.g., wetlands) that have a disproportionate effect on total GHG emissions. Overall, results indicate that soil CO2eq efflux in the Archer Creek Watershed may exceed C uptake by live trees under current conditions.

Measuring ecosystem capacity to provide regulating services: forest removal and recovery at Hubbard Brook (USA).

In this study, by coupling long-term ecological data with empirical proxies of societal demand for benefits, we measured the capacity of forest watersheds to provide ecosystem services over variable time periods, to different beneficiaries, and in response to discrete perturbations and drivers of change. We revisited one of the earliest ecosystem experiments in North America: the 1963 de-vegetation of a forested catchment at Hubbard Brook Experimental Forest in New Hampshire, USA. Potential benefits of the regulation of water flow, water quality, greenhouse gases, and forest growth were compared between experimental (WS 2) and reference (WS 6) watersheds over a 30-year period. Both watersheds exhibited similarly high capacity for flow regulation, in part because functional loads remained low (i.e., few major storm events) during the de-vegetation period. Drought mitigation capacity, or the maintenance of flows sufficient to satisfy municipal water consumption, was higher in WS 2 due to reduced evapotranspiration associated with loss of plant cover. We also assessed watershed capacity to regulate flows to satisfy different beneficiaries, including hypothetical flood averse and drought averse types. Capacity to regulate water quality was severely degraded during de-vegetation, as nitrate concentrations exceeded drinking water standards on 40% of measurement days. Once forest regeneration began, WS 2 rapidly recovered the capacity to provide safe drinking water, and subsequently mitigated the eutrophication potential of rainwater at a marginally higher level than WS 6. We estimated this additional pollution removal benefit would have to accrue for approximately 65-70 years to offset the net eutrophication cost incurred during forest removal. Overall, our results affirmed the critical role of forest vegetation in water regulation, but also indicated trade-offs associated with forest removal and recovery that partially depend on larger-scale exogenous changes in climate forcing and pollution inputs. We also provide a starting point for integrating long-term ecological research and modeling data into ecosystem services science.

Assessing uncertainty in high-resolution spatial climate data across the US Northeast.

Local and regional-scale knowledge of climate change is needed to model ecosystem responses, assess vulnerabilities and devise effective adaptation strategies. High-resolution gridded historical climate (GHC) products address this need, but come with multiple sources of uncertainty that are typically not well understood by data users. To better understand this uncertainty in a region with a complex climatology, we conducted a ground-truthing analysis of two 4 km GHC temperature products (PRISM and NRCC) for the US Northeast using 51 Cooperative Network (COOP) weather stations utilized by both GHC products. We estimated GHC prediction error for monthly temperature means and trends (1980-2009) across the US Northeast and evaluated any landscape effects (e.g., elevation, distance from coast) on those prediction errors. Results indicated that station-based prediction errors for the two GHC products were similar in magnitude, but on average, the NRCC product predicted cooler than observed temperature means and trends, while PRISM was cooler for means and warmer for trends. We found no evidence for systematic sources of uncertainty across the US Northeast, although errors were largest at high elevations. Errors in the coarse-scale (4 km) digital elevation models used by each product were correlated with temperature prediction errors, more so for NRCC than PRISM. In summary, uncertainty in spatial climate data has many sources and we recommend that data users develop an understanding of uncertainty at the appropriate scales for their purposes. To this end, we demonstrate a simple method for utilizing weather stations to assess local GHC uncertainty and inform decisions among alternative GHC products.

Influence of political opposition and compromise on conservation outcomes in the Tongass National Forest, Alaska.

To understand how a highly contentious policy process influenced a major conservation effort, I examined the origins, compromises, and outcomes of the Alaska National Interest Lands Conservation Act of 1980 (ANILCA) for the Tongass National Forest. Tongass wilderness designation was among the most controversial issues in the ANILCA debate, and it faced strong opposition from influential lawmakers, land managers, and Alaska residents. To investigate the influence of this opposition on Tongass conservation outcomes, I conducted a gap analysis of Tongass reserves and a policy analysis of the ANILCA debate and traced the influence of specific interests through the amendments, negotiations, and resulting compromises needed to enact ANILCA. Overall, I found that Tongass reserves comprise a broadly representative cross-section of ecosystems and species habitats in southeastern Alaska. Redrawn reserve boundaries, industry subsidies, and special access regulations reflected compromises to minimize the impact of wilderness conservation on mining, timber, and local stakeholder interests, respectively. Fragmentation of the Admiralty Island National Monument-the most ecologically valuable and politically controversial reserve-resulted from compromises with Alaskan Native (indigenous peoples of Alaska) corporations and timber interests. Despite language to accommodate "reasonable access" to wilderness reserves, ongoing access limitations highlight the concerns of Alaska residents that opposed ANILCA several decades ago. More broadly, the Tongass case suggests that early and ambitious conservation action may offset strong political opposition; compromises needed to establish key reserves often exacerbate development impacts in unprotected areas; and efforts to minimize social conflicts are needed to safeguard the long-term viability of conservation measures.