Predictors of unsuppressed viral load among adults on follow up of antiretroviral therapy at selected public and private health facilities of Adama town: unmached case-control study.

BACKGROUND: Despite the scale up of antiretroviral therapy (ART), unsuppressed viral load among population taking ART in private and public health facilities is still a public health concern increasing the risk of treatment failure. Studies comprehensively assessing significant predictors of non-suppressed viral load among patients on follow up of AR in public and private health facilities are limited. The objective of the study was to identify predictors of unsuppressed viral load among adult patients taking antiretroviral therapy at selected public and private health facilities of Adama town, East shewa zone, Ethiopia. METHODS: An unmatched case-control study was conducted from April 15 /2021 to May 20/2021. A total sample size of 347 patients consisting 116 cases and 231 controls was selected from electronic database among patients who started ART from September 2015 to August 2020. Data were collected using checklist from patient medical records and analyzed by SPSS. The association of dependent and independent variables was determined using multivariate analysis with 95% confidence interval and P - value in logistic regression model to identify independent predictors. RESULT: From the total 347 participants, 140 (40.3%) of them were males and 207 (59.7%) were females. In multivariate logistic regression, CD4 count < 100 [(AOR:1.22, 95% CI: 1.4-7.3)], CD4 100-200[(AOR: 2.58 95% CI: 1.06-8.28)], Fair Adherence [(AOR: 2.44, 95% CI: 1.67-4.82)], poor adherence [(AOR: 1.11, 95% CI: 1.7-6.73)], History of Cotrimoxazole Therapy (CPT) use and not used [(AOR: 2.60, 95% CI: 1.23-5.48)] and History of drug substitution [(AOR:. 361, 95% CI: .145-.897)] were independent predictors of unsuppressed viral load with the p-value less than 0.05. CONCLUSION AND COMMENDATION: In this study, Baseline CD4, adherence, History of CPT used and history of drug substitution was predictors of unsuppressed viral load. Monitoring immunological response through scheduled CD4 tests is essential to maintain immunity of the patients preventing diseases progression. Intensive adherence support and counseling should conclusively be provided through effective implementation of ART programs by providers would enhance viral suppression ensuring the quality of care and treatment.

Neutrophil-to-Lymphocyte Ratio and Cut-off Values as Predictor of Severity and Mortality in COVID-19 Patients in Millennium COVID-19 Care Center, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia.

Background: Early identification of patients at high risk of poor clinical outcomes is the key to success in saving the lives of patients with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). Neutrophil to Lymphocyte Ratio (NLR) is an easily available and cheap surrogate inflammatory marker, its baseline NLR role in African COVID-19 patients remains to be investigated. The objective of the study aimed to evaluate the role of NLR as a predictor of severity and mortality of COVID-19 patients admitted at the Millennium COVID 19 care center in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia. Methods: A cross-sectional study was conducted on patients with COVID-19 admitted to the Millennium COVID-19 care center from August 1 to October 30, 2021. Receiver Operating Characteristic curve analysis was used to calculate the area under the curve to assess the predictive capacity of NLR on mortality and severity. Multivariable logistic regression analysis was done to identify the association between independent variables and disease outcomes with an Adjusted Odds Ratio (AOR), P-value, and 95% CI for AOR were used for testing significance. Results: The NLR of 9.47 was identified as the optimal cut-off value for predicting mortality with a sensitivity of 88.7% and a specificity of 95.4% (Area Under the Curve (AUC):0.95, 95% CI 0.92-98; P<0.001) and the NLR of 5.86 was an effective threshold value in predicting the severity of disease with a sensitivity of 92.2% and a specificity of 75% (AUC:0.85, 95% CI 0.800-0.905; P<0.001). In multivariable logistic regression analysis, after adjusting for confounding factors, NLR of more than 9.47 and 5.86 was significantly associated with all-cause of in-hospital mortality (AOR=4.73, 95% CI, 1.19-33.68; P<0.02), and severity of disease (AOR=12.98, 95% CI 3.85-43.80; P=0.001), respectively. Conclusion: NLR greater than 9.47 and 5.86 effectively predict mortality and severity of the disease, respectively. It provides an objective input for early decision-making in inpatient management especially in resources limited area.

Dynamics of Mycobacterium tuberculosis-Specific and Nonspecific Immune Responses in Women with Tuberculosis Infection during Pregnancy.

The immune control of tuberculosis (TB) infection could be influenced by pregnancy. To elucidate this, we longitudinally characterized Mycobacterium tuberculosis (Mtb)-specific and nonspecific immune responses in women during pregnancy and postpartum. HIV-uninfected women without past or current active TB, and with blood samples available from the 1st/2nd trimester, 3rd trimester, and 9 months postpartum, were identified at Ethiopian antenatal care clinics. Twenty-two TB+ women and 10 TB- women, defined according to Mtb-stimulated interferon-γ levels (≥0.35 and <0.20 IU/mL, respectively, in the Quantiferon-TB Gold-Plus assay), were included in the study. Longitudinal dynamics of six cytokines (IL-1ra, IL-2, IP-10, MCP-2, MCP-3, and TGF-ß1) were analyzed in supernatants from Mtb-stimulated and unstimulated whole blood. In TB+ women, Mtb-specific expression of IL-2 and IP-10 was higher at 3rd compared to 1st/2nd trimester (median 139 pg/mL versus 62 pg/mL, P = 0.006; 4,999 pg/mL versus 2,310 pg/mL, P = 0.031, respectively), whereas level of Mtb-triggered TGF-ß1 was lower at 3rd compared to 1st/2nd trimester (-6.8 ng/mL versus 2.3 ng/mL, P = 0.020). Unstimulated IL-2, IP-10, and MCP-2 levels were increased postpartum, compared with those noted during pregnancy, in TB+ women. Additionally, postpartum levels of proinflammatory cytokines in unstimulated blood were higher in TB+ women, than in TB- women. None of the women developed active TB during follow-up. Taken together, dynamic changes of Mtb-specific cytokine expression revealed during the 3rd trimester in TB+ women indicate increased Mtb-antigen stimulation at later stages of pregnancy. This could reflect elevated bacterial activity, albeit without transition to active TB, during pregnancy. IMPORTANCE Tuberculosis (TB) is globally one of the most common causes of death, and a quarter of the world's population is estimated to have TB infection. The risk of active TB is increased in connection to pregnancy, a phenomenon that could be due to physiological immune changes. Here, we studied the effect of pregnancy on immune responses triggered in HIV-uninfected women with TB infection, by analyzing blood samples obtained longitudinally during pregnancy and after childbirth. We found that the dynamics of Mtb-specific and nonspecific immune responses changed during pregnancy, especially in later stages of pregnancy, although none of the women followed in this study developed active TB. This suggests that incipient TB, with elevated bacterial activity, occurs during pregnancy, but progression of infection appears to be counteracted by Mtb-specific immune responses. Thus, this study sheds light on immune control of TB during pregnancy, which could be of importance for future intervention strategies.