Predicting remission after internet-delivered psychotherapy in patients with depression using machine learning and multi-modal data.

This study applied supervised machine learning with multi-modal data to predict remission of major depressive disorder (MDD) after psychotherapy. Genotyped adult patients (n = 894, 65.5% women, age 18-75 years) diagnosed with mild-to-moderate MDD and treated with guided Internet-based Cognitive Behaviour Therapy (ICBT) at the Internet Psychiatry Clinic in Stockholm were included (2008-2016). Predictor types were demographic, clinical, process (e.g., time to complete online questionnaires), and genetic (polygenic risk scores). Outcome was remission status post ICBT (cut-off ≤10 on MADRS-S). Data were split into train (60%) and validation (40%) given ICBT start date. Predictor selection employed human expertise followed by recursive feature elimination. Model derivation was internally validated through cross-validation. The final random forest model was externally validated against a (i) null, (ii) logit, (iii) XGBoost, and (iv) blended meta-ensemble model on the hold-out validation set. Feature selection retained 45 predictors representing all four predictor types. With unseen validation data, the final random forest model proved reasonably accurate at classifying post ICBT remission (Accuracy 0.656 [0.604, 0.705], P vs null model = 0.004; AUC 0.687 [0.631, 0.743]), slightly better vs logit (bootstrap D = 1.730, P = 0.084) but not vs XGBoost (D = 0.463, P = 0.643). Transparency analysis showed model usage of all predictor types at both the group and individual patient level. A new, multi-modal classifier for predicting MDD remission status after ICBT treatment in routine psychiatric care was derived and empirically validated. The multi-modal approach to predicting remission may inform tailored treatment, and deserves further investigation to attain clinical usefulness.

Predicting treatment failure in regular care Internet-Delivered Cognitive Behavior Therapy for depression and anxiety using only weekly symptom measures.

OBJECTIVE: Therapist guided Internet-Delivered Cognitive Behavior Therapy (ICBT) is effective, but as in traditional CBT, not all patients improve, and clinicians generally fail to identify them early enough. We predict treatment failure in 12-week regular care ICBT for Depression, Panic disorder and Social anxiety disorder, using only patients' weekly symptom ratings to identify when the accuracy of predictions exceed 2 benchmarks: (a) chance, and (b) empirically derived clinician preferences for actionable predictions. METHOD: Screening, pretreatment and weekly symptom ratings from 4310 regular care ICBT-patients from the Internet Psychiatry Clinic in Stockholm, Sweden was analyzed in a series of regression models each adding 1 more week of data. Final score was predicted in a holdout test sample, which was then categorized into Success or Failure (failure defined as the absence of both remitter and responder status). Classification analyses with Balanced Accuracy and 95% Confidence intervals was then compared to predefined benchmarks. RESULTS: Benchmark 1 (better than chance) was reached 1 week into all treatments. Social anxiety disorder reached Benchmark 2 (> 65%) at week 5, whereas Depression and Panic Disorder reached it at week 6. CONCLUSIONS: For depression, social anxiety and panic disorder, prediction with only patient-rated symptom scores can detect treatment failure 6 weeks into ICBT, with enough accuracy for a clinician to take action. Early identification of failing treatment attempts may be a viable way to increase the overall success rate of existing psychological treatments by providing extra clinical resources to at-risk patients, within a so-called Adaptive Treatment Strategy. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2020 APA, all rights reserved).