Incidence of cirrhosis in Iceland-impact of the TraP HepC nationwide HCV elimination program.

OBJECTIVE: In 2016, a nationwide elimination program for hepatitis C virus (HCV) was initiated in Iceland, entitled Treatment as Prevention for Hepatitis C (TraP HepC), providing unrestricted access to antiviral treatment. The aims were to describe the changes in etiology and epidemiology of cirrhosis in Iceland and to assess the trends in HCV-related cirrhosis following TraP HepC. METHODS: The study included all patients newly diagnosed with cirrhosis in 2016-2022. Diagnosis was based on liver elastography, histology, or 2 of 4 criteria: cirrhosis on imaging, ascites, varices, or elevated international normalized ratio (INR). RESULTS: Over the study period, 342 new cirrhosis patients were identified, 223 (65%) males, median age 62 years. The crude overall incidence was 13.8 cases per 100,000 inhabitants annually. The most common etiologies were alcohol-related liver disease (ALD) (40%), metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD) (28%), and HCV with or without alcohol overconsumption (15%). The number of HCV cirrhosis cases was unusually high in 2016 (n = 23) due to intensified case-finding, but decreased significantly over the study period (p < 0.001) to n = 1 (2021) and n = 2 (2022). The overall 5-year survival was 55% (95% CI 48.9-62.3%). The most common causes of death were hepatocellular carcinoma (26%) and liver failure (25%). CONCLUSION: During the past two decades, the incidence of cirrhosis has increased extraordinarily in Iceland, associated with increased alcohol consumption, obesity, and HCV. ALD and MASLD now collectively make up two thirds of cases in Iceland. Following a nationwide elimination program, incidence of HCV cirrhosis has dropped rapidly in Iceland.

Febrile Children with Pneumonia Have Higher Nasopharyngeal Bacterial Load Than Other Children with Fever.

Febrile episodes are common in children and the most frequent reason for attending emergency services. Although most infections have a benign and self-limiting course, severe and sometimes life-threatening infections occur. This prospective study describes a cohort of children presenting to a single-centre pediatric emergency department (ED) with suspected invasive bacterial infection, and explores the relationships between nasopharyngeal microbes and outcomes. All children attending the ED who had a blood culture taken were offered to participate over a two-year period. In addition to conventional medical care, a nasopharyngeal swab was obtained., which was analysed for respiratory viruses and three bacterial species using a quantitative PCR. Fisher's exact test, Wilcoxon rank sum, and multivariable models were used for statistical analyses of the 196 children (75% younger than four years) who were enrolled and had sufficient data for analysis; 92 had severe infections according to the study protocol, while five had bloodstream infections. Radiologically confirmed pneumonia was the most common severe infection found in 44/92 patients. The presence of respiratory viruses and the carriage of Streptococcus pneumoniae and Haemophilus influenzae were associated with a higher risk of pneumonia. Higher density colonisation with these bacteria were independent risk factors for pneumonia, whereas Moraxella catarrhalis carriage was associated with lower risk. Our data support the hypothesis that higher nasopharyngeal density of pneumococci and H. influenzae could play a role in the development of bacterial pneumonia in children. A preceding viral infection of the respiratory tract may be a trigger and play a role in the progression to severe lower respiratory tract infection.

A nationwide population-based prospective study of cirrhosis in Iceland.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: The incidence of cirrhosis in Iceland has been the lowest in the world with only 3 cases per 100,000 inhabitants. Alcohol consumption has almost doubled in Iceland from 1980 to 2016. Obesity has also risen and hepatitis C virus has spread among people who inject drugs in Iceland. The aim of this study was to evaluate the effects of these risk factors on the incidence and aetiology of cirrhosis in Iceland. METHODS: The study included all patients diagnosed with cirrhosis for the first time during 2010-2015. Diagnosis was based on liver histology or 2 of 4 criteria: cirrhosis on imaging, ascites, varices, and/or elevated INR. RESULTS: Overall, 157 patients were diagnosed, 105 (67%) males, mean age 61 years. The overall incidence was 9.7 cases per 100,000 inhabitants annually. Alcohol was the only underlying cause in 48/157 (31%), non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) in 34/157(22%), and alcohol and hepatitis C together in 23/157(15%) were the most common causes. Only 6% of patients had an unknown cause of cirrhosis. Upon diagnosis, the median model for end-stage liver disease score was 11 (IQR 8-15), 53% were of Child-Pugh class A whereas 61 (39%) had ascites, 11% encephalopathy, and 8% variceal bleeding. In all, 25% of deaths were from HCC and 25% from liver failure. CONCLUSION: A major increase in incidence of cirrhosis has occurred in Iceland associated with increases in alcohol consumption, obesity, and hepatitis C. In a high proportion NAFLD was the aetiology and very few had unknown cause of cirrhosis. The highest death rate was from HCC. LAY SUMMARY: In a nationwide population-based study from Iceland, including all patients diagnosed with cirrhosis of the liver over a period of 5 years, we found the incidence of new cases had increased 3-fold compared with a previous study 20 years ago. The increase is attributable to increased alcohol consumption, an epidemic of diabetes and obesity, and infection with the hepatitis C virus. Furthermore, we found that with thorough investigations, a specific cause for cirrhosis could be found in 94% of patients. Patients with cirrhosis frequently die of liver cancer and other complications related to their liver disease.