Assessment of ability realization using the 4th version of the Spinal Cord Independence Measure.

CONTEXT: Change in ability realization reflects the main contribution of rehabilitation to improvement in the performance of daily activities after spinal cord lesions (SCL). OBJECTIVE: To adapt a Spinal Cord Ability Realization Measurement Index (SCI-ARMI) formula to the new Spinal Cord Independence Measure version 4 (SCIM4). METHODS: Using data from 156 individuals for whom American Spinal Injury Association Motor Score (AMS) and SCIM4 scores were collected, we obtained an estimate for the highest possible SCIM4 given the patient's AMS value, using the 95th percentile of SCIM4 values at discharge from rehabilitation (SCIM95) for patients with any given AMS at discharge. We used the statistical software environment R to implement the quantile regression method for linear and quadratic formulas. We also compared the computed model with the SCIM95 model obtained using data from the present study group, positioned in the SCIM95 formula developed for SCIM3. RESULTS: The coefficients of the computed SCIM95 formula based on SCIM4 scores were statistically non-significant, which hypothetically reflects the small sample relative to the goal of estimating SCIM4 95th percentile. Predicting the ability using SCIM4 scores positioned in the SCIM95 formula used for SCIM3, however, yielded SCIM95 values, which are very close to those of the new SCIM95 formula (Mean difference 2.16, 95% CI = 1.45, 4.90). CONCLUSION: The SCI-ARMI formula, which is based on the SCIM95 formula developed for SCIM3, is appropriate for estimating SCI-ARMI at present, when SCIM4 scores are available. When sufficient additional data accumulates, it will be appropriate to introduce a modified SCI-ARMI formula.

Discussion on "Optimal test procedures for multiple hypotheses controlling the familywise expected loss" by Willi Maurer, Frank Bretz, and Xiaolei Xun.

We discuss three issues. In the first part, we discuss the criteria emphasized by Maurer, Bretz, and Xun, warning that it modifies the per comparison error rate that does not address the concerns raised by multiple testing. In the second part, we strengthen the optimality results developed in the paper, based on our recent results. In the third part, we highlight the potentially important role that the use of weights may have in practice and discuss the difficulties in assigning weights that convey the importance in the gain and loss functions, especially as it pertains to multiple endpoints.

Developing a length of stay prediction model for newborns, achieving better accuracy with greater usability.

BACKGROUND: One in ten newborn children is born prematurely. The elongated length of stay (LOS) of these children in the Neonatal Intensive Care Unit (NICU) has important implications on hospital occupancy figures, healthcare and management costs, as well as the psychology of parents. In order to allow accurate planning and resource allocation, this study aims to create a generalizable and robust model to predict the NICU LOS of preterm newborns. METHODS: Data were collected from a large tertiary center NICU between 2011 and 2018 and relates to 5,362 newborns. The selected model was externally validated using a data set of 8,768 newborns from another tertiary center NICU. This report compares several models, such as Random Forest (RF), quantile RF, and other feature selection methods, including LASSO and AIC step-forward selection. In addition, a novel step-forward selection based on False Discovery Rate (FDR) for quantile regression is presented and evaluated. RESULTS: A high-orderquantile regression model for predicting preterm newborns' LOS that uses only four features available at birth had more attractive properties than other richer ones. The model achieved a Mean Absolute Error (MAE) of 6.26 days on the internal validation set (average LOS 27.04) and an MAE of 6.04 days on the external validation set (average LOS 29.32). The suggested model surpassed the accuracy obtained by models in the literature. It is shown empirically that the FDR-based selection has better properties than the AIC-based step-forward selection approach. CONCLUSION: This paper demonstrates a process to create a predictive model for NICU LOS in preterm newborns, where each step is reasoned. We obtain a simple and robust model for NICU LOS prediction, which achieves far better results than the current model used for financing NICUs. Utilizing this model, we have created an easy-to-use online web application to ease parents' worries and to assist NICU management: https://tzviel.shinyapps.io/calcuLOS.

A multi-lab experimental assessment reveals that replicability can be improved by using empirical estimates of genotype-by-lab interaction.

The utility of mouse and rat studies critically depends on their replicability in other laboratories. A widely advocated approach to improving replicability is through the rigorous control of predefined animal or experimental conditions, known as standardization. However, this approach limits the generalizability of the findings to only to the standardized conditions and is a potential cause rather than solution to what has been called a replicability crisis. Alternative strategies include estimating the heterogeneity of effects across laboratories, either through designs that vary testing conditions, or by direct statistical analysis of laboratory variation. We previously evaluated our statistical approach for estimating the interlaboratory replicability of a single laboratory discovery. Those results, however, were from a well-coordinated, multi-lab phenotyping study and did not extend to the more realistic setting in which laboratories are operating independently of each other. Here, we sought to test our statistical approach as a realistic prospective experiment, in mice, using 152 results from 5 independent published studies deposited in the Mouse Phenome Database (MPD). In independent replication experiments at 3 laboratories, we found that 53 of the results were replicable, so the other 99 were considered non-replicable. Of the 99 non-replicable results, 59 were statistically significant (at 0.05) in their original single-lab analysis, putting the probability that a single-lab statistical discovery was made even though it is non-replicable, at 59.6%. We then introduced the dimensionless "Genotype-by-Laboratory" (GxL) factor-the ratio between the standard deviations of the GxL interaction and the standard deviation within groups. Using the GxL factor reduced the number of single-lab statistical discoveries and alongside reduced the probability of a non-replicable result to be discovered in the single lab to 12.1%. Such reduction naturally leads to reduced power to make replicable discoveries, but this reduction was small (from 87% to 66%), indicating the small price paid for the large improvement in replicability. Tools and data needed for the above GxL adjustment are publicly available at the MPD and will become increasingly useful as the range of assays and testing conditions in this resource increases.

Decoding human spontaneous spiking activity in medial temporal lobe from scalp EEG.

Linking scalp electroencephalography (EEG) signals and spontaneous firing activity from deep nuclei in humans is not trivial. To examine this, we analyzed simultaneous recordings of scalp EEG and unit activity in deeply located sites recorded overnight from patients undergoing pre-surgical invasive monitoring. We focused on modeling the within-subject average unit activity of two medial temporal lobe areas: amygdala and hippocampus. Linear regression model correlates the units' average firing activity to spectral features extracted from the EEG during wakefulness or non-REM sleep. We show that changes in mean firing activity in both areas and states can be estimated from EEG (Pearson r > 0.2, p≪0.001). Region specificity was shown with respect to other areas. Both short- and long-term fluctuations in firing rates contributed to the model accuracy. This demonstrates that scalp EEG frequency modulations can predict changes in neuronal firing rates, opening a new horizon for non-invasive neurological and psychiatric interventions.

A novel performance scoring quantification framework for stress test set-ups.

Stress tests, e.g., the cardiac stress test, are standard clinical screening tools aimed to unmask clinical pathology. As such stress tests indirectly measure physiological reserves. The term reserve has been developed to account for the dis-junction, often observed, between pathology and clinical manifestation. It describes a physiological capacity that is utilized in demanding situations. However, developing a new and reliable stress test based screening tool is complex, prolonged, and relies extensively on domain knowledge. We propose a novel distributional-free machine-learning framework, the Stress Test Performance Scoring (STEPS) framework, to model expected performance in a stress test. A performance scoring function is trained with measures taken during the performance in a given task while exploiting information regarding the stress test set-up and subjects' medical state. Multiple ways of aggregating performance scores at different stress levels are suggested and are examined with an extensive simulation study. When applied to a real-world data example, an AUC of 84.35[95%CI: 70.68 - 95.13] was obtained for the STEPS framework to distinguish subjects with neurodegeneration from controls. In summary, STEPS improved screening by exploiting existing domain knowledge and state-of-the-art clinical measures. The STEPS framework can ease and speed up the production of new stress tests.

The role of models in the covid-19 pandemic.

Mathematical and statistical models have played an important role in the analysis of data from COVID-19. They are important for tracking the progress of the pandemic, for understanding its spread in the population, and perhaps most significantly for forecasting the future course of the pandemic and evaluating potential policy options. This article describes the types of models that were used by research teams in Israel, presents their assumptions and basic elements, and illustrates how they were used, and how they influenced decisions. The article grew out of a "modelists' dialog" organized by the Israel National Institute for Health Policy Research with participation from some of the leaders in the local modeling effort.

Reliability Validity and Responsiveness of the Spinal Cord Independence Measure 4th Version in a Multicultural Setup.

OBJECTIVE: To examine the fourth version of the Spinal Cord Independence Measure for reliability and validity. DESIGN: Partly blinded comparison with the criterion standard Spinal Cord Independence Measure III, and between examiners and examinations. SETTING: A multicultural cohort from 19 spinal cord injury units in 11 countries. PARTICIPANTS: A total of 648 patients with spinal cord injury. INTERVENTION: Assessment with Spinal Cord Independence Measure (SCIM IV) and Spinal Cord Independence Measure (SCIM III) on admission to inpatient rehabilitation and before discharge. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: SCIM IV interrater reliability, internal consistency, correlation with and difference from SCIM III, and responsiveness. RESULTS: Total agreement between examiners was above 80% on most SCIM IV tasks. All Kappa coefficients were above 0.70 and statistically significant (P<.001). Pearson's coefficients of the correlation between the examiners were above 0.90, and intraclass correlation coefficients were above 0.90. Cronbach's alpha was above 0.96 for the entire SCIM IV, above 0.66 for the subscales, and usually decreased when an item was eliminated. Reliability values were lower for the subscale of respiration and sphincter management, and on admission than at discharge. SCIM IV and SCIM III mean values were very close, and the coefficients of Pearson correlation between them were 0.91-0.96 (P<.001). The responsiveness of SCIM IV was not significantly different from that of SCIM III in most of the comparisons. CONCLUSIONS: The validity, reliability, and responsiveness of SCIM IV, which was adjusted to assess specific patient conditions or situations that SCIM III does not address, and which includes more accurate definitions of certain scoring criteria, are very good and quite similar to those of SCIM III. SCIM IV can be used for clinical and research trials, including international multi-center studies, and its group scores can be compared with those of SCIM III.

Hypotheses on a tree: new error rates and testing strategies.

We introduce a multiple testing procedure that controls global error rates at multiple levels of resolution. Conceptually, we frame this problem as the selection of hypotheses that are organized hierarchically in a tree structure. We describe a fast algorithm and prove that it controls relevant error rates given certain assumptions on the dependence between the p-values. Through simulations, we demonstrate that the proposed procedure provides the desired guarantees under a range of dependency structures and that it has the potential to gain power over alternative methods. Finally, we apply the method to studies on the genetic regulation of gene expression across multiple tissues and on the relation between the gut microbiome and colorectal cancer.

Exploration in the Presence of Mother in Typically and Non-typically Developing Pre-walking Human Infants.

In previous phenotyping studies of mouse and rat exploratory behavior we developed a computational exploratory data analysis methodology including videotaping, tracking, preparatory methods for customized data analysis, a methodology for improving the replicability of results across laboratories, and algorithmic design for exposing the natural reference places (origins) used by animals during exploration. We then measured the animals' paths in reference to these origins, revealing robust, highly replicable modules termed excursions, which are performed from the origin into the environment and back to the origin. Origin-related exploration has been claimed to be phylogenetically conserved across the vertebrates. In the current study we use the same methodology to examine whether origin-related exploration has also been conserved in human pre-walking typically developing (TD) and a group of non-typically developing (NTD) infants in the presence of their stationary mother. The NTDs had been referred to a center for the early treatment of autism in infancy by pediatric neurologists and clinicians. The TDs established a reference place (origin) at mother's place and exhibited a modular partitioning of their path into excursions performed in reference to mother, visiting her often, and reaching closely. In contrast, the NTDs did not establish a distinct origin at the mother's place, or any other place, and did not partition the exploratory path into excursions. Once this difference is validated, the differences between the human infant groups may serve as an early referral tool for child development specialists. The absence of distinct modularity in human infants at risk of autism spectrum disorder can guide the search for animal models for this disorder in translational research.

Multi-domain potential biomarkers for post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) severity in recent trauma survivors.

Contemporary symptom-based diagnosis of post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) largely overlooks related neurobehavioral mechanisms and relies entirely on subjective interpersonal reporting. Previous studies associating biomarkers with PTSD have mostly used symptom-based diagnosis as the main outcome measure, disregarding the wide variability and richness of PTSD phenotypical features. Here, we aimed to computationally derive potential biomarkers that could efficiently differentiate PTSD subtypes among recent trauma survivors. A three-staged semi-unsupervised method ("3C") was used to firstly categorize individuals by current PTSD symptom severity, then derive clusters based on clinical features related to PTSD (e.g. anxiety and depression), and finally to classify participants' cluster membership using objective multi-domain features. A total of 256 features were extracted from psychometrics, cognitive functioning, and both structural and functional MRI data, obtained from 101 adult civilians (age = 34.80 ± 11.95; 51 females) evaluated within 1 month of trauma exposure. The features that best differentiated cluster membership were assessed by importance analysis, classification tree, and ANOVA. Results revealed that entorhinal and rostral anterior cingulate cortices volumes (structural MRI domain), in-task amygdala's functional connectivity with the insula and thalamus (functional MRI domain), executive function and cognitive flexibility (cognitive testing domain) best differentiated between two clusters associated with PTSD severity. Cross-validation established the results' robustness and consistency within this sample. The neural and cognitive potential biomarkers revealed by the 3C analytics offer objective classifiers of post-traumatic morbidity shortly following trauma. They also map onto previously documented neurobehavioral mechanisms associated with PTSD and demonstrate the usefulness of standardized and objective measurements as differentiating clinical sub-classes shortly after trauma.

Novel Alzheimer's disease subtypes identified using a data and knowledge driven strategy.

The population of adults with Alzheimer's disease (AD) varies in needs and outcomes. The heterogeneity of current AD diagnostic subgroups impedes the use of data analytics in clinical trial design and translation of findings into improved care. The purpose of this project was to define more clinically-homogeneous groups of AD patients and link clinical characteristics with biological markers. We used an innovative big data analysis strategy, the 3C strategy, that incorporates medical knowledge into the data analysis process. A large set of preprocessed AD Neuroimaging Initiative (ADNI) data was analyzed with 3C. The data analysis yielded 6 new disease subtypes, which differ from the assigned diagnosis types and present different patterns of clinical measures and potential biomarkers. Two of the subtypes, "Anosognosia dementia" and "Insightful dementia", differentiate between severe participants based on clinical characteristics and biomarkers. The "Uncompensated mild cognitive impairment (MCI)" subtype, demonstrates clinical, demographic and imaging differences from the "Affective MCI" subtype. Differences were also observed between the "Worried Well" and "Healthy" clusters. The use of data-driven analysis yielded sub-phenotypic clinical clusters that go beyond current diagnoses and are associated with biomarkers. Such homogenous sub-groups can potentially form the basis for enhancement of brain medicine research.

Hierarchical Data-Driven Analysis of Clinical Symptoms Among Patients With Parkinson's Disease.

Mutations in the LRRK2 and GBA genes are the most common inherited causes of Parkinson's disease (PD). Studies exploring phenotypic differences based on genetic status used hypothesis-driven data-gathering and statistical-analyses focusing on specific symptoms, which may influence the validity of the results. We aimed to explore phenotypic expression in idiopathic PD (iPD) patients, G2019S-LRRK2-PD, and GBA-PD using a data-driven approach, allowing screening of large numbers of features while controlling selection bias. Data was collected from 1525 Ashkenazi Jews diagnosed with PD from the Tel-Aviv Medical center; 161 G2019S-LRRK2-PD, 222 GBA-PD, and 1142 iPD (no G2019S-LRRK2 or any of the 7 AJ GBA mutations tested). Data included 771 measures: demographics, cognitive, physical and neurological functions, performance-based measures, and non-motor symptoms. The association of the genotypes with each of the measures was tested while accounting for age at motor symptoms onset, gender, and disease duration; p-values were reported and corrected in a hierarchical approach for an average over the selected measures false discovery rate control, resulting in 32 measures. GBA-PD presented with more severe symptoms expression while LRRK2-PD had more benign symptoms compared to iPD. GBA-PD presented greater cognitive and autonomic involvement, more frequent hyposmia and REM sleep behavior symptoms while these were less frequent among LRRK2-PD compared to iPD. Using a data-driven analytical approach strengthens earlier studies and extends them to portray a possible unique disease phenotype based on genotype among AJ PD. Such findings could help direct a more personalized therapeutic approach.

Current and Potential Approaches for Defining Disease Signatures: a Systematic Review.

Identifying disease signatures in order to facilitate accurate diagnosis/treatment has been the focus of research efforts in the last decade. However, the term "disease signature" has not been properly defined, resulting in inconsistencies between studies, as well as limited ability to fully utilize the tools/information available in the evolving field of healthcare big data. Research was conducted according to the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Review and Meta-analyses (PRISMA) guidelines. The search (in PubMed, Cochrane, and Web of Science) was limited to English articles published up to 31/12/2016. The search string was "disease signature" OR "disease signatures" OR "disease fingerprint" OR "disease fingerprints" OR "subtype signature" OR "subtype signatures" OR "subgroup signature" OR "subgroup signatures." The full text of the articles was reviewed to determine the meaning of the phrase "disease signature" as well as the context of its use. Of 285 articles identified in the search, 129 were included in the final analysis. The term disease signature was first found in an article from 2001. In the last 10 years, the use of the term increased by approximately ninefold, which is double the general increase in the number of published articles. Only one article attempted to define the term. The two major medical fields where the term was used were oncology (31%) and neurology (20%); 71% of the identified articles used a single biomarker to define the term, 13% of the articles used a pair of biomarkers, and 16% used signatures with multiple biomarker; in 42% of the identified articles, genomic biomarkers were used for the signature, in 17% measurements of biochemical compounds in body fluids, and in 10%, changes in imaging studies were used for the signature. Our findings identified a lack of consistency in defining the term disease signature. We suggest a novel hierarchical multidimensional concept for this term that would combine both current approaches for identifying diseases (one focusing on undesired effects of the disease and the other on its causes). This model can improve disease signature definition consistency which will enable to generalize and classify diseases, resulting in more precise treatments and better outcomes. Ultimately, this model could lead to developing a statistical confidence in a disease signature that would allow physicians/patients to estimate the precision of the diagnosis, which, in turn, may have important implications on patients' prognosis and treatment.

The Importance of Nonlinear Transformations Use in Medical Data Analysis.

BACKGROUND: The accumulation of data and its accessibility through easier-to-use platforms will allow data scientists and practitioners who are less sophisticated data analysts to get answers by using big data for many purposes in multiple ways. Data scientists working with medical data are aware of the importance of preprocessing, yet in many cases, the potential benefits of using nonlinear transformations is overlooked. OBJECTIVE: Our aim is to present a semi-automated approach of symmetry-aiming transformations tailored for medical data analysis and its advantages. METHODS: We describe 10 commonly encountered data types used in the medical field and the relevant transformations for each data type. Data from the Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative study, Parkinson's disease hospital cohort, and disease-simulating data were used to demonstrate the approach and its benefits. RESULTS: Symmetry-targeted monotone transformations were applied, and the advantages gained in variance, stability, linearity, and clustering are demonstrated. An open source application implementing the described methods was developed. Both linearity of relationships and increase of stability of variability improved after applying proper nonlinear transformation. Clustering simulated nonsymmetric data gave low agreement to the generating clusters (Rand value=0.681), while capturing the original structure after applying nonlinear transformation to symmetry (Rand value=0.986). CONCLUSIONS: This work presents the use of nonlinear transformations for medical data and the importance of their semi-automated choice. Using the described approach, the data analyst increases the ability to create simpler, more robust and translational models, thereby facilitating the interpretation and implementation of the analysis by medical practitioners. Applying nonlinear transformations as part of the preprocessing is essential to the quality and interpretability of results.

Vertical exploration and dimensional modularity in mice.

Exploration is a central component of animal behaviour studied extensively in rodents. Previous tests of free exploration limited vertical movement to rearing and jumping. Here, we attach a wire mesh to the arena wall, allowing vertical exploration. This provides an opportunity to study the morphogenesis of behaviour along the vertical dimension, and examine the context in which it is performed. In the current set-up, the mice first use the doorway as a point reference for establishing a borderline linear path along the circumference of the arena floor, and then use this path as a linear reference for performing horizontal forays towards the centre (incursions) and vertical forays on the wire mesh (ascents). Vertical movement starts with rearing on the wall, and commences with straight vertical ascents that increase in extent and complexity. The mice first reach the top of the wall, then mill about within circumscribed horizontal sections, and then progress horizontally for increasingly longer distances on the upper edge of the wire mesh. Examination of the sequence of borderline segments, incursions and ascents reveals dimensional modularity: an initial series (bout) of borderline segments precedes alternating bouts of incursions and bouts of ascents, thus exhibiting sustained attention to each dimension separately. The exhibited separate growth in extent and in complexity of movement and the sustained attention to each of the three dimensions disclose the mice's modular perception of this environment and validate all three as natural kinds.

Relación entre el mes de nacimiento y la prevalencia de enfermedades crónicas / On relationship between patients' month of birth and the prevalence of chronic diseases

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Reproducibility and replicability of rodent phenotyping in preclinical studies.

The scientific community is increasingly concerned with the proportion of published "discoveries" that are not replicated in subsequent studies. The field of rodent behavioral phenotyping was one of the first to raise this concern, and to relate it to other methodological issues: the complex interaction between genotype and environment; the definitions of behavioral constructs; and the use of laboratory mice and rats as model species for investigating human health and disease mechanisms. In January 2015, researchers from various disciplines gathered at Tel Aviv University to discuss these issues. The general consensus was that the issue is prevalent and of concern, and should be addressed at the statistical, methodological and policy levels, but is not so severe as to call into question the validity and the usefulness of model organisms as a whole. Well-organized community efforts, coupled with improved data and metadata sharing, have a key role in identifying specific problems and promoting effective solutions. Replicability is closely related to validity, may affect generalizability and translation of findings, and has important ethical implications.