Impact of mismatches in HbA1c vs glucose values on the diagnostic classification of diabetes and prediabetes.

AIMS: To determine whether HbA1c mismatches (HbA1c levels that are higher or lower than expected for the average glucose levels in different individuals) could lead to errors if diagnostic classification is based only on HbA1c levels. METHODS: In a cross-sectional study, 3106 participants without known diabetes underwent a 75-g oral glucose tolerance test (fasting glucose and 2-h glucose) and a 50-g glucose challenge test (1-h glucose) on separate days. They were classified by oral glucose tolerance test results as having: normal glucose metabolism; prediabetes; or diabetes. Predicted HbA1c was determined from the linear regression modelling the relationship between observed HbA1c and average glucose (mean of fasting glucose and 2-h glucose from the oral glucose tolerance test, and 1-h glucose from the glucose challenge test) within oral glucose tolerance test groups. The haemoglobin glycation index was calculated as [observed - predicted HbA1c ], and divided into low, intermediate and high haemoglobin glycation index mismatch tertiles. RESULTS: Those participants with higher mismatches were more likely to be black, to be men, to be older, and to have higher BMI (all P<0.001). Using oral glucose tolerance test criteria, the distribution of normal glucose metabolism, prediabetes and diabetes was similar across mismatch tertiles; however, using HbA1c criteria, the participants with low mismatches were classified as 97% normal glucose metabolism, 3% prediabetes and 0% diabetes, i.e. mostly normal, while those with high mismatches were classified as 13% normal glucose metabolism, 77% prediabetes and 10% diabetes, i.e. mostly abnormal (P<0.001). CONCLUSIONS: Measuring only HbA1c could lead to under-diagnosis in people with low mismatches and over-diagnosis in those with high mismatches. Additional oral glucose tolerance tests and/or fasting glucose testing to complement HbA1c in diagnostic classification should be performed in most individuals.

Clinical Outcomes Among Patients With Drug-resistant Tuberculosis Receiving Bedaquiline- or Delamanid-Containing Regimens.

BACKGROUND: Bedaquiline and delamanid are newly available drugs for treating multidrug-resistant tuberculosis (MDR-TB); however, there are limited data guiding their use and no comparison studies. METHODS: We conducted a prospective, observational study among patients with MDR-TB in Georgia who were receiving a bedaquiline- or delamanid-based treatment regimen. Monthly sputum cultures, minimal inhibitory concentration testing, and adverse event monitoring were performed. Primary outcomes were culture conversion rates and clinical outcomes. Targeted maximum likelihood estimation and super learning were utilized to produce a covariate-adjusted proportion of outcomes for each regimen. RESULTS: Among 156 patients with MDR-TB, 100 were enrolled and 95 were receiving a bedaquiline-based (n = 64) or delamanid-based (n = 31) regimen. Most were male (82%) and the median age was 38 years. Rates of previous treatment (56%) and cavitary disease (61%) were high. The most common companion drugs included linezolid, clofazimine, cycloserine, and a fluoroquinolone. The median numbers of effective drugs received among patients on bedaquiline-based (4; interquartile range [IQR], 4-4) and delamanid-based (4; IQR, 3.5-5) regimens were similar. Rates of acquired drug resistance were significantly higher among patients receiving delamanid versus bedaquiline (36% vs 10%, respectively; P < .01). Adjusted rates of sputum culture conversion at 2 months (67% vs 47%, respectively; P = .10) and 6 months (95% vs 74%, respectively; P < .01), as well as more favorable clinical outcomes (96% vs 72%, respectively; P < .01), were higher among patients receiving bedaquiline versus delamanid. CONCLUSIONS: Among patients with MDR-TB, bedaquiline-based regimens were associated with higher rates of sputum culture conversion, more favorable outcomes, and a lower rate of acquired drug resistance versus delamanid-based regimens.

Doubly robust nonparametric inference on the average treatment effect.

Doubly robust estimators are widely used to draw inference about the average effect of a treatment. Such estimators are consistent for the effect of interest if either one of two nuisance parameters is consistently estimated. However, if flexible, data-adaptive estimators of these nuisance parameters are used, double robustness does not readily extend to inference. We present a general theoretical study of the behaviour of doubly robust estimators of an average treatment effect when one of the nuisance parameters is inconsistently estimated. We contrast different methods for constructing such estimators and investigate the extent to which they may be modified to also allow doubly robust inference. We find that while targeted minimum loss-based estimation can be used to solve this problem very naturally, common alternative frameworks appear to be inappropriate for this purpose. We provide a theoretical study and a numerical evaluation of the alternatives considered. Our simulations highlight the need for and usefulness of these approaches in practice, while our theoretical developments have broad implications for the construction of estimators that permit doubly robust inference in other problems.

Acute disseminated encephalomyelitis in China, Singapore and Japan: a comparison with the USA.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: Ethnicity-related differences in the incidence of acute disseminated encephalomyelitis (ADEM) and other demyelinating diseases including multiple sclerosis and neuromyelitis optica spectrum disorders have been reported. Little is reported on the influence of ethnicity and geographical location in ADEM. METHODS: Medical records of patients who presented with ADEM (ICD-9 323.61 and 323.81) at large referral hospitals in China, Singapore and Japan (years 1992-2015) were retrospectively reviewed and data were collected in a centralized database. Presenting features and outcomes of ADEM were compared between this multi-country Asian cohort and a uniformly collected US cohort using risk differences and risk ratios. Both cohorts were standardized to a 35% pediatric population to facilitate the comparison. RESULTS: There were 83 Asian patients (48 male, 16 pediatric) followed for a median of 2 (25th-75th percentile 1-10) months. Asian patients exhibited a 26% higher prevalence of spinal cord involvement on magnetic resonance imaging [95% confidence interval (CI) 0-52%; P = 0.05; 63% vs. 37%], a 39% lower prevalence of preceding events (95% CI 12-65%; P < 0.01; 33% vs. 72%) and a 23% lower prevalence of corpus callosum involvement (95% CI 7-39%; P < 0.01; 8% vs. 31%). No difference was observed between the two cohorts in the probability of relapse over the first year after disease onset. CONCLUSIONS: It is hypothesized that the high proportion of Asian patients with spinal cord lesions relates to genetic vulnerability or the higher incidence of neuromyelitis optica spectrum disorders in Asia or could be a spurious association. ADEM presentations most probably vary across geographical settings or ethnicities.

Genetic Diversity and Protective Efficacy of the RTS,S/AS01 Malaria Vaccine.

BACKGROUND: The RTS,S/AS01 vaccine targets the circumsporozoite protein of Plasmodium falciparum and has partial protective efficacy against clinical and severe malaria disease in infants and children. We investigated whether the vaccine efficacy was specific to certain parasite genotypes at the circumsporozoite protein locus. METHODS: We used polymerase chain reaction-based next-generation sequencing of DNA extracted from samples from 4985 participants to survey circumsporozoite protein polymorphisms. We evaluated the effect that polymorphic positions and haplotypic regions within the circumsporozoite protein had on vaccine efficacy against first episodes of clinical malaria within 1 year after vaccination. RESULTS: In the per-protocol group of 4577 RTS,S/AS01-vaccinated participants and 2335 control-vaccinated participants who were 5 to 17 months of age, the 1-year cumulative vaccine efficacy was 50.3% (95% confidence interval [CI], 34.6 to 62.3) against clinical malaria in which parasites matched the vaccine in the entire circumsporozoite protein C-terminal (139 infections), as compared with 33.4% (95% CI, 29.3 to 37.2) against mismatched malaria (1951 infections) (P=0.04 for differential vaccine efficacy). The vaccine efficacy based on the hazard ratio was 62.7% (95% CI, 51.6 to 71.3) against matched infections versus 54.2% (95% CI, 49.9 to 58.1) against mismatched infections (P=0.06). In the group of infants 6 to 12 weeks of age, there was no evidence of differential allele-specific vaccine efficacy. CONCLUSIONS: These results suggest that among children 5 to 17 months of age, the RTS,S vaccine has greater activity against malaria parasites with the matched circumsporozoite protein allele than against mismatched malaria. The overall vaccine efficacy in this age category will depend on the proportion of matched alleles in the local parasite population; in this trial, less than 10% of parasites had matched alleles. (Funded by the National Institutes of Health and others.).