How well can body size represent effects of the environment on demographic rates? Disentangling correlated explanatory variables.

Demographic rates are shaped by the interaction of past and current environments that individuals in a population experience. Past environments shape individual states via selection and plasticity, and fitness-related traits (e.g. individual size) are commonly used in demographic analyses to represent the effect of past environments on demographic rates. We quantified how well the size of individuals captures the effects of a population's past and current environments on demographic rates in a well-studied experimental system of soil mites. We decomposed these interrelated sources of variation with a novel method of multiple regression that is useful for understanding nonlinear relationships between responses and multicollinear explanatory variables. We graphically present the results using area-proportional Venn diagrams. Our novel method was developed by combining existing methods and expanding upon them. We showed that the strength of size as a proxy for the past environment varied widely among vital rates. For instance, in this organism with an income breeding life history, the environment had more effect on reproduction than individual size, but with substantial overlap indicating that size encompassed some of the effects of the past environment on fecundity. This demonstrates that the strength of size as a proxy for the past environment can vary widely among life-history processes within a species, and this variation should be taken into consideration in trait-based demographic or individual-based approaches that focus on phenotypic traits as state variables. Furthermore, the strength of a proxy will depend on what state variable(s) and what demographic rate is being examined; that is, different measures of body size (e.g. length, volume, mass, fat stores) will be better or worse proxies for various life-history processes.

Stressful environments can indirectly select for increased longevity.

Longevity is modulated by a range of conserved genes in eukaryotes, but it is unclear how variation in these genes contributes to the evolution of longevity in nature. Mutations that increase life span in model organisms typically induce trade-offs which lead to a net reduction in fitness, suggesting that such mutations are unlikely to become established in natural populations. However, the fitness consequences of manipulating longevity have rarely been assessed in heterogeneous environments, in which stressful conditions are encountered. Using laboratory selection experiments, we demonstrate that long-lived, stress-resistant Caenorhabditis elegans age-1(hx546) mutants have higher fitness than the wild-type genotype if mixed genotype populations are periodically exposed to high temperatures when food is not limited. We further establish, using stochastic population projection models, that the age-1(hx546) mutant allele can confer a selective advantage if temperature stress is encountered when food availability also varies over time. Our results indicate that heterogeneity in environmental stress may lead to altered allele frequencies over ecological timescales and indirectly drive the evolution of longevity. This has important implications for understanding the evolution of life-history strategies.

Biodiversity tracks temperature over time.

The geographic distribution of life on Earth supports a general pattern of increase in biodiversity with increasing temperature. However, some previous analyses of the 540-million-year Phanerozoic fossil record found a contrary relationship, with paleodiversity declining when the planet warms. These contradictory findings are hard to reconcile theoretically. We analyze marine invertebrate biodiversity patterns for the Phanerozoic Eon while controlling for sampling effort. This control appears to reverse the temporal association between temperature and biodiversity, such that taxonomic richness increases, not decreases, with temperature. Increasing temperatures also predict extinction and origination rates, alongside other abiotic and biotic predictor variables. These results undermine previous reports of a negative biodiversity-temperature relationship through time, which we attribute to paleontological sampling biases. Our findings suggest a convergence of global scale macroevolutionary and macroecological patterns for the biodiversity-temperature relationship.

A long-term association between global temperature and biodiversity, origination and extinction in the fossil record.

The past relationship between global temperature and levels of biological diversity is of increasing concern due to anthropogenic climate warming. However, no consistent link between these variables has yet been demonstrated. We analysed the fossil record for the last 520 Myr against estimates of low latitude sea surface temperature for the same period. We found that global biodiversity (the richness of families and genera) is related to temperature and has been relatively low during warm 'greenhouse' phases, while during the same phases extinction and origination rates of taxonomic lineages have been relatively high. These findings are consistent for terrestrial and marine environments and are robust to a number of alternative assumptions and potential biases. Our results provide the first clear evidence that global climate may explain substantial variation in the fossil record in a simple and consistent manner. Our findings may have implications for extinction and biodiversity change under future climate warming.