Modeling prevention behaviors during the COVID-19 pandemic using Bayesian belief networks and protection motivation theory.

Prevention behaviors are important in mitigating the transmission of COVID-19. The protection motivation theory (PMT) links perceptions of risk and coping ability with the act of adopting prevention behaviors. The goal of this research is to test the application of the PMT in predicting adoption of prevention behaviors during the COVID-19 pandemic. Two research objectives are achieved to explore motivating factors for adopting prevention behaviors. (1) The first objective is to identify variables that are strong predictors of prevention behavior adoption. A data-driven approach is used to train Bayesian belief network (BBN) models using results of a survey of N = 7797 $N=7797$ participants reporting risk perceptions and prevention behaviors during the COVID-19 pandemic. A large set of models are generated and analyzed to identify significant variables. (2) The second objective is to develop models based on the PMT to predict prevention behaviors. BBN models that predict prevention behaviors were developed using two approaches. In the first approach, a data-driven methodology trains models using survey data alone. In the second approach, expert knowledge is used to develop the structure of the BBN using PMT constructs. Results demonstrate that trust and experience with COVID-19 were important predictors for prevention measure adoption. Models that were developed using the PMT confirm relationships between coping appraisal, threat appraisal, and protective behaviors. Data-driven and PMT-based models perform similarly well, confirming the use of PMT in this context. Predicting adoption of social distancing behaviors provides insight for developing policies during pandemics.

Using advanced metering infrastructure data to evaluate consumer compliance with water advisories during a water service interruption.

Water main breaks disrupt services provided by utilities and result in Water Service Interruptions (WSIs). Water utilities can manage WSIs through water advisories, which request that consumers limit their water use. The performance of water advisories depends on consumer compliance and decisions to conserve water. This research explores customer compliance with water advisories using water consumption data collected through Advanced Metering Infrastructure (AMI). AMI provides high temporal and spatial resolution of water consumption data, which is analyzed to identify changes in water use behaviors. This research explores water use changes during a major water main break in Orange County, North Carolina, that caused a significant WSI, limiting water supply for more than 80,000 people. Customers were asked to reduce water use to essential purposes only and to boil water over the course of two days in November 2018. This research analyzes hourly consumption data to evaluate water consumption trends during the WSI and in response to water advisories. Statistical analysis is used to estimate the number of consumers who complied with utility notifications and to evaluate the volume of water saved. Regression analysis is applied to explore compliance across different user segments. Results provide insight about the level and variation of water conservation that can be expected during a WSI.

Using a digital twin to explore water infrastructure impacts during the COVID-19 pandemic.

During the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, the daily pattern of activities changed dramatically for people across the globe, as they socially distanced and worked remotely. Changes in daily routines created changes in water consumption patterns. Significant changes in water demands can affect the operation of water distribution systems, resulting in new patterns of flow, with implications for water age, pressure, and energy consumption. This research develops a digital twin to couple Advanced Metering Infrastructure (AMI) data with a hydraulic model to assess impacts on infrastructure due to changes in water demands associated with the COVID-19 pandemic for a case study. Using 2019 and COVID-19 modeling scenarios, the hydraulic model was executed to evaluate changes to water quality based on water age, pressure across nodes in the network, and the energy required by the system to distribute potable water. A water supply interruption event was modeled as a water main break to assess network resiliency for 2019 and COVID-19 demands. A digital twin provides the capabilities to explore and visualize emerging consumption patterns and their effects on the functioning of water systems, providing valuable analyses for water utility managers and insight for optimizing infrastructure operations and planning for long-term impacts.

Review of Modeling Methodologies for Managing Water Distribution Security.

Water distribution systems are vulnerable to hazards that threaten water delivery, water quality, and physical and cybernetic infrastructure. Water utilities and managers are responsible for assessing and preparing for these hazards, and researchers have developed a range of computational frameworks to explore and identify strategies for what-if scenarios. This manuscript conducts a review of the literature to report on the state of the art in modeling methodologies that have been developed to support the security of water distribution systems. First, the major activities outlined in the emergency management framework are reviewed; the activities include risk assessment, mitigation, emergency preparedness, response, and recovery. Simulation approaches and prototype software tools are reviewed that have been developed by government agencies and researchers for assessing and mitigating four threat modes, including contamination events, physical destruction, interconnected infrastructure cascading failures, and cybernetic attacks. Modeling tools are mapped to emergency management activities, and an analysis of the research is conducted to group studies based on methodologies that are used and developed to support emergency management activities. Recommendations are made for research needs that will contribute to the enhancement of the security of water distribution systems.