Estimating All-Cause Deaths Averted in the First Two Years of the COVID-19 Vaccination Campaign in Italy.

Comparing deaths averted by vaccination campaigns is a crucial public health endeavour. Excess all-cause deaths better reflect the impact of the pandemic than COVID-19 deaths. We used a seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average with exogenous factors model to regress daily all-cause deaths on annual trend, seasonality, and environmental temperature in three Italian regions (Lombardy, Marche and Sicily) from 2015 to 2019. The model was used to forecast excess deaths during the vaccinal period (December 2020-October 2022). We used the prevented fraction to estimate excess deaths observed during the vaccinal campaigns, those which would have occurred without vaccination, and those averted by the campaigns. At the end of the vaccinal period, the Lombardy region proceeded with a more intensive COVID-19 vaccination campaign than other regions (on average, 1.82 doses per resident, versus 1.67 and 1.56 in Marche and Sicily, respectively). A higher prevented fraction of all-cause deaths was consistently found in Lombardy (65% avoided deaths, as opposed to 60% and 58% in Marche and Sicily). Nevertheless, because of a lower excess mortality rate found in Lombardy compared to Marche and Sicily (12, 24 and 23 per 10,000 person-years, respectively), a lower rate of averted deaths was observed (22 avoided deaths per 10,000 person-years, versus 36 and 32 in Marche and Sicily). In Lombardy, early and full implementation of adult COVID-19 vaccination was associated with the largest reduction in all-cause deaths compared to Marche and Sicily.

Improved prediction of 5-year mortality by updating the chronic related score for risk profiling in the general population: lessons from the italian region of Lombardy.

Objective: The aim of this study was to improve the performance of the Chronic Related Score (CReSc) in predicting mortality and healthcare needs in the general population. Methods: A population-based study was conducted, including all beneficiaries of the Regional Health Service of Lombardy, Italy, aged 18 years or older in January 2015. Each individual was classified as exposed or unexposed to 69 candidate predictors measured before baseline, updated to include four mental health disorders. Conditions independently associated with 5-year mortality were selected using the Cox regression model on a random sample including 5.4 million citizens. The predictive performance of the obtained CReSc-2.0 was assessed on the remaining 2.7 million citizens through discrimination and calibration. Results: A total of 35 conditions significantly contributed to the CReSc-2.0, among which Alzheimer's and Parkinson's diseases, dementia, heart failure, active neoplasm, and kidney dialysis contributed the most to the score. Approximately 36% of citizens suffered from at least one condition. CReSc-2.0 discrimination performance was remarkable, with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.83. Trends toward increasing short-term (1-year) and long-term (5-year) rates of mortality, hospital admission, hospital stay, and healthcare costs were observed as CReSc-2.0 increased. Conclusion: CReSC-2.0 represents an improved tool for stratifying populations according to healthcare needs.

Vulnerability Predictors of Post-Vaccine SARS-CoV-2 Infection and Disease-Empirical Evidence from a Large Population-Based Italian Platform.

We aimed to identify individual features associated with increased risk of post-vaccine SARS-CoV-2 infection and severe COVID-19 illness. We performed a nested case-control study based on 5,350,295 citizens from Lombardy, Italy, aged ≥ 12 years who received a complete anti-COVID-19 vaccination from 17 January 2021 to 31 July 2021, and followed from 14 days after vaccine completion to 11 November 2021. Overall, 17,996 infections and 3023 severe illness cases occurred. For each case, controls were 1:1 (infection cases) or 1:10 (severe illness cases) matched for municipality of residence and date of vaccination completion. The association between selected predictors (sex, age, previous occurrence of SARS-CoV-2 infection, type of vaccine received, number of previous contacts with the Regional Health Service (RHS), and the presence of 59 diseases) and outcomes was assessed by using multivariable conditional logistic regression models. Sex, age, previous SARS-CoV-2 infection, type of vaccine and number of contacts with the RHS were associated with the risk of infection and severe illness. Moreover, higher odds of infection and severe illness were significantly associated with 14 and 34 diseases, respectively, among those investigated. These results can be helpful to clinicians and policy makers for prioritizing interventions.

Balancing Benefits and Harms of COVID-19 Vaccines: Lessons from the Ongoing Mass Vaccination Campaign in Lombardy, Italy.

Background. Limited evidence exists on the balance between the benefits and harms of the COVID-19 vaccines. The aim of this study is to compare the benefits and safety of mRNA-based (Pfizer-BioNTech and Moderna) and adenovirus-vectored (Oxford-AstraZeneca) vaccines in subpopulations defined by age and sex. Methods. All citizens who are newly vaccinated from 27 December 2020 to 3 May 2021 are matched to unvaccinated controls according to age, sex, and vaccination date. Study outcomes include the events that are expected to be avoided by vaccination (i.e., hospitalization and death from COVID-19) and those that might be increased after vaccine inoculation (i.e., venous thromboembolism). The incidence rate ratios (IRR) of vaccinated and unvaccinated citizens are separately estimated within strata of sex, age category and vaccine type. When suitable, number needed to treat (NNT) and number needed to harm (NNH) are calculated to evaluate the balance between the benefits and harm of vaccines within each sex and age category. Results. In total, 2,351,883 citizens are included because they received at least one dose of vaccine (755,557 Oxford-AstraZeneca and 1,596,326 Pfizer/Moderna). A reduced incidence of COVID-19-related outcomes is observed with a lowered incidence rate ranging from 55% to 89% and NNT values ranging from 296 to 3977. Evidence of an augmented incidence of harm-related outcomes is observed only for women aged <50 years within 28 days after Oxford-AstraZeneca (being the corresponding adjusted IRR of 2.4, 95% CI 1.1−5.6, and NNH value of 23,207, 95% CI 10,274−89,707). Conclusions. A favourable balance between benefits and harms is observed in the current study, even among younger women who received Oxford-AstraZeneca.

Protective action of natural and induced immunization against the occurrence of delta or alpha variants of SARS-CoV-2 infection: a test-negative case-control study.

BACKGROUND: The evolution of SARS-CoV-2 has led to the emergence of several new variants, and few data are available on the impact of vaccination on SARS-CoV-2 variants. We aimed to assess the association between natural (previous infection) and induced (partial or complete vaccination) exposure to SARS-CoV-2 and the onset of new infection supported by the delta variant, and of comparing it with that supported by alpha. METHODS: We performed a test-negative case-control study, by linking population-based registries of confirmed diagnoses of infection with SARS-CoV-2, vaccinations against Covid-19 and healthcare utilization databases of the Italian Lombardy Region. Four hundred ninety-six persons who between 27 December 2020 and 16 July 2021 had an infection by the delta variant were 1:1 matched with citizens affected by alphavariant and 1:10 matched with persons who had a negative molecular test, according to gender, age and date of molecular ascertainment. We used a conditional logistic regression for estimating relative risk reduction of either variants associated with natural and/or induced immunization and corresponding 95% confidence interval (CI). RESULTS: Previous infection was associated with 91% (95% CI 85% to 95%) reduced relative risk of reinfection, without evidence of significant differences between delta and alpha cases (p=0.547). Significant lower vaccinal protection against delta than alpha variant infection was observed with reduced relative risk associated with partial vaccination respectively of 29% (7% to 45%), and 62% (48% to 71%) (p=0.001), and with complete vaccination respectively of 75% (66% to 82%) and 90% (85% to 94%) (p=0.003). CONCLUSIONS: Lower protection towards infections caused by the delta variant with respect to alpha variant was noticed, even after the completion of the vaccination cycle. This finding would support efforts to maximize both vaccine uptake with two doses and fulfilment with individual protection measures, especially as the delta variant is rampant worldwide presently.

Eight Good Reasons for Careful Monitoring and Evaluation of the Vaccine Campaign against COVID-19: Lessons Learned through the Lombardy Experience for Dealing with Next Challenges.

BACKGROUND: Using the knowledge gained during the first eleven months of the vaccine campaign in Lombardy, Italy, we provide an overview of the benefits of using reliable, complete, and rapidly available observational data to monitor the progress of the vaccine strategy. METHODS: A population-based platform was implemented by linking four registries reporting individual data on: (i) date, type, and dose of vaccine dispensed; (ii) SARS-CoV-2 infections and hospital admissions and deaths due to COVID-19; (iii) inpatient diagnoses and outpatient services supplied by the Regional Health Services (RHS); and the (iv) health registry reporting and updating data on patient status. Background, methods, findings, and implications of eight COVID-19 relevant questions are reported. RESULTS: Before starting the vaccine campaign, we identified high-risk individuals who need to be prioritized. During the vaccine campaign, we: (i) monitored the trend in the speed of the vaccine campaign progression and the number of prevented clinical outcomes; (ii) verified that available vaccines work in real-life, assessed their effectiveness-harm profile, and measured their reduced effectiveness against the delta variant. Finally, we studied the reduced effectiveness of the vaccine over time and identified risk factors of post-vaccine infection and severe illness. CONCLUSIONS: The correct use of rapidly available observational data of good quality and completeness generates reliable evidence to promptly inform patients and policymakers.

Persistence of protection against SARS-CoV-2 clinical outcomes up to 9 months since vaccine completion: a retrospective observational analysis in Lombardy, Italy.

BACKGROUND: Scarce information is available on the duration of the protective effect of COVID-19 vaccination against the risk of SARS-CoV-2 infection and its severe clinical consequences. We investigated the effect of time since vaccine completion on the SARS-CoV-2 infection and its severe forms. METHODS: In this retrospective observational analysis using the vaccination campaign integrated platform of the Italian region of Lombardy, 5 351 085 individuals aged 12 years or older who received complete vaccination from Jan 17 to July 31, 2021, were followed up from 14 days after vaccine completion until Oct 20, 2021. Changes over time in outcome rates (ie, SARS-CoV-2 infection and severe illness among vaccinated individuals) were analysed with age-period-cohort models. Trends in vaccine effectiveness (ie, outcomes comparison in vaccinated and unvaccinated individuals) were also measured. FINDINGS: Overall, 14 140 infections and 2450 severe illnesses were documented, corresponding to incidence rates of 6·7 (95% CI 6·6-6·8) and 1·2 (1·1-1·2) cases per 10 000 person-months, respectively. From the first to the ninth month since vaccine completion, rates increased from 4·6 to 10·2 infections, and from 1·0 to 1·7 severe illnesses every 10 000 person-months. These figures correspond to relative reduction of vaccine effectiveness of 54·9% (95% CI 48·3-60·6) for infection and of 40·0% (16·2-57·0) for severe illness. The increasing infection rate was greater for individuals aged 60 years or older who received adenovirus-vectored vaccines (from 4·0 to 23·5 cases every 10 000 person-months). The increasing severe illness rates were similar for individuals receiving mRNA-based vaccines (from 1·1 to 1·5 every 10 000 person-months) and adenovirus-vectored vaccines (from 0·5 to 0·9 every 10 000 person-months). INTERPRETATION: Although the risk of infection after vaccination, and even more of severe illness, remains low, the gradual increase in clinical outcomes related to SARS-CoV-2 infection suggests that the booster campaign should be accelerated and that social and individual protection measures against COVID-19 spread should not be abandoned. FUNDING: None.