A mixed linear model controlling for case underascertainment across multiple cancer registries estimated time trends in survival.

OBJECTIVES: Large temporal and geographical variation in survival rates estimated from epidemiological cancer registries coupled with heterogeneity in death certificate only (DCO) notifications makes it difficult to interpret trends in survival. The aim of our study is to introduce a method for estimating such trends while accounting for heterogeneity in DCO notifications in a cancer site-specific manner. STUDY DESIGN AND SETTING: We used the data of 4.0 million cancer cases notified in 14 German epidemiological cancer registries. Annual 5-year relative survival rates from 2002 through 2013 were estimated, and proportions of DCO notifications were recorded. "DCO-excluded" survival rates were regressed on DCO proportions and calendar years using a mixed linear model with cancer registry as a random effect. Based on this model, trends in survival rates were estimated for Germany at 0% DCO. RESULTS: For most cancer sites and age groups, we estimated significant positive trends in survival. Age-standardized survival for all cancers combined increased by 7.1% units for women and 10.8% units for men. CONCLUSION: The described method could be used to estimate trends in cancer survival based on the data from epidemiological cancer registries with differing DCO proportions and with changing DCO proportions over time.

German cancer statistics 2004.

BACKGROUND: For years the Robert Koch Institute (RKI) has been annually pooling and reviewing the data from the German population-based cancer registries and evaluating them together with the cause-of-death statistics provided by the statistical offices. Traditionally, the RKI periodically estimates the number of new cancer cases in Germany on the basis of the available data from the regional cancer registries in which registration is complete; this figure, in turn, forms the basis for further important indicators. METHODS: This article gives a brief overview of current indicators - such as incidence, prevalence, mortality, survival rates - on the most common types of cancer, as well as important ratios on the risks of developing and dying of cancer in Germany. RESULTS: According to the latest estimate, there were a total of 436,500 new cancer cases in Germany in 2004. The most common cancer in men is prostate cancer with over 58,000 new cases per annum, followed by colorectal and lung cancer. In women, breast cancer remains the most common cancer with an estimated 57,000 new cases every year, also followed by colorectal cancer. These and further findings on selected cancer sites can be found in the current brochure on "Cancer in Germany", which is regularly published by the RKI together with the Association of Population-based Cancer Registries in Germany (GEKID). In addition, the RKI made cancer-prevalence estimates and calculated current morbidity and mortality risks at the federal level for the first time. According to these figures, the 5-year partial prevalence - i.e. the total number of cancer patients diagnosed over the past five years who are currently still living - exceeds 600,000 in men; the figure is about the same among women. Here, too, the most common cancers are prostate cancer in men and breast cancer in women. The lifetime risk of developing cancer, which is more related to the individual, is estimated to be higher among men (48.5%) than among women (40.3%). In roughly rounded figures, therefore, about every second person in Germany develops cancer in the course of their lives. One in four men and one in five women die of cancer. CONCLUSIONS: In recent years, population-based cancer registration in Germany has come significantly closer to the aim of the complete, nationwide coverage of cancer. The continuous improvements in the data situation help describe cancer development in Germany.