The physical and qualitative analysis of fluctuations in air and vapour concentrations in a porous medium.

This work presents the development and physical analysis of a sweat transport model that couples the fluctuations in air and vapour concentrations, and temperature, in a one-dimensional porous clothing assembly. The clothing is exposed to inherent time-varying conditions due to variations in the body temperature and ambient conditions. These fluctuations are governed by a coupled system of nonlinear relaxation-transport-diffusion PDEs of Petrovskii parabolic type. A condition for the well-posedness of the resulting system of equations is derived. It is shown that the energy of the diffusion part of the system is exponentially decreasing. The boundedness and stability of the system of equations is thus confirmed. The variational formulation of the system is derived, and the existence and uniqueness of a weak solution is demonstrated analytically. This system is shown to conserve positivity. The difficulty of obtaining an analytical solution due to the complexity of the problem, urges for a numerical approach. A comparison of three cases is made using the Crank-Nicolson finite difference method (FDM). Numerical experiments show the existence of singular coefficient matrices at the site of phase change. Furthermore, the steady-state profiles of temperature, air and vapour concentrations influence the attenuation of fluctuations. Numerical results verify the analytical findings of this work.

Intensity of vortices: from soap bubbles to hurricanes.

By using a half soap bubble heated from below, we obtain large isolated single vortices whose properties as well as their intensity are measured under different conditions. By studying the effects of rotation of the bubble on the vortex properties, we found that rotation favors vortices near the pole. Rotation also inhibits long life time vortices. The velocity and vorticity profiles of the vortices obtained are well described by a Gaussian vortex. Besides, the intensity of these vortices can be followed over long time spans revealing periods of intensification accompanied by trochoidal motion of the vortex center, features which are reminiscent of the behavior of tropical cyclones. An analysis of this intensification period suggests a simple relation valid for both the vortices observed here and for tropical cyclones.

Hurricane track forecast cones from fluctuations.

Trajectories of tropical cyclones may show large deviations from predicted tracks leading to uncertainty as to their landfall location for example. Prediction schemes usually render this uncertainty by showing track forecast cones representing the most probable region for the location of a cyclone during a period of time. By using the statistical properties of these deviations, we propose a simple method to predict possible corridors for the future trajectory of a cyclone. Examples of this scheme are implemented for hurricane Ike and hurricane Jimena. The corridors include the future trajectory up to at least 50 h before landfall. The cones proposed here shed new light on known track forecast cones as they link them directly to the statistics of these deviations.

Thermal convection and emergence of isolated vortices in soap bubbles.

A novel thermal convection cell consisting of half a soap bubble heated at the equator is introduced to study thermal convection and the movement of isolated vortices. The soap bubble, subject to stratification, develops thermal convection at its equator. A particular feature of this cell is the emergence of isolated vortices. These vortices resemble hurricanes or cyclones and similarities between our observed structures and these natural objects are found. This is brought forth through a study of the mean square displacement of these objects showing signs of superdiffusion.