Multilevel-growth modelling for the study of sustainability transitions.

Sustainability Transitions (ST) is a complex phenomenon, encompassing environmental, societal and economic aspects. Its study requires a proper investigation, with the identification of a robust indicator and the definition of a suitable method of analysis. To identify the most informative geographical boundaries for analysing ST pathways, we consider the Carbon Emission Intensity (CEI) and estimate a four-level growth model to study its pattern over time for all the EU regions. We apply this model to a novel longitudinal dataset that covers CEI data of European regions at four different geographical scales (state, areas, regions, and provinces) over a nine-year timespan. This approach aims at supporting the decision-makers in developing more effective sustainability transitions policies across Europe, especially focusing on regions and overcoming the well-known "one-size fits all" approach.•The unconditional growth model has been applied to a multi-level structure considering four levels, defined by three geographical scales and time.•The ideal structure of the model would have required five levels, but the sample size of the dataset made the application computationally unfeasible;•The application of the model allowed to identify patterns of stability and change over time of the variable amongst different geographical units.

Industrial carbon emission intensity: A comprehensive dataset of European regions.

The dataset has been developed within the framework of the EU EIT-Climate Kic Flagship Project "Re-Industrialise" and it includes data of Carbon Emission Intensity (CEI) from industrial sources for the European Regions. CEI is considered as a proxy for analysing the Industrial Sustainability Transition pathways and is calculated as the ratio between CO2 equivalent emissions (CO2e) and Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of the industrial sector over a nine-year timespan, i.e. from 2008 to 2016. CO2e data at plant level have been retrieved from EU Emission Trading System (EU ETS) register and aggregated at different geographical scales, corresponding to the nested structure of NUTS (Nomenclature of Territorial Units for Statistics), proposed by EUROSTAT. Industrial GDP data have been selected from EUROSTAT database to match the industrial sectors covered by EU ETS.

Dynamic latent variable models for the analysis of cognitive abilities in the elderly population.

Cognitive functioning is a key indicator of overall individual health. Identifying factors related to cognitive status, especially in later life, is of major importance. We concentrate on the analysis of the temporal evolution of cognitive abilities in the elderly population. We propose to model the individual cognitive functioning as a multidimensional latent process that accounts also for the effects of individual-specific characteristics (gender, age, and years of education). The proposed model is specified within the generalized linear latent variable framework, and its efficient estimation is obtained using a recent approximation technique, called dimensionwise quadrature. It provides a fast and streamlined approximate inference for complex models, with better or no degradation in accuracy compared with standard techniques. The methodology is applied to the cognitive assessment data from the Health and Retirement Study combined with the Asset and Health Dynamic study in the years between 2006 and 2010. We evaluate the temporal relationship between two dimensions of cognitive functioning, that is, episodic memory and general mental status. We find a substantial influence of the former on the evolution of the latter, as well as evidence of severe consequences on both cognitive abilities among less-educated and older individuals.

The Latent Variable-Autoregressive Latent Trajectory Model: A General Framework for Longitudinal Data Analysis.

In recent years, longitudinal data have become increasingly relevant in many applications, heightening interest in selecting the best longitudinal model to analyze them. Too often traditional practice rather than substantive theory guide the specific model selected. This opens the possibility that alternative models might better correspond to the data. In this paper, we present a general longitudinal model that we call the Latent Variable Autoregressive Latent Trajectory (LV-ALT) model that includes most other longitudinal models with continuous outcomes as special cases. It is capable of specializing to most models dictated by theory or prior research while having the capacity to compare them to alternative ones. If there is little guidance on the best model, the LV-ALT provides a way to determine the appropriate empirical match to the data. We present the model, discuss its identification and estimation, and illustrate how the LV-ALT reveals new things about a widely used empirical example.