The spatiotemporal evolution of compound impacts from lava flow and tephra fallout on buildings: lessons from the 2021 Tajogaite eruption (La Palma, Spain).

The simultaneous or sequential occurrence of several hazards-be they of natural or anthropogenic sources-can interact to produce unexpected compound hazards and impacts. Since success in responding to volcanic crises is often conditional on accurate identification of spatiotemporal patterns of hazard prior to an eruption, ignoring these interactions can lead to a misrepresentation or misinterpretation of the risk and, during emergencies, ineffective management priorities. The 2021 eruption of Tajogaite volcano on the island of La Palma, Canary Islands (Spain), was an 86 day-long hybrid explosive-effusive eruption that demonstrated the challenges of managing volcanic crises associated with the simultaneous emission of lava, tephra and volcanic gases. Here, we present the result of a small-scale impact assessment conducted during three-field deployments to investigate how tephra fallout and lava flow inundation interacted to cause compound physical impact on buildings. The study area was a neighbourhood of 30 buildings exposed to tephra fallout during the entire eruption and by a late-stage, short-lived lava flow. Observations highlight, on one hand, the influence of clean-up operations and rainfall on the impact of tephra fallout and, on the other hand, the importance of the dynamics of lava flow emplacement in controlling impact mechanisms. Overall, results provide an evidence-based insight into impact sequences when two primary hazards are produced simultaneously and demonstrate the importance of considering this aspect when implementing risk mitigation strategies for future long-lasting, hybrid explosive-effusive eruptions in urban environments. Supplementary Information: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s00445-023-01700-w.

How well do concentric radii approximate population exposure to volcanic hazards?

Effective risk management requires accurate assessment of population exposure to volcanic hazards. Assessment of this exposure at the large-scale has often relied on circular footprints of various sizes around a volcano to simplify challenges associated with estimating the directionality and distribution of the intensity of volcanic hazards. However, to date, exposure values obtained from circular footprints have never been compared with modelled hazard footprints. Here, we compare hazard and population exposure estimates calculated from concentric radii of 10, 30 and 100 km with those calculated from the simulation of dome- and column-collapse pyroclastic density currents (PDCs), large clasts, and tephra fall across Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) 3, 4 and 5 scenarios for 40 volcanoes in Indonesia and the Philippines. We found that a 10 km radius-considered by previous studies to capture hazard footprints and populations exposed for VEI ≤ 3 eruptions-generally overestimates the extent for most simulated hazards, except for column collapse PDCs. A 30 km radius - considered representative of life-threatening VEI ≤ 4 hazards-overestimates the extent of PDCs and large clasts but underestimates the extent of tephra fall. A 100 km radius encapsulates most simulated life-threatening hazards, although there are exceptions for certain combinations of scenario, source parameters, and volcano. In general, we observed a positive correlation between radii- and model-derived population exposure estimates in southeast Asia for all hazards except dome collapse PDC, which is very dependent upon topography. This study shows, for the first time, how and why concentric radii under- or over-estimate hazard extent and population exposure, providing a benchmark for interpreting radii-derived hazard and exposure estimates. Supplementary information: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s00445-023-01686-5.

Integrating hazard, exposure, vulnerability and resilience for risk and emergency management in a volcanic context: the ADVISE model.

Risk assessments in volcanic contexts are complicated by the multi-hazard nature of both unrest and eruption phases, which frequently occur over a wide range of spatial and temporal scales. As an attempt to capture the multi-dimensional and dynamic nature of volcanic risk, we developed an integrAteD VolcanIc risk asSEssment (ADVISE) model that focuses on two temporal dimensions that authorities have to address in a volcanic context: short-term emergency management and long-term risk management. The output of risk assessment in the ADVISE model is expressed in terms of potential physical, functional, and systemic damage, determined by combining the available information on hazard, exposed systems and vulnerability. The ADVISE model permits qualitative, semi-quantitative and quantitative risk assessment depending on the final objective and on the available information. The proposed approach has evolved over a decade of study on the volcanic island of Vulcano (Italy), where recent signs of unrest combined with uncontrolled urban development and significant seasonal variations of exposed population result in highly dynamic volcanic risk. For the sake of illustration of all the steps of the ADVISE model, we focus here on the risk assessment of the transport system in relation to the tephra fallout associated with a long-lasting Vulcanian cycle. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s13617-021-00108-5.