A Latent Profile Analysis of Violent Offenders Based on PCL-R Factor Scores: Criminogenic Needs and Recidivism Risk.

Clinicians and theorists have often proposed the two psychopathic subtypes of "primary" and "secondary" psychopathy, with recent research indicating some empirical support for both psychopathy subtypes, though the findings across studies are far from uniform. For the current study, latent profile analysis was used to investigate if homogeneous latent classes exist within a sample of 215 adult male violent offenders from Berlin, Germany. The age of the offenders at the time of the index offense ranged from 19 to 59 years. The results indicated a solution with four latent classes, which we refer to as prototypical psychopaths (LC1), callous-conning offenders (LC2), sociopathic or dyssocial offenders (LC3), and general offenders (LC4). Validation of the four subtypes involved examination of differences on recidivism risk; criminogenic needs; and general, violent, and sexual reoffending. The results also are discussed in terms of the issue of treatment amenability.

The development of the crime scene behavior risk measure for sexual offense recidivism.

The inclusion of crime scene behavior in actuarial risk assessment so far is insufficient, unsystematic, and neglecting factors theoretically relevant to sexual recidivism. Therefore, the goal of the current study was to develop a brief actuarial risk scale based on crime scene characteristics. The development sample consisted of data (police databases, paper records, and the National Conviction Registry) from 955 male sexual offenders (77% German citizens, 20% foreign nationals, mean age = 35 years, convicted for sexual abuse and/or sexual violence). Further, the independent cross-validation-sample consisted of data from 77 sexual offenders. The 7 items that are comprised by the Crime Scene Behavior Risk (CBR) measure showed high predictive accuracy for sexual recidivism with little variation between the development (c index = .72) and the replication sample (c index = .74). Further, the CBR was found to provide significant incremental validity and improve the predictive accuracy of the Static-99R risk assessment tool. Given the predictive and incremental validity of the CBR it is suggested that sexual offender risk assessment can be improved by utilizing crime scene behavior. The CBR is currently being used in addition to the Static-99R by the State Office of Criminal Investigations in Berlin to prioritize released sexual offenders for police supervision.

Interpreting multiple risk scales for sex offenders: evidence for averaging.

This study tested 3 decision rules for combining actuarial risk instruments for sex offenders into an overall evaluation of risk. Based on a 9-year follow-up of 940 adult male sex offenders, we found that Rapid Risk Assessment for Sex Offender Recidivism (RRASOR), Static-99R, and Static-2002R predicted sexual, violent, and general recidivism and provided incremental information for the prediction of all 3 outcomes. Consistent with previous findings, the incremental effect of RRASOR was positive for sexual recidivism but negative for violent and general recidivism. Averaging risk ratios was a promising approach to combining these risk scales, showing good calibration between predicted (E) and observed (O) recidivism rates (E/O index = 0.93, 95% CI [0.79, 1.09]) and good discrimination (area under the curve = 0.73, 95% CI [0.69, 0.77]) for sexual recidivism. As expected, choosing the lowest (least risky) risk tool resulted in underestimated sexual recidivism rates (E/O = 0.67, 95% CI [0.57, 0.79]) and choosing the highest (riskiest) resulted in overestimated risk (E/O = 1.37, 95% CI [1.17, 1.60]). For the prediction of violent and general recidivism, the combination rules provided similar or lower discrimination compared with relying solely on the Static-99R or Static-2002R. The current results support an averaging approach and underscore the importance of understanding the constructs assessed by violence risk measures.

Applying crime scene analysis to the prediction of sexual recidivism in stranger rapes.

The current study sought to improve the predictive accuracy of sexual recidivism using the Static-99 risk assessment tool by the addition of detailed crime scene analysis (CSA). CSA was carried out using a Behavioral Thematic Analysis (BTA) approach, the gold-standard in CSA. BTA was conducted on a sample of 167 stranger rape cases using nonmetric multidimensional scaling (MDS). The BTA procedure revealed three behavioral themes of hostility, criminality, and sexual exploitation, consistent with previous research in sexual offending CSA. Logistic regression analysis indicated that the criminality theme was significantly predictive of sexual recidivism and also significantly correlated with previous sexual offense history. Further, the criminality theme led to a significant increase in the incremental validity of the Static-99 actuarial risk assessment instrument for the prediction of sexual recidivism.

The significance of offending behavior for predicting sexual recidivism among sex offenders of various age groups.

Based on a sample of 682 male sex offenders, this study investigated variables of the offending behavior for predicting sexual recidivism in different age groups. The sex offenders were allocated into four age groups. For each group, those characteristics of offending behavior showing a significant bivariate correlation with sexual recidivism were extracted. Using logistic regression, we then analyzed their incremental validity above and beyond a previously developed Crime Scene Behavior Risk (CBR)-Score, which measures the risk of sexual recidivism without taking into account the offenders' age (Dahle, Biedermann, Gallasch-Nemitz, & Janka, 2010). Age-specific offending behavior variables with incremental validity were combined with the general CBR-Score into age-specific scores and examined for their predictive accuracy. We also analyzed the extent in which these age-specific scores showed incremental validity above and beyond the Static-99 (Hanson & Thornton, 1999). For three of the four age groups, age-specific Crime Scene Behavior Risk-Scores could be determined which were incrementally valid above and beyond the Static-99. Predictive accuracy varied between AUC=.74 and AUC=.90 (r=.28 to r=.49) depending on age group. The results are discussed within context of recent findings on the latent dimensions of actuarial risk assessment variables.